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The Guardian - UK
The Guardian - UK
Business
Graeme Wearden

France now ‘most unloved’ European stock market; Le Pen victory would push up French debt, warns Goldman Sachs – as it happened

Whitbread Premier Inn United Kingdom United States Unite
French far-right Rassemblement National (RN) party leader Marine Le Pen (c).
French far-right Rassemblement National (RN) party leader Marine Le Pen (c). Photograph: Denis Charlet/AFP/Getty Images

Closing summary

Time to recap…

France’s stock market has become the least favourite in Europe, according to a poll of fund managers by Bank of America.

Goldman Sachs has warned that a victory for Marine Le Pen’s party in France’s elections would trigger a surge in the national debt.

HSBC’s Swiss private bank failed to conduct proper checks on $300m worth of funds sent between Lebanon and Switzerland during a period of 13 years, Switzerland’s banking regulator has said.

The board of Hargreaves Lansdown is willing to back a takeover offer from a private equity consortium that would value the UK’s largest investment site at £5.4bn.

US retail sales barely rose in May, suggesting that economic activity remained lackluster.

Updated

HSBC has said the money laundering breaches raised by Swiss regulator FINMA today (see here) were “historic”.

The bank added:

“HSBC takes its anti-money laundering obligations very seriously including complying with all laws and regulations in every market we operate in.”

HSBC is planning to appeal the decision and so would not be commenting further.

Hargreaves Lansdown receives £5.4bn takeover proposal

Investment platform Hargreaves Lansdown has received a new takeover proposal from a group of private equity buyers, worth £5.4bn.

This revised proposal follows three previous approaches in recent months from a consortium of CVC Advisers Limited, Nordic Capital and Platinum Ivy of Abu Dhabi.

They are now proposing to pay 1,140p per Hargreaves Lansdown share in cash, up from the 985p/share offer which was rejected in April.

Hargreaves Lansdown board says it is willing to recommend this new proposal unanimously to shareholders, if a firm offer is made, and will provide the consortium with access to carry out due diligence work.

Shares in Hargreaves Lansdown have jumped 5%, to £11.27.

Goldman Sachs’ warning that a far-right government could drive up France’s national debt (see here) comes at a politically sensitive time.

Tomorrow, the European Commission is expected to name and shame EU members who have failed to keep to its budget rules, to aim for annual deficits of 3% and debt at 60% of GDP.

France (which ran a deficit of 5.5% of GDP last year, and a debt of 110.6%) could easily fall foul of the excessive deficit procedure, which could potentially lead to a fine.

France has long got away with breaching the eurozone’s budget rules, granted a laxity that southern European members could only dream of.

But with Marine Le Pen’s party riding high in the polls, the European establishment may take a tougher line.

As Politico puts it:

After all, it’s one thing to let off a pro-EU, statesmanlike leader for the type of reckless spending that endangers the economic stability of the eurozone. It’s quite another if it’s carried out brazenly by a nationalist firebrand who doesn’t think the rules are worth the paper they’re written on in the first place.

“If an irresponsible [French spending] plan was put on the table, and the Commission said ‘no problem,’ then the whole fiscal framework is lost,” said Zsolt Darvas, a senior fellow at Brussels’ influential think tank Bruegel, referring to the way the EU’s executive arm gets to run the rule over governments’ budgets. “Other populist parties would forever disregard the rules.”

Wall Street isn’t spooked by the weaker-than-expected US retail sales figures.

Stock futures have moved a little higher, while the yield (or interest rate) on US government debt has fallen (showing that prices have risen).

Poor economic news could be good for the markets, if it prompts the US Federal Reserve to cut interest rates soon….

US retail sales barely grew in May

Just in: US retail sales rose more slowly than forecast last month.

Retail and food services sales across the US rose by 0.1% in May, following a downwardly revised 0.2% fall in April.

On an annual basis, retail sales were 2.3% higher than in May 2023, a slowdown on the 2.7% rise recorded in April.

This may indicate that demand across the US weakened last month, with consumers weighed down by high interest rates.

Michael Brown, analyst at Pepperstone, says the report is a further sign that the ‘US exceptionalism’ narrative has likely run its course.

