The official start of NFL free agency doesn’t begin until March 13. That’s when deals are officially negotiated and reported signings fly across the landscape like mustard bottles and golf balls at the sound of a bad call at Neyland Stadium.
That 3 p.m. EST start will be the shotgun blast that unofficially kicks off the league’s new year. While it’s still roughly two weeks away, we have a broad understanding of what the parameters will be. Some of the biggest pending free agents will have been secured under the franchise tag by then. Others will be cast to sea by teams struggling to fit under 2023’s $224.8 million spending limit.
We know who the most coveted veterans will be. We also know who the biggest players will be after a month of restructuring contracts and releasing redundant players has primed all 32 teams to spend on new acquisitions. What we don’t know is who will go where and what impact they’ll have.
That isn’t going to stop me from guessing, of course. Here’s where I think the top 21 free agents of 2023 will wind up — a number that started at 20 and grew by one with Bobby Wagner’s reported separation from the Los Angeles Rams pending. And, because it’s the offseason, I threw Tom Brady in at the end as well.
Don’t worry, I picked the weirdest possible destination for him.
1
QB Lamar Jackson: Baltimore Ravens
2022 Team: Ravens
Age: 26
Even if Baltimore doesn’t see Jackson as it’s quarterback of the future there’s no way it’s going to let a 26-year-old former MVP leave without some kind of compensation in return. Expect Jackson to be given a non-exclusive franchise tag as the Ravens simultaneously work on a possible extension while fielding trade offers for star around which their entire offense revolves.
2
LT Orlando Brown: Kansas City Chiefs
2022 Team: Chiefs
Age: 27
Kansas City doesn’t want to mess with a Super Bowl-winning formula. Even a second-straight franchise tag would come at a reasonable ~$20 million cost for a top tier left tackle. The Chiefs would like to avoid that with a long term contract that ties Zeus Jr. to Patrick Mahomes for years to come, but if worse comes to worse they can always tag him and try again next winter.
3
IDL Da'Ron Payne: Washington Commanders
2022 Team: Commanders
Age: 26
The Commanders franchise tagged their sack leader before the calendar could even flip over to March. Given Payne’s breakthrough 2022, it makes sense that Washington would want to see if that was the beginning of a trend or merely an outlier. Given the Commanders’ history of jerking its own players around via the franchise tag, it makes sense that this would annoy Payne.
4
IDL Javon Hargrave: Las Vegas Raiders
2022 Team: Eagles
Age: 30
Las Vegas has a great edge rusher in Maxx Crosby, but he has to do most of the heavy lifting by himself. Adding Hargrave would be a boon for a team with more than $48 million to spend this offseason. The 30 year old tackle has 18.5 sacks and 34 quarterback hits over the last two seasons. That’s the kind of chaos that would boost Crosby — and maybe even revitalize a fading Chandler Jones.
5
RT Kaleb McGary: Chicago Bears
2022 Team: Falcons
Age: 28
Poor Justin Fields has been sacked 91 times in 679 dropbacks as a pro. Sure, some of that is due to his penchant for scrambling, but a 13.4 percent sack rate is … disturbing. With Brown off the market, McGary is 2023’s top available blocker. Chicago has more money to throw around than anyone in free agency — and protecting Fields/adding receiving talent should be their top priorities.
6
CB Jamel Dean: Indianapolis Colts
2022 Team: Buccaneers
Age: 27
Indianapolis can free up $18 million in cap space by releasing Matt Ryan. A good chunk of that could be poured into luring Dean, a cover corner capable of teaming up with a still-effective Stephon Gilmore to give new head coach Shane Steichen a cornerback duo capable of approaching the James Bradberry-Darius Slay combination he left behind in Philadelphia. The Colts allowed a 96.2 passer rating in coverage last fall, third-worst in the NFL.
7
S Chauncey Gardner-Johnson, Jr.: Philadelphia Eagles
2022 Team: Eagles
Age: 26
Gardner-Johnson’s versatility was the keystone to a dynamic secondary. If the Eagles can’t reach a contract extension with their dynamic safety/cornerback, expect them to use the franchise tag to keep him off the open market.
8
LB Bobby Wagner: Cincinnati Bengals
2022 Team: Rams
Age: 33
Wagner left Seattle and ran his streak of All-Pro selections to nine in Los Angeles. The Rams couldn’t afford to keep him thanks to Les Snead’s “buy now, pay later” talent acquisition strategy (this is not a criticism, it won a championship) so now he gets to go for double-digits elsewhere. His quest for another Super Bowl ring continues here with the Bengals, who have the cap space to outbid the Eagles for his services. There he’d replace free agent Germaine Pratt to give Cincinnati a do-everything stalwart capable of making 10 other guys better every time he takes the field.
