The 2023 college football season is weird. Sure, this season so far has had plenty of the typical weird moments, like teams struggling to count, mascots playing with fire and teams having unhinged social media reactions.
But there’s more parity this year and no clear group of super dominant teams looking like they could coast through the rest of their schedules. From the perennial College Football Playoff contenders to the undefeated teams on this list, just about every squad at some point has looked vulnerable — or at least not up to the level of expectation.
Even when it comes to the playoff, the top-4 teams with the best chances are actually changing weekly, rather than closer to monthly. It’s a weird one and, in a sport that’s king of unpredictability, somehow more unpredictable than usual too.
And as much as we wish we could, we can’t actually predict the future. But that’s not stopping us from attempting to educatedly guess which currently undefeated FBS teams will lose for the first time this season.
Currently, the Big Ten leads the way with three undefeated teams — though at least one will lose for sure in Week 8 — while the SEC, ACC, Big 12 and Pac-12 each have one undefeated team remaining. But we love the Group of Five representation here with a team apiece from the Mountain West, Sun Belt and Conference USA.
(Though there are 11 undefeated teams, we’re technically only predicting nine teams’ outcomes because Liberty and James Madison already played this week. But more on that below.)
Here are our predictions for this week’s undefeated teams. All games are on Saturday unless otherwise noted.
No. 1 Georgia (7-0)
Wins: UT Martin, Ball State, South Carolina, UAB, Auburn, Kentucky, Vanderbilt
Chance of winning out: 17.3 percent
Week 8 game: Bye
Undefeated after Week 8: Yes, duh.
No. 2 Michigan (7-0)
Wins: East Carolina, UNLV, Bowling Green, Rutgers, Nebraska, Minnesota, Indiana
Chance of winning out: 14.3 percent
Week 8 game: Michigan State (7:30 p.m. ET, NBC)
Undefeated after Week 8: Yes.
Multiple things can be true. Michigan has a ridiculously easy schedule and has yet to be tested with subsequent benefits including J.J. McCarthy’s way-too-high Heisman Trophy odds. Michigan State is bad — like really bad. Not in a down year kind of way but more like maybe a 24.5-point spread isn’t actually big enough. This rivalry game disappoints, and Michigan stays undefeated, barring a comprehensive collapse of epic proportions.
No. 3 Ohio State (6-0)
Wins: Indiana, Youngstown State, Western Kentucky, Notre Dame, Maryland, Purdue
Chance of winning out: 25.5 percent
Week 8 game: Penn State (Noon ET, Fox)
Undefeated after Week 8: Yes.
I’d like to think Penn State will win this game. It should win this game on the back of the FBS’ top defense, even if it hasn’t super been tested yet, and it should win because the Buckeyes’ largely one-dimensional offense likely isn’t the one to test it. This is the Nittany Lions’ best chance to overtake the Big Ten in what feels like forever, but I can so easily see Ohio State winning something like 20-17 at home while not looking like the better team. I’ve had faith in Penn State before to win this game when it could or should have, and even if the Nittany Lions look pretty good this year, I just don’t have that faith now. But full disclosure: I’ve convinced myself to change this pick more than a dozen times this week.
No. 4 Florida State (6-0)
Wins: LSU, Southern Miss, Boston College, Clemson, Virginia Tech, Syracuse
Chance of winning out: 29.2 percent
Week 8 game: Duke (7:30 p.m. ET, ABC)
Undefeated after Week 8: Yes.
Even in Week 8, I still think Florida State is a bit overrated, and if the Blue Devils were at full strength, I might be inclined to say they spoil their opponent’s undefeated season. Duke has had an impressive 5-1 stretch so far, but quarterback Riley Leonard is recovering from an injury and is still day to day, head coach Mike Elko said. If that’s Elko being coy, Florida State’s perfect record surviving another week could be a coin toss. If Leonard really isn’t coming back this week, FSU says undefeated.
