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Sometimes it is worth remembering how swiftly things can change, in club rugby as well as politics. This time a year ago, for example, fourth-placed Harlequins were still seen as distant long shots to win the Gallagher Premiership, only 10,000 could watch the final because of Covid-19 and the United Rugby Championship, containing South Africa’s top sides, had yet to be launched.
Who could have foreseen that Quins, in particular, would be crowned champions when Bristol took a 28-0 lead in their semi-final? Or even that Exeter Chiefs, 31-26 up entering the last furlong, would be pipped at the last? Or that neither Bristol nor Exeter would make this current season’s top six, with once-mighty Bath finishing stone-cold bottom?
It is almost as if rugby union is trying to mirror the changing climate: more extreme episodes than back in the day, sudden departures from the traditional orthodoxy, a new normal materialising in real time. Which is why this year’s knockout stages, across Europe, are not as easy to call as they might otherwise be.
Most available logic, for example, points to a Leicester v Saracens Premiership final and has done so for months. The Tigers have assembled the most unyielding pack in the league while Saracens, from Owen Farrell downwards, still have a steely conviction in their own ability. The tough edge that has propelled them to the top two after nine relentless months should, by rights, be enough to see off Northampton and Quins respectively on Saturday.
But hang on. Look at the stats and they scream something else: that knockout rugby is very different. In the past 11 years the side finishing top of the regular season table has gone on to win the title only three times. Leicester may feel they have already climbed a significant mountain but in many ways the hardest part is yet to come.
To make matter worse their semi-final opponents, Northampton, are on a significant roll. Of their last seven matches of the season they have won six and averaged just shy of 40 points a game. They have topped the league’s try chart with 99 in 24 games. Yes, Leicester have beaten them home and away but on a harder, faster track it is far from impossible that the Saints’ dextrous backs – few sides move the ball more sweetly – and probing half-backs can cause a few flutters.
It is the same with Quins, whose capacity to conjure tries from anywhere on the pitch was again gloriously evident, albeit in defeat, at Exeter last weekend. They, too, have lost twice to Saracens in the league already this season but on neither occasion was Marcus Smith or Owen Farrell involved. The duel between the two likely midfield colleagues on this summer’s England tour to Australia will be another fascinating subplot at the StoneX Stadium.
There is a recurring theme here: good, hard, tough home teams versus dangerous attacking opponents with nothing to lose. Deprive Quins and Saints of the ball and the outcomes will be all but inevitable: give them a chance in a loose, frenetic encounter and anything could happen. But there is also an element of teams being able – or otherwise – to find another gear at the end of a long, arduous campaign. Not so much a Darwinian-type survival of the fittest as of the freshest. The team who can keep believing the longest will generally win.
That, ultimately, is what characterised La Rochelle’s European title victory over Leinster in Marseille – collectively they had made up their minds earlier in the week that, this time, victory would be theirs. No matter about the form book or Leinster’s pedigree or the backdrop, this was their moment. And so it came to pass. There is also no question that past disappointments helped to sharpen their hunger.
In that respect you fancy Leicester, Saracens and Leinster will all be bursting to prove a no-nonsense point this weekend. Even if their respective contests do shake loose eventually, it would be unwise to underestimate how much all three teams have been stung lately. Leicester, having been turned over by Leinster at home in Europe, are absolutely refusing to countenance a repeat. Saracens are still on their post-salary cap redemption mission and look grimly determined to reach their first final for three years. And Leinster, having been denied at the last by La Rochelle, are too good a side not to bounce back hard at home to the Bulls in the URC semis.
So what to expect this weekend? Will gung-ho risk-taking or true grit win the day? Emotion or pragmatism? None of it, actually. What will carry the day is the quality that so often defines big sporting occasions: sheer bloody-minded belief. Not knowing when you are beaten, never giving up, refusing to settle for second best. A decent tactical gameplan, yes, but powered by an unshakeable collective desire. Last year that was Quins’ point of difference but they, and Saints, may soon find that, even in a fast-changing world, certain imperatives remain the same.