9
LB Lavonte David: Detroit Lions
2022 Team: Buccaneers
Age: 33
David can write his own ticket here. If he wants to chase another Super Bowl ring, maybe he’d take less money to sign with the Eagles or Chiefs. If he wants to maximize his salary then the Bears or Falcons could probably offer the most. The Lions split the difference here; a playoff-capable team with a glaring need at linebacker, a possible void of veteran leadership (if Michael Brockers is released to save $10 million in cap space) and the chance to be a local hero for a fanbase that’s been wandering the desert for, oh, six decades or so.
10
S Jessie Bates III: New England Patriots
2022 Team: Bengals
Age: 26
Devin McCourty is still playing solid football, but he’s 35 years old and may opt for retirement. Bates would add a proper centerfielder to team with Kyle Dugger and keep the New England safety rotation booming. Bates allowed just 51.4 percent of his targets to be caught and shows up in big moments — just watch his playoff game tape in the Bengals’ run to Super Bowl 56.
11
RB Saquon Barkley: New York Giants
2022 Team: Giants
Age: 26
Barkley’s revitalized 2022 proved the Giants could win despite limited returns in the passing game; Daniel Jones’ 6.4 air yards per pass was the 2nd-lowest mark among all starting quarterbacks last fall. He’ll be a building block for Brian Daboll’s encore in 2023, even if betting big on a running back with some injury concerns is always a tough wager.
12
CB James Bradberry: Seattle Seahawks
2022 Team: Eagles
Age: 30
Cornerback isn’t a massive priority for Seattle — Mike Jackson Sr. outperformed expectations last year and will be inexpensive to retain — but a Bradberry-Tariq Woolen-Jamal Adams-Quandre Diggs secondary is a message to the rest of the NFC. This isn’t the Legion of Boom defense, but it’s trending toward it.
13
QB Geno Smith: Seattle Seahawks
2022 Team: Seahawks
Age: 33
After 2022’s breakout season the Seahawks will be content to run it back with Geno. Whether that’s through the franchise tag or a modest extension remains to be seen.
14
CB Jonathan Jones: Chicago Bears
2022 Team: Patriots
Age: 30
Jones allowed just a 73.0 passer rating in coverage last season and could be a less expensive alternative to bigger names like Dean and Bradberry. That won’t really matter to the Bears, who can outbid needy teams like the Commanders, Vikings and Cardinals to upgrade their secondary.
15
LG Isaac Seumalo: Tennessee Titans
2022 Team: Eagles
Age: 30
The run game remains paramount to Tennessee’s success. Who better to keep that afloat than one of the key members of 2022’s top rushing offense? The Titans have cleared salary cap space recently with an eye on adding talent this spring. That could mean replacing pending free agent Nate Davis with Seumalo — or pairing the two up to clear space inside so Derrick Henry can keep thriving.
16
RB Josh Jacobs: Las Vegas Raiders
2022 Team: Raiders
Age: 25
2022’s rushing leader is an attractive selling point for a franchise looking to add a new quarterback. He’s also an important piece capable of carrying the offense in stretches if that new quarterback fails to pan out.
17
S Jordan Poyer: New York Jets
2022 Team: Bills
Age: 32
Leaving Buffalo may be a non-starter for Poyer. But if he does the Jets would give him the opportunity to play for a well regarded, defensive minded head coach (Robert Saleh) in a secondary loaded with talent. Playing alongside Sauce Gardner and DJ Reed would make this an easy lift — even if it would come at the expense of a villain turn by joining a division rival.
18
QB Derek Carr: New York Jets
2022 Team: Raiders
Age: 32
Both the Jets and Commanders can offer the chance to be the missing piece in a playoff run. The Panthers, Colts and Falcons … less so. Carr has plenty to prove after nine seasons and an 0-1 postseason record on his resume. New York, loaded with young playmakers, stands out as the top destination.
19
QB Daniel Jones: New York Giants
2022 Team: Giants
Age: 26
“Playoff winner Daniel Jones.” Wild. He’s either about to be franchise tagged or signed to a Blake Bortles-style three-year extension that includes a solid pay raise in year one and limited salary cap obligations for years two and three. Brian Daboll did wonders to revive his value in 2022. It makes sense that he’d want to return to that.
20
C Jason Kelce: Philadelphia Eagles
2022 Team: Eagles
Age: 35
Yeah he’s not going anywhere. If he comes back — and he should after a brilliant season at age 34 — it’ll be in Philly.
21
CB Byron Murphy: Minnesota Vikings
2022 Team: Cardinals
Age: 25
Minnesota has a pretty awful cap space situation, which means despite all the help it needs in the secondary the team will likely be sifting through the bargain bin this offseason. Murphy, coming off a 2022 regression, could fit the bill.
He played only nine games last fall and struggled in stretches following a solid 2021 but still managed to allow only 6.0 yards per target — 15th-best among all cornerbacks with at least 50 targets last year. If he doesn’t get a big deal early, the Vikings could swoop in and upgrade their deficient passing defense.
22
Bonus! QB Tom Brady: Atlanta Falcons
2022 Team: Buccaneers
Age: 46
I mean, it’s not gonna happen. But if Brady does come back, well, let’s get weird with it.
