We’re in a critical phase on the New Orleans Saints