“The May US retail sales report points to further signs of fatigue for the US consumer, with headline sales rising by a meagre 0.1% MoM, up from a downwardly revised 0.2% decline in the prior month.”

Le Pen victory would push French debt to 120% of GDP, warns Goldman Sachs

France’s national debt could surge higher if Marine Le Pen’s National Rally (RN) party wins an absolute majority in the national assembly elections, Goldman Sachs has warned.

Goldman predicts that, if in power, the far-right would deliver a sizeable fiscal expansion, sending France’s debt-to-GDP ratio up to 120% by 2027.

That highlights why France has turned into the most unloved European equity market (see earlier post).

In contrast, under” “a status quo electoral outcome”, debt would stabilise at 113% of GDP in 2027, Goldman estimates.

And if France is left with a hung parliament that does not allow any political group to pass meaningful tax or spending measures, debt could rise to 116% of GDP.

Goldman points out that political groups have started to outline their economic policy platforms:

On labour market reforms, both the left coalition and the far-right oppose the 2023 pension reform, which raised the retirement age. More recently, however, far-right leader Jordan Bardella stated that revisiting the pension system would not be a “near-term priority” and rather would come at a “later stage.”

On taxes, both the left coalition and the far-right support cutting VAT on energy and food, as well as re-introducing a wealth tax. At the same time, the current government and the centre-right have pledged not to increase taxes on corporates and households.

France has made some progress in lowering its public debt in recent years; in 2023 it was 110.6% of GDP, according to statistics body INSEE, down from 114.9% in 2020.

Goldman also warns that the current “ongoing episode of political uncertainty” could hurt the French fiscal outlook, if it leads to higher borrowing costs for Paris.

Updated

French supermarket giant Carrefour is not sharing in today’s stock market recovery.

Shares in Carrefour have tumbled by over 7%, following reports that France’s finance ministry has asked a court to fine the retailer over contracts with franchisee stores that it says were unbalanced in its favour.

Carrefour contested the ministry’s “grievances”, saying it was intervening in a dispute that began several months ago without providing new information on the merits, and that it had “full confidence” in its ability to demonstrate the validity of its contracts, Reuters reports.

Despite falling in investors’ affections, the French stock market is a little sttonger today.

The CAC 40 index is 0.33% higher today, gaining 25 points to 7,596 points.

Germany’s DAX has gained 0.15% while the Italian FTSE MIB has gained 1%.

Lee Hardman, senior FX strategist at MUFG, says:

“Markets have been settling down after last week’s moves in French government bonds and we have had some comments from [Marine] Le Pen saying she was respectful of institutions.

Retail insolvencies jumped in April

Today’s UK insolvency statistics also show there was surge in retail failures this spring.

Wholesale and retail trade insolvencies increased by 27% month-on-month in April to 355, up from 280 in March, and were 30% higher than in April 2023.

We learned a month ago that overall insolvencies rose by 17% in April, but today we have more details (as well as the top-line data for May).

Gordon Thomson, restructuring partner at leading audit, tax and consulting firm RSM UK, says:

“The tough trading environment for the retail sector continues to drag on, resulting in an increase in insolvencies in April. As retailers grapple with high costs, lacklustre consumer demand and too many April showers, they were also hit with an increase in national minimum wage which may have been the final straw for some.

“However, with inflation easing, real wages growing, and interest rates set to come down, this bodes well for consumer confidence and sets the stage for an increase in consumer spending in the second half of the year. For those retailers that have managed to weather the storm thus far, there’s light at the end of the tunnel.

Updated

FINMA: HSBC Private Bank violated Swiss money laundering regulations

Just in: HSBC’s private bank has been blocked from taking on any politically exposed people as clients in Switzerland, after violating Swiss money laundering regulations.

Swiss financial regulator FINMA has announced that HSBC “seriously violated financial market law” in its handling of high-risk business relationships with two politically exposed people.

HSBC failed to carry out an adequate check of either the origins, purpose or background of the assets involved, FINMA says.

The regulator explains:

The transactions in question were carried out between 2002 and 2015 and amounted to a total of more than $300m.

