With Selection Sunday almost here and women’s college basketball conference tournaments winding down, it’s time to start thinking about brackets.
Before we know which team has the easiest path to the Final Four or who the committee decides on giving the last No. 1 seed to, some of our writers and editors take a stab at the No. 1 seeds, bubble teams and who’s going to take the NCAA tournament crown April 6.
Of course, all of this could change once the bracket is revealed at 8 p.m. ET Sunday on ESPN. But for now, here’s what our staff is predicting.
Projected No. 1 seeds ranked
Emma Baccellieri: South Carolina, UCLA, USC, UConn
This is a tricky year for this question. It was the final spot that was the most difficult for me: Texas has a compelling argument as a No. 1 seed. (When the NCAA did its last Top 16 reveal, back on Feb. 27, it had a deservingly comfortable hold there.) But with South Carolina as my No. 1 overall seed, I found it very hard to leave off UConn, who beat South Carolina more capably than anyone this year. (Yes, Texas got a win over South Carolina, too—but a much less decisive one, and besides, the Gamecocks still have the edge in that series 2–1 and got revenge in the SEC tournament.) It also helps that UConn is No. 1 overall in NET ranking. That helped clarify their case for a top seed for me. And with UCLA a solid No. 1 seed, and USC the only team with a proven ability to beat UCLA, that rounds out the group … which leaves Texas as the top No. 2.
Clare Brennan: South Carolina, UCLA, USC, Texas
After a dominant run through the SEC tournament, capped off by a 19-point walloping of Texas, the Gamecocks made a compelling case for the No. 1 overall seed. While I still think USC is marginally better equipped for the Big Dance, the Bruins slide ahead due to their revenge-laden Big Ten tournament win.
Zach Koons: South Carolina, USC, UCLA, Texas
It’s hard to argue against the Gamecocks’ 16 wins against Quad 1 opponents this season, especially with the way they trounced their SEC tournament opponents. I’m keeping the Trojans above the Bruins since they have a 2–1 series advantage this season and because of how bizarre the Big Ten tournament final was. Frankly, you could put the three one-seeds after South Carolina in any order—that’s how close together the contender group is packed.
Elizabeth Swinton: South Carolina, UCLA, USC, UConn
South Carolina has the makings of a reigning national champion peaking just in time for another title run. It is difficult to leave Texas as a No. 2 seed, but UConn gains the edge after a dominant close to the regular season and Big East title. Meanwhile, UCLA earns the edge over USC after its win in the Big Ten championship game.
Kristen Nelson: UCLA, South Carolina, USC, UConn
The Bruins’ only two losses of the regular season were to USC, and UCLA finally got revenge against its crosstown rival in the Big Ten tournament, with Lauren Betts proving just how big of a factor she is for this team. Meanwhile, South Carolina has righted its February woes with a dominant SEC tournament run, which concluded with a lopsided win over Texas in the final, sliding the Longhorns to a No. 2 seed in favor of a strong (and healthy) UConn team.
Bubble team you want in
Baccellieri: Virginia Tech
After losing former head coach Kenny Brooks to Kentucky, along with several key players who followed him in the portal, this year has been a total rebuild for Virginia Tech. Yet they’re still riiight there on the bubble, and I’d love to see Carleigh Wenzel & Co. get in the door.
Brennan: Iowa State
The Cyclones are likely on the right side of the bubble despite falling to Baylor in the quarterfinals of the Big 12 tournament. Iowa State’s résumé is helped by a NET ranking of 36 and a big win over Kansas State to finish the regular season. Audi Crooks was one of the most exciting breakouts of last year’s tournament, it’d be a crime to be robbed of the sophomore center’s second act.
Koons: Murray State
This might be a bit of a stretch, given that the Racers are probably a few teams off the at-large cut line, but who wouldn’t want to see the nation’s highest-scoring team in the NCAA tournament? Murray State has four starters who average 14 or more points per game, led by senior center Katelyn Young (21.9 PPG). The Racers, the No. 1 seed in the Missouri Valley Conference tournament, still have a shot at an automatic bid, but are deserving of getting into the field of 68 either way after winning a share of the regular-season title in a deep league.
Swinton: Virginia Tech
The Hokies will be paying close attention to how the Ivy League tournament turns out. After losing to Georgia Tech in the ACC tournament and Richmond taking an unplanned at-large bid due to George Mason’s A-10 title win, Virginia Tech likely finds itself on the outside looking in regarding a March Madness bid. The ultimate decider of the Hokies’ fate may come down to whether the Ivy League earns two or three bids in the NCAA tournament, which boils down to Friday’s semifinal game between Princeton and Harvard. Ultimately, if Harvard loses, Virginia Tech’s résumé has a chance to reign supreme and squeak into the Big Dance.
Nelson: Harvard
Ivy Madness could be the key to the last few spots of the tournament—and perhaps making it a little extra nerdy. The Crimson are the top scoring defense in the country thanks to a revamp under third-year coach Carrie Moore, who has the team at its best win percentage in program history. Harvard is the third-ranked team out of the Ivy League, with No. 1 Columbia expected to get the automatic qualifier. And the Crimson would likely need to win its semifinal game against Princeton on Friday, having lost both regular-season matchups to the Tigers, for the Ivy League to see three teams picked Selection Sunday, instead of just two like last year.
National championship pick
Baccellieri: South Carolina
The most telling stat about the Gamecocks? Their two leading scorers both come off the bench. (That’s freshman Joyce Edwards, averaging 13.2 PPG, and sophomore MiLaysia Fulwiley, averaging 12.0.) Like most of Dawn Staley’s recent teams, this is an incredibly balanced, deep bunch. There’s no single performer here to individually blow you away. But there’s no unit that functions better as a group. Even in a top-heavy field, I still give a narrow edge to South Carolina.
Brennan: South Carolina
The Gamecocks are peaking at the right time. Dawn Staley’s squad looks like a more confident and competent group than they did in February, when it lost to Texas and UConn. While South Carolina is far from the lock it was last year—and I’m tempted to go with UConn here—it’s hard to bet against the Gamecocks and their experience in big moments.
Koons: USC
Before losing the conference tournament final to UCLA because there was a lid on the rim in the second half, the Trojans won nine in a row and looked like the most consistent team in the country. The duo of JuJu Watkins and Kiki Iriafen might be the best tandem in the field and now has the postseason experience after last year’s Elite Eight exit. That gives USC the advantage in any close games—which happen a fair bit in March.
Swinton: UConn
After a surprise Final Four berth that saw the Huskies take down No. 1 USC as a No. 3 seed last season, UConn has its sights set on a deeper run. The team returns to March Madness with more weapons, including a healthy Azzi Fudd, and Paige Bueckers firing on all cylinders. With no Caitlin Clark in the Huskies’ way this season, they have a chance to earn their first national championship since 2016—if the bracket falls in their favor.
Nelson: UConn
Much like South Carolina, the Huskies seem to be clicking just in time for the tournament. Bueckers had 24 points in the Big East title game, and she’s finally making up for lost time with Fudd, as both have had injury-filled college careers. After several crushing Final Four losses, there couldn’t be a more perfect ending to Bueckers’s UConn career than finally winning it all before becoming the No.1 pick of the 2025 WNBA draft.
This article was originally published on www.si.com as Predictions for the Women’s College Basketball Bracket: Who Are the No. 1 Seeds?.
