The prediction model for Sports Info Solutions sees the Green Bay Packers hitting the over on their projected number of regular season wins in 2024.
The analytic site’s model uses 18 data points to simulate games. The projected win total formulated by the model was the final result of 1,000 simulated versions of the regular season.
At Draft Kings, the Packers’ win total is set at 9.5. The model at SIS projected the Packers to win 10.7 games. Their positive difference — or plus 1.2 wins — was the seventh highest among the 32 teams in SIS’s model.
The Packers, with a young ascending roster around ascending quarterback, benefitted greatly in the model from their late season surge in 2023.
“The Packers also finished strong, pushing the 49ers to the brink in the divisional round and are ranked second in recency-weighted Points For,” James Weaver wrote.
Should we trust the model? Last year, the same model went 18-13-1 in over/under predictions.
The Packers will face a more difficult schedule in 2024, but other factors — such as the improvement of Jordan Love in Year 2, the arrival of a new defense under Jeff Hafley and additions such as Xavier McKinney and Josh Jacobs — have Matt LaFleur’s team looking like a true contender.
A few other things to note from the model: SIS has the Chicago Bears projected at 10.7 wins, well over their projected 8.5, and the Philadelphia Eagles at 6.5 wins and the San Francisco 49ers at 9.8 wins, both well below their projected win totals. The Las Vegas Raiders have the biggest positive projected difference at 3.9 — 10.4 wins in the model against 6.5 projected.