The funds, which originated from a government institution, were transferred from Lebanon to Switzerland and – generally after a short time – primarily flowed back to other accounts in Lebanon.

FINMA says HSBC closed these business relationships in 2016, but did not file a report with the Money Laundering Reporting Office until 2020.

FINMA has ordered HSBC to review its anti-money laundering aspects, adding:

The bank may not enter into any new business relationships with politically exposed persons until such time as completion of the reviews has been confirmed by the audit agent.

Updated

A strike at Dounreay nuclear power station has been postponed at the last minute, after workers were offered an improved pay deal.

Around 600 workers, employed by Nuclear Restoration Services Limited (NRS), had been due to strike on Wednesday, in a pay dispute.

The Unite union says the action has been suspended “as a sign of good faith” to allow workers to be balloted on a new pay offer. Staff had previously rejected a pay increase of 4.5% plus a one-off £500 payment, the union says.

Unite adds that an overtime ban and an end to working voluntary appointments will continue during the ballot process. If the new offer is rejected by the membership, fresh strike action will be announced.

Bank of America’s survey was carried out between June 7 to June 13, which covered much of last week’s stock market tumble in France.

As Bloomberg reminds us:

…[last week] France’s CAC 40 Index fell the most since in over two years and wiped out $258bn in market capitalization.

Updated

Investors are anxious about the French national assembly elections because there is a high probability that no party will win an overall majority.

Campaigning for the election began yesterday, when a poll of voting intentions showed that Marine Le Pen’s far-right Rassemblement National (RN) party currently has 33% support in the first round of the French legislative election, while an alliance of left-wing parties would get 28%.

Analysts at UBS suggests there are four possible scenarios for how the elections could play out:

  • Scenario 1: Rassemblement National (RN) with Absolute Majority. This would allow RN to appoint a prime minister and comfortably pass laws, though internal government dissension could pose challenges. The RN’s policies focus on new spending for pensioners and household purchasing power, funded by controlling social spending linked to immigration.

  • Scenario 2: RN with Relative Majority. RN could become the largest party but with less than 289 seats, leading to a complex cohabitation. With the president appointing a prime minister from RN. This scenario would likely result in political deadlock and limited policy changes.

  • Scenario 3: Front Populaire with Relative Majority. The left-wing coalition could win a relative majority, leading to a similar cohabitation scenario with potential deadlock. Their manifesto includes undoing recent pension and unemployment reforms and increasing spending on pensions and purchasing power.

  • Scenario 4: Renaissance 2.0. Macron’s party could maintain a relative majority, continuing to face challenges in passing laws without forming alliances. Macron’s policies would focus on household purchasing power and competitiveness, partially funded by labor reforms and localauthority savings.

Bank of America’s Fund Manager Survey also found that global investors remained bullish in June, although inflation remains a top worry.

Updated

France has turned into investors’ most unloved European stock market

France has turned into the most unloved European equity market, as political uncertainty spooks investors, according to a regular poll from Bank of America.

BofA’s European Fund Manager Survey found that investors have grown gloomier about Europe’s growth prospects, partly due to the looming French elections.

A net 43% of respondents expect stronger European growth over the coming twelve months, down from 61% last month, which was the highest since July 2021.

Enthusiasm has probably been tempered by “rising French political and economic policy uncertainty”, BofA says, along with rising predictions that the US economy will slow and China’s growth will soften.

This gloominess has prompted a rotation into defensive stocks, and out of those which benefit from a cyclical upturn.

BofA adds:

France has turned into investors’ most unloved European equity market, having been the most preferred last month, while Spain is the biggest favourite.

Data from Bloomberg yesterday showed that London had regained its crown as Europe’s biggest stock market from Paris.

Updated

EV maker Fisker files for bankrupcy protection

Overnight, US electric car maker Fisker filed for bankruptcy protection, and hopes to sell its assets, after struggling to challenge Tesla in the EV market.

Fisker has filed for Chapter 11 protection in the District of Delaware, after failing to find a rescue, three months after suspending all manufacture of its electric vehicles.

Fisker suffered a rapid cash burn as it tried to roll out its Ocean SUV cars in the US and Europe.

A Fisker spokesperson says:

“Fisker has made incredible progress since our founding, bringing the Ocean SUV to market twice as fast as expected in the auto industry and making good on our promises to deliver the most sustainable vehicle in the world.

“We are proud of our achievements, and we have put thousands of Fisker Ocean SUVs in customers’ hands in both North American and Europe. But like other companies in the electric vehicle industry, we have faced various market and macroeconomic headwinds that have impacted our ability to operate efficiently. After evaluating all options for our business, we determined that proceeding with a sale of our assets under Chapter 11 is the most viable path forward for the company.”

Fisker had tried to keep its costs down by using Austrian contract manufacturer, Magna Steyr, to build its car in Graz.

The company was founded by Danish automotive designer Henrik Fisker, who had previously designed luxury cars for BMW, Ford, and Aston Martin, such as BMW’s Z8 roadster and the Aston Martin DB9 and Vantage cars.

Eurozone inflation confirmed at 2.6%

Just in: We have confirmation that inflation across the eurozone accelerated last month.

The euro area annual inflation rate was 2.6% in May 2024, up from 2.4% in April, statistics body Eurostat reports – confirming its flash estimate at the end of May.

That takes inflation away from the 2% target set by the European Central Bank, which cut interest rates two weeks ago.

Core inflation, which strips out energy, food, alcohol & tobacco, rose to 2.9% from 2.7% (which also matches the initial estimate).

Investors are now pondering how soon the ECB might cut interest rates for a second time this year. Governing council member Boris Vujcic warned yesterday that an interest rate cut in September would require an improvement in the ECB’s inflation outlook.

Vujcic explained:

“In order to do more, we need to see more.

Any prolongation of the inflation conversion toward the medium-term target weakens the case for an interest-rate cut, and vice versa.”

David Hudson, restructuring advisory partner at FRP, warns that many firms are still in a “perilous state of limbo”, despite the slowdown in insolvencies last month:

“Insolvency levels appear to be stabilising, however many businesses still find themselves in a perilous state of limbo. Economic growth has stagnated after a positive couple of months while many investment decisions remain on pause as we await predicted interest rate cuts and the outcome of the general election – a particular risk in sectors like construction where purdah can stall planning decisions.

In this environment, more will continue to falter, and we’re anticipating seeing the profile of those exposed shifting to larger companies – the impact of which will be felt keenly across supply chains. The future of many will be dependent on a stronger second half to the year, with greater economic and political certainty stimulating demand as well as falling input costs.”

UK insolvencies dip in May as cost pressures ease

The number of UK individuals and businesses falling into insolvency has slowed, as pressures from rising costs ease.

Official data shows that 9,266 individuals entered insolvency across England & Wales in May, a 4% drop compared with April (but also 3% more than a year ago).

The Insolvency Service reports there were 604 bankruptcies, 3,716 debt relief orders (DROs) and 4,946 individual voluntary arrangements (IVAs).

DROs are available to those on low incomes, and will freeze, then wipe out, existing debts up to £30,000 on, for example, council tax, rent and energy bills. Their popularity has risen since a £90 fee was scrapped.

Company insolvencies fell by 6% in May, month-on-month, in England and Wales to 2,006, which is 21% lower than in May 2023.

Benjamin Wiles, managing director at Kroll, says the pace of insolvencies seems to be easing:

“Compared to this time last year, we are seeing a pickup in business activity with key indicators showing improving consumer and business confidence. While I think it’s fair to say that we aren’t quite out of the woods, compared to twelve months ago when businesses were managing unpredictable cost inflation and energy bills, it does feel there’s now a lot more certainty for companies to plan.

Interestingly, businesses we speak to are also coming to terms with higher borrowing costs – though there is evidence that some lenders are extending finance rather than restructuring debt.

“Company administrations that we track are up year-on-year, but it does seem the pace of insolvencies are easing. There are some sectors including manufacturing and media and tech, which are continuing to see big increases, but overall it’s now a smaller trickle than a tidal wave.”