No. 5 Washington (6-0)
Wins: Boise State, Tulsa, Michigan State, Cal, Arizona, Oregon
Chance of winning out: 14.2 percent
Week 8 game: Arizona State (10:30 p.m. ET, FS1)
Undefeated after Week 8: Yes.
Michael Penix Jr. is in the Heisman Trophy driver’s seat right now after a standout performance last week in the win over Oregon, and I’m not going against him any time soon. But definitely not picking against this prolific offense he’s leading — the Huskies are averaging 543.7 yards per game (FBS No. 3) and 44.3 points (FBS No. 5) — nor a defense tough enough to take down a fellow College Football Playoff hopeful. Plus, uhh, there’s also the fact that the Sun Devils haven’t won a game since August.
No. 6 Oklahoma (6-0)
Wins: Arkansas State, SMU, Tulsa, Cincinnati, Iowa State, Texas
Chance of winning out: 41.1 percent
Week 8 game: UCF (Noon ET, ABC)
Undefeated after Week 8: Yes.
On paper, these are two high-powered offenses that are going to trade touchdowns until the clock hits zero. On paper, UCF’s is actually slightly better and ranked fourth, averaging 516.7 yards per game, compared with Oklahoma’s sixth-ranked 506.0. Barely a difference, on paper. In reality, one of the Big 12’s newest members isn’t going to deal the Sooners their first loss. While defense may be a challenge all around, I don’t have confidence that the Knights can *actually* go touchdown for touchdown against a College Football Playoff favorite.
No. 7 Penn State (6-0)
Wins: West Virginia, Delaware, Illinois, Iowa, Northwestern, Massachusetts
Chance of winning out: 14.4 percent
Week 8 game: Ohio State (Noon ET, Fox)
Undefeated after Week 8: No.
See above.
No. 10 North Carolina (6-0)
Wins: South Carolina, Appalachian State, Minnesota, Pitt, Syracuse, Miami
Chance of winning out: 8.0 percent
Week 8 game: Virginia (6:30 p.m. ET, CW Network)
Undefeated after Week 8: Yes.
No disrespect to 1-5 Virginia, but North Carolina has emerged as one of the better teams this season on a national scale. To their credit, the Cavaliers have three one-score losses, but they’re still not the team to take down Drake Maye and the Tar Heels. The Heisman Trophy contender is leading the FBS’ eighth-best offense (501.3 yards per game), and Maye has thrown for about 400 yards more this season than the entirety of Virginia.
No. 22 Air Force (6-0)
Wins: Robert Morris, Sam Houston, Utah State, San Jose State, San Diego State, Wyoming
Chance of winning out: 13.9 percent
Week 8 game: Navy (Noon ET, CBS)
Undefeated after Week 8: Yes.
Air Force is probably the best Group of Five team this season, and so much is thanks to its No. 3 defense, which is giving up just 240.0 yards per game, along with 14.7 points. But you never know what can happen in service academy games, especially with Falcons quarterback Zac Larrier “out for a while.” Air Force will pull out the win and remain undefeated, but Navy could keep it interesting.
Liberty (6-0)*
Wins: Bowling Green, New Mexico State, Buffalo, FIU, Sam Houston, Jacksonville State
Chance of winning out: 22.5 percent
Week 8 game: Middle Tennessee (Tuesday, Oct. 17)
Undefeated after Week 8: Yes.
Liberty played Middle Tennessee on Tuesday and won, 42-35. So it’s still undefeated after its Week 8 game and is now 7-0.
James Madison (6-0)*
Wins: Bucknell, Virginia, Troy, Utah State, South Alabama, Georgia Southern
Chance of winning out: 10.9 percent
Week 8 game: Marshall (Thursday, Oct. 19)
Undefeated after Week 8: Yes.
James Madison played Marshall on Thursday and won, 20-9. So it’s still undefeated after its Week 8 game and is now 7-0.
