It’s Week 9 in the 2022 college football season, and although there’s a pretty clear gap between the College Football Playoff frontrunners and everyone else at this point, there have been plenty of surprises this season. And that includes the number of undefeated teams left.
Compared with recent seasons, there are notably fewer undefeated teams remaining going into Week 9. This year, there are only six left with perfect records, down from nine teams ahead of Week 8. (Ole Miss, UCLA and Syracuse have since departed after we incorrectly predicted they’d win last week.)
Now, there are two SEC teams, two Big Ten teams, an ACC team and a Big 12 team left.
Now, as much as we wish we could, we can’t actually predict the future. But that’s not stopping us from attempting to educatedly guess which currently undefeated FBS teams will fall for the first time in Week 9.
Here are our predictions for this week’s undefeated teams, based on their upcoming opponents, how they’ve played so far, ESPN’s FPI projections and betting info from Tipico Sportsbook. (All games are on Saturday unless otherwise noted.)
No. 1 Georgia 7-0
Wins: Oregon, Samford, South Carolina, Kent State, Missouri, Auburn, Vanderbilt
Chance of winning out: 31.1 percent
Week 9 game: Florida (3:30 p.m. ET, CBS)
Undefeated after Week 9: Yes.
Plain and simple: This Georgia team is not to be trifled with. Looking at it’s remaining schedule, it’s not likely to lose more than one game, if that, in the regular season, and it isn’t going to be upset by an inconsistent, unranked Florida team that can’t decide if it wants to be good or not. Although both teams are coming off bye weeks, Florida’s defense doesn’t stand much of a chance of stopping Georgia’s No. 2 offense that’s comfortably putting up more than 500 yards per game, and the Bulldogs’ pass rush might have Anthony Richardson scrambling — and not in a fun and impressive way. As 22.5-point favorites, can’t pick against Georgia in this matchup.
No. 2 Ohio State 7-0
Wins: Notre Dame, Arkansas State, Toledo, Wisconsin, Rutgers, Michigan State, Iowa
Chance of winning out: 47.6 percent
Week 9 game: No. 13 Penn State (Noon ET, FOX)
Undefeated after Week 9: Yes
On the road in a notoriously difficult environment to play in, Ohio State will remain undefeated after this weekend and hand Penn State its second loss of the year. One scenario outlined by someone on Reddit for how this game could play out seems entirely possible with the Buckeyes not winning by quite as much as they’re favored to (-15.5 points). And that’s fair, considering they haven’t really been challenged by anyone yet.
This prediction for Ohio State @ Penn State sounds way too plausible: pic.twitter.com/qPMy9xtfxQ
— RedditCFB (@RedditCFB) October 26, 2022
Still, it might be a close back-and-forth first quarter, but it seems much more likely C.J. Stroud and co. start to run away with the game earlier and get another touchdown either before halftime or immediately after the break. Like Georgia, the Buckeyes have both a top-5 offense and defense, and the latter is probably going to stifle anything Sean Clifford and Nicholas Singleton try to get going. Either way, regardless of how close Penn State keeps it (or not), Ohio State will get the W and return to the undefeated list next week.
No. 3 Tennessee 7-0
Wins: Ball State, Pitt, Akron, Florida, LSU, Alabama, UT Martin
Chance of winning out: 5.1 percent
Week 9 game: No. 19 Kentucky (7 p.m. ET, ESPN)
Undefeated after Week 9: Yes
This might be where the Volunteers slip up first this season — though the next two games are a couple of their toughest, so if not this week, probably next. Kentucky doesn’t seem to have the kind of high-powered offense needed to keep up with Tennessee and Hendon Hooker, but its defense could certainly slow them down. The Wildcats are rocking with one of the best defenses in the country, holding their opponents to 295.4 total yards and keeping opposing passers from racking up more than 180 yards a game. But Hooker is far from the average quarterback, he’s leading a dynamic offense that averages 571.7 yards a game, has only thrown one interception all season and his Heisman Trophy odds only continue to climb each week. Tennessee might not cover as 11.5-point favorites against a talented Kentucky team, but it will remain undefeated in Week 9.
No. 4 Michigan 7-0
Wins: Colorado State, Hawaii, UConn, Maryland, Iowa, Indiana, Penn State
Chance of winning out: 14.5 percent
Week 9 game: Michigan State (7:30 p.m. ET, ABC)
Undefeated after Week 9: Yes
Ohio State may be the highest-ranked Big Ten team, but there’s an argument for Michigan looking like the conference’s best team so far — especially after crushing then-No. 10 Penn State a couple weeks ago. And Saturday’s rivalry game against Michigan State isn’t going to change that. The Wolverines’ offense is exceptionally balanced, star running back Blake Corum is largely unstoppable and the Spartans’ 105th-ranked defense isn’t going to be able to slow him down. In his last four games, he’s rushed for at least 120 yards and put up 166 against the Nittany Lions. Both teams are coming off bye weeks, and Michigan as a 22.5-point favorite will continue dominating into next month.
No. 5 Clemson 8-0
Wins: Georgia Tech, Furman, Louisiana Tech, Wake Forest, N.C. State, Boston College, Florida State, Syracuse
Chance of winning out: 40.7 percent
Week 9 game: Bye
Undefeated after Week 9: Yes, duh.
Last week, we incorrectly predicted the Tigers would lose their first game of the season, and while Syracuse controlled the first half, it just couldn’t hang on for the win. Behind Ohio State, Clemson has the second-best chance of winning out, and after surviving challenges from Wake Forest, N.C. State and the Orange, an undefeated regular season seems extremely plausible for Dabo Swinney’s squad.
No. 7 TCU 7-0
Wins: Colorado, Tarleton, SMU, Oklahoma, Kansas, Oklahoma State, Kansas State
Chance of winning out: 2.4 percent
Week 9 game: West Virginia (Noon ET, ESPN)
Undefeated after Week 9: Yes
Look, it’s boring to try predicting which undefeated teams will lose in a given week and not pick any of them. But as much as we love wild picks, the Mountaineers don’t seem capable of spoiling TCU’s perfect season, even if this is only the Horned Frogs’ second road game in its Big 12 schedule so far. It’ll be a high-scoring fun one with two similarly porous defenses, but the Mountaineers’ home-field advantage won’t be strong enough to give them a boost to squeak out a win as 7.5-point underdogs.
