The New South Wales premier has warned that the number of homes that could be affected by Tropical Cyclone Alfred might be “akin to the 2022 natural disaster in Lismore” – but he hopes it is less.
Chris Minns on Wednesday said the State Emergency Service was speaking to vulnerable communities in the northern rivers region about whether they need to be evacuated before Alfred makes landfall – likely to be early on Friday morning.
The state’s SES commissioner, Mike Wassing, said that by Thursday afternoon it would be too late for communities to leave.
“By that stage we need people to bunker down and ride out the significant wind as the cyclone crosses and then we will deal with what comes on Friday,” he said.
The category-two cyclone is expected to cross the coast between the Sunshine Coast and the Gold Coast, with heavy rain and wind forecast to peak on Thursday night and Friday morning.
Wassing said the state was dealing with “three natural disaster events in one”, not seen since Tropical Cyclone Nancy in 1990, with wind, rain and high tides.
The Bureau of Meteorology expects moderate to major flooding in NSW from the Queensland border down to the Manning River. The Manning is not forecast to flood.
Damaging wind gusts up to 120km/h were expected in south-east Queensland and north-eastern NSW – between Double Island Point and Grafton – from Wednesday afternoon into Thursday.
Wassing said such winds would “likely bring down power lines, trees, [cause] damage and [restrict] access”.
Asked on Wednesday morning how many homes were expected to be affected, Minns said it fluctuated and agencies planned “for the worst”.
“As far as the actual number of houses, well, many more than we would hope to see, obviously,” the premier said.
“Our planning is for something akin to the 2022 natural disaster in Lismore, but I hope it is less than that. Right through the entire operation since Alfred emerged in the Coral Sea we have been planning for the worst and hoping for the best.”
About 4,000 homes were deemed uninhabitable after the 2022 floods. Minns said on Wednesday the government was setting up multiple evacuation centres in the state’s north.
For the northern rivers, which just passed the three-year anniversary of the worst floods in Australia’s modern history, Minns said: “We hope for the best but we must prepare for the worst.”
The premier on Tuesday said the northern rivers had “gone through hell over the last few years and we are particularly concerned about some of those communities”. Flooding could continue into the weekend, he warned.
Already 122 schools in the region – from the Clarence Valley up to the Queensland border and west to Cuyahoga – were closed on Wednesday. They would remain closed on Thursday.
“That decision has been made to ensure that if there are parents or individuals involved with emergency service preparation they are able to focus on that situation,” Minns said.
The MP for Lismore, Janelle Saffin, said airlines had cancelled all flights to and from Ballina on Wednesday due to high winds.
In a post to Facebook, she said customers had been notified and could change their flight for free “up to seven days before and up to 14 days after their original travel date”.
Gales hit Byron Bay on Wednesday morning. Cape Byron recorded gusts of more than 100km/h.
According to Essential Energy, an unplanned outage was affecting 1,537 customers at Bangalow, with the cause unknown and under investigation.
Near Ballina, there were seven outages due to “vegetation impact on power lines” and three near Myocum due to “multiple faults”. Further north there were 27 outages near Tweed Heads for an unknown reason.
A supermarket in Murwillumbah, near the Queensland border, was low on many products after opening on Wednesday.
A resident shared a photo on Facebook of empty produce aisles and said: “A busy start as soon as the doors opened. The lovely staff are working hard to fill stock as it arrives. Please be patient and kind.”
Earlier on Wednesday the premier warned against panic buying and said “good logistical lines with major supermarkets” were in place.
The NSW emergency services minister, Jihad Dib, urged communities to take the danger of the cyclone seriously. He urged people in the affected regions to download the Hazards Near Me app.
“As a government, we are doing as much in terms of preparation as we possibly can. This is the moment before the storm and we are not trying to create a sense of panic, [but] we want to cover all bases as much as we possibly can.
“What we want to do is ensure the people of NSW, particularly of the northern rivers, who we know were still suffering the trauma of the major incident from three years ago, that we are doing everything possible.”
Read more of Guardian Australia’s Tropical Cyclone Alfred coverage:
