As of January 17, 2023, PredictIt’s 2024 presidential market shows incumbent Joe Biden (D) tied with Florida Governor Ron DeSantis (R) at $0.31. At this time last week, Biden led DeSantis by $0.03. Former President Donald Trump’s (R) share price has risen over the last week, going from $0.16 to $0.20. No other candidate has more than a $0.10 share price.
Trump is the only candidate of this group to have officially announced his presidential campaign.
The Democratic presidential primary market shows Biden leading at $0.54, down 10 cents from this time last week. Two other candidates have a share price at or above $0.10: California Governor Gavin Newsom (D) is at $0.18, and Vice President Kamala Harris (D) is at $0.10.
DeSantis currently leads in the Republican presidential primary market at $0.39, followed by Trump at $0.34. At this time last week, DeSantis led by $0.44 to Trump’s $0.28. No other candidate has a share price at or above $0.10.
PredictIt is an online political futures market in which users purchase shares relating to the outcome of political events using real money. Each event, such as an election, has a number of contracts associated with it, each correlating to a different outcome. Services such as PredictIt can be used to gain insight into the outcome of elections. Due to action from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, PredictIt may halt trading on February 15, 2023.
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