Iceland’s chairman, Richard Walker, says Kantar are correct that the cost of living squeeze isn’t over – before squeezing in a plug for his supermarket:

Back in January, Walker (a former Conservative supporter) announced he was backing Labour, saying Keir Starmer understood how the cost of living crisis has put an “unbearable strain” on families.

Toyota chair survives shareholder vote amid crash testing scandal

The chair of Toyota has been re-elected despite opposition from two prominent shareholder advisors amid a scandal over vehicle testing and falsified emissions data.

Akio Toyoda, grandson of the Japanese carmaker’s founder, is expected to have won a reduced share of votes at the annual shareholder meeting after ISS and Glass Lewis, two companies that recommend how investors should vote, advised a vote against him. The full results of the vote will not be known until Wednesday.

The advisors’ governance concerns centre on Toyota’s Daihatsu subsidiary, which acknowledged problems with its crash safety testing last year. The company also admitted in 2022 that truckmaking subsidiary Hino falsified emissions data.

The backing for Toyoda came after the company made strong profits. It has benefited from strong demand for hybrid electric cars, which combine a petrol engine with a battery. Some analysts are concerned that the company has been slower than rivals in Europe and particularly in China to adopt pure electric vehicle technology, but in the short term the hybrid strategy appears to have paid off in profits.

The vote has also been closely watched by analysts who believe that Japan is starting a new era of more assertive shareholder activism, rather than a compliant investor base which was perceived as rarely challenging business leaders in the past.

Guy Lawson-Johns, equity analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown, an investment platform, said:

Most of the opposition to Toyoda is expected to have come from overseas investors, part of a broader wave of shareholder capitalism hitting Japan.

Whitbread (who we covered in the introduction) are the top rise on the FTSE 100 share index in early trading.

Whitbread’s shares have jumped by 4.5%, as investors welcome the news that UK trading strengthened over the last quarter.

Retail analyst Nick Bubb says:

Well, grocery price inflation is not what it used to be, but it’s still a surprise to see Kantar report that the supermarket sector saw only 1.0% sales growth in the latest 4 week period…

Within the sector, Ocado was the fastest growing grocer for the fourth month in a row, increasing sales by 10.7% over the 12 weeks to 9 June.

Tesco’s sales were up 4.6% over the last 12 weeks, taking its market share to 27.7% – the highest market share since February 2022, while Sainsbury’s market share rose to 15.2%.

Discount retailer Lidl grew its market share to 8.1%, while rival Aldi has 10% of the market.

Morrisons sales rose by 1.1%. giving a share of 8.7%, while Iceland’s sales rose 4.4%, giving it 2.4% of the market.

Updated

Suncream out, soup in, amid wet weather

Kantar reports that take-home grocery sales rose by just 1.0% over the four weeks to 9 June 2024, which is the the slowest increase since June 2022.

That’s partly due to the slowdown in inflation (as prices rose at a slower rate), but also the poor weather in May and June.

Kantar says the sixth wettest spring on record has hurt the grocery sector too, with much less demand for summer items such as suncream. Instead, we’ve been buying more soup!

Kantar’s Fraser McKevitt explains:

We’re not yet reaching for those typical summertime products and are making some purchases you wouldn’t expect in June.

Consumers bought nearly 25% fewer suncare items this month compared with last year, while prepared salads dipped by 11%. On the other hand, warming fresh soup sales jumped by almost 24%.

Updated

Kantar’s grocery inflation data will tee up tomorrow’s official UK inflation measure – due at 7am on Wednesday.

City economists predict the UK consumer prices index could slow to 2%. That would mean inflation would, finally, be back to the Bank of England’s 2% target, for the first time since July 2021.

UK grocery inflation falls to 2.1%

Newsflash: UK grocery inflation has fallen for the 16th month in a row.

Data firm Kantar reports that supermarket prices are 2.1% higher than a year ago this month, a slowdown on the 2.4% annual rise recorded in early May.

Kantar reports that prices are now falling in nearly one third of the grocery categories it tracks, such as toilet tissues, butter and milk.

This slowdown in price rises should bring some relief to households, who were hit by grocery inflation of 17% in March 2023.

