We’re in the heart of the college football regular season, and just 10 FBS teams remain undefeated at this point.
In the predictions last week, we were wrong about Texas staying undefeated and incorrectly said both Miami (Fla.) and BYU would lose, and they, in fact, did not. The Longhorns are the only team to drop off this list from last week.
So of the 10 undefeated teams headed into Week 9, the Big Ten has three, the Big 12, ACC and AAC each have two and the SEC is nowhere to be found as those teams have been beating each other up all season.
Now, as much as we wish we could, we can’t actually predict the future. But that’s not stopping us from attempting to educatedly guess which college football teams will be dealt their first loss of the season. Here are our predictions for this week’s undefeated teams.
All games are on Saturday unless otherwise noted, all chances of winning are from ESPN’s FPI and all odds are via BetMGM.
No. 1 Oregon (7-0, 4-0 Big Ten)
Wins: Idaho, Boise State, Oregon State, UCLA, Michigan State, Ohio State, Purdue
Chance of winning out: 15.7 percent
Week 9 game: vs. No. 20 Illinois, 3:30 p.m. ET on CBS
Undefeated after Week 9: Yes.
Illinois will put up a good fight, despite having to travel across two time zones to get to Eugene. But the Ducks actually might be the best team in the country this season, and we’re not picking against them — and definitely not as 21.5-point favorites — until they look shaky against a team they should beat. Dillon Gabriel’s Heisman Trophy campaign is back up and running, and Oregon returns to this list next week.
No. 3 Penn State (6-0, 3-0 Big Ten)
Wins: West Virginia, Bowling Green, Kent State, Illinois, UCLA, USC
Chance of winning out: 6.8 percent
Week 9 game: At Wisconsin, 7:30 p.m. ET on NBC
Undefeated after Week 9: Yes.
Every year, we talk about Penn State being the real deal… until it runs head-first into a highly ranked Big Ten team and throws a loss or two into the mix. However, THIS Penn State team might actually be for real with the No. 10 offense and No. 6 defense among FBS teams. The Badgers’ defense might be able to slow the Nittany Lions, 6.5-point favorites, down and keep it close, but this isn’t the game where Penn State messes up.
No. 6 Miami (Fla.) (7-0, 3-0 ACC)
Wins: Florida, Florida A&M, Ball State, South Florida, Virginia Tech, Cal, Louisville
Chance of winning out: 29.1 percent
Week 9 game: vs. Florida State, 7 p.m. ET on ESPN
Undefeated after Week 9: Yes.
Hurricanes quarterback Cam Ward is doing incredible things this season and has the most passing yards (2,538) so far this season by more than 100. No chance Florida State is the team to finally knock off Miami, which is a 21-point favorite.
No. 10 Iowa State (7-0, 4-0 Big 12)
Wins: North Dakota, Iowa, Arkansas State, Houston, Baylor, West Virginia, UCF
Chance of winning out: 8.5 percent
Week 9 game: Bye
Undefeated after Week 9: Yes, duh.
The Cyclones’ impressive 2024 campaign is on hold for a bye week before taking on Texas Tech the first weekend of November.
No. 11 BYU (7-0, 4-0 Big 12)
Wins: Southern Illinois, SMU, Wyoming, Kansas State, Baylor, Arizona, Oklahoma State
Chance of winning out: 3.8 percent
Week 9 game: At UCF, 3:30 p.m. ET on ESPN
Undefeated after Week 9: Yes.
It’s really unclear why exactly BYU, an undefeated team, is a 1.5-point underdog here, even on the road with a lot of travel. If the Cougars lose, it’ll be an extremely close game. But we don’t see that happening.
No. 13 Indiana (7-0, 4-0 Big Ten)
Wins: Florida International, Western Illinois, UCLA, Charlotte, Maryland, Northwestern, Nebraska
Chance of winning out: 7.5 percent
Week 9 game: vs. Washington, noon ET on BTN
Undefeated after Week 9: Yes.
Look, the Hoosiers are bound to drop a game at some point, right? And this one might just be it with quarterback Kurtis Rourke out this week as he recovers from minor thumb surgery. The Huskies are inconsistent, but even without Rourke, Indiana as a 6.5-point favorite should be able to win on the ground. Eight-win Indiana, here we come.
No. 19 Pitt (7-0, 2-0 ACC)
Wins: Kent State, Cincinnati, West Virginia, Youngstown State, North Carolina, Cal
Chance of winning out: 0.2 percent
Week 9 game: vs. Syracuse, Thursday, 7:30 p.m. ET on ESPN
Undefeated after Week 9: No.
Offensively, the Panthers are doing just fine at No. 8 in yards per game (480.8), but their defense will be their downfall. They should absolutely be able to beat Syracuse at home as 5.5-point favorites, but that’s exactly why the Orange could be poised to hand Pitt its first loss of the year.
No. 23 Army (7-0, 6-0 AAC)
Wins: Lehigh, Florida Atlantic, Rice, Temple, Tulsa, UAB, East Carolina
Chance of winning out: 2.8 percent
Week 9 game: Bye
Undefeated after Week 9: Yes, duh.
The Black Knights get to take a beat with a bye before looking ahead to hosting Air Force on November 2.
No. 24 Navy (6-0, 4-0 AAC)
Wins: Bucknell, Temple, Memphis, UAB, Air Force, Charlotte
Chance of winning out: 0.4 percent
Week 9 game: vs. No. 12 Notre Dame, noon ET on ABC at MetLife Stadium
Undefeated after Week 9: No.
It would be so exciting if the Midshipmen delivered a second loss to Notre Dame and keep their undefeated season alive. And the neutral site could benefit them. Navy is a 12.5-point underdog, and while that spread seems too large, the Fighting Irish probably steal a victory here.
Liberty (5-0, 3-0 CUSA)
Wins: Campbell, New Mexico State, UTEP, East Carolina, Florida International
Chance of winning out: 2.5 percent
Week 9 game: At Kennesaw State, Wednesday, 7 p.m. ET on CBS Sports Network
Undefeated after Week 9: Yes.
Even if you knew nothing about either of these teams, you’d pick the undefeated one over the winless one, especially since Liberty is a 25.5-point favorite. But for what it’s worth, Kennesaw State’s offense is dead last, 134th of 134 teams.