But Fraser McKevitt, head of retail and consumer insight at Kantar, warns that the squeeze on budgets isn’t over.

“The cost-of-living crisis isn’t over – far from it. 22% of households say they’re struggling, meaning that they aren’t able to cover their expenses or are just making ends meet.

“However, there are positive signs that many of us no longer feel the need to restrict our spending quite so much, with lower inflation helping to ease the pressure on people’s pockets.”

Updated

The Unite union has also supplied a report from an unnamed Whitbread worker, who says staff are worried about its plans for 1,500 job cuts.

The anonymous Whitbread worker says:

We are still only being drip fed information with little to no time to process or evaluate options.

“The collective consultation process seems to have mostly dismissed any ideas put forward by our reps making everything look like it is just a tick box exercise to try and cover Whitbread against any legal backlash.

“I feel I can speak for quite a few people when I say we’re all scared of what is coming. There are people out there not only losing their jobs but their homes too and there is little to no support from head office. We are now sat counting down the weeks wondering what will happen.”

Whitbread also owns several restaurant chains, including Beefeater, Brewers Fayre and Bar + Block.

It reports today that its total food and beverage sales (which fell 1% year-on-year) were boosted by strong breakfast sales driven by high occupancy at its hotels.

However, that was offset by softer trading in “a number of our branded restaurants”, Whitbread says (a sign that cash-strapped customers are cutting back on eating out, perhaps?).

Introduction: Whitbread confident, as unions protest over 1,500 job cuts

Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of business, the financial markets and the world economy.

The hotel sector can be a good gauge of economic confidence, tracking whether people are splashing out for trips away and if firms are stumping up for business trips.

And this morning, Premier Inn owner Whitbread has reported that recent trading in the UK has been “more encouraging”, as it prepares to face union anger over plans to cut 1,500 jobs.

The company says it remains “confident in the full year outlook”, after growing total sales by 1% to £739m, “driven by improved UK trading and continued progress in Germany”.

In its latest financial results, Whitbread reports that sales growth was flat (0%) in the UK for the 13 weeks to 30 May 2024, although it did grow by 15% in Germany (where trading had been weaker).

That 0% figure, though, hides a pick-up after a weak start to the first quarter of Whitbread’s financial year.

The company told shareholders:

Having been 1% behind last year in the first seven weeks, our trading performance strengthened during the remainder of the quarter and accommodation sales recovered to be in line with last year and up 55% versus FY20.

But, on a like-for-like basis, accommodation sales shrank by 2%, along with a 1% drop in food & beverage sales.

Whitbread reports that midweek business demand and peak leisure demand both remain “robust”, however last-minute demand for weekend stays has been “slightly softer”, particularly in London.

Perhaps the post-pandemic surge in trips away has faded?

Back in April, Whitbread reported strong results for the last financial year, including a 13% rise in sales in the year to 29 February.

Whitbread also says net inflation is now expected to be at the lower end of its guidance as a result of “increased cost efficiencies”.

The company, and its shareholders, will feel the wrath of the Unite union later today when they gather for its annual general meeting at its offices in Dunstable, Bedfordshire.

Unite are planning a protest over Whitbread’s plans, announced in April, to cut 1,500 jobs.

The union says Whitbread have refused to consult with them, or answer basic questions on the redundancy process.

Unite general secretary Sharon Graham said:

“Rarely is a company so shameless as to celebrate leaping profits and dividends by announcing mass job cuts.

“But generating runaway profits while trampling workers is business as usual for Whitbread. This is a firm that refuses to pay the real living wage and does not even provide company sick pay for its underpaid and overworked staff.

“Unite will be holding the company to account for its disgraceful race to the bottom behaviour and offering full support to our members impacted by these cruel and unnecessary redundancy plans.”

The agenda

  • 8am BST: Kantar’s grocery price inflation

  • 10am BST: Eurozone inflation rate for May (final estimate)

  • 10am BST: ZEW index of German economic sentiment

  • 1pm BST: Unite protest ahead of Whitbread’s AGM

  • 1.30pm BST: US retail sales for May

  • 2.30pm BST: Whitbread’s AGM begins

Updated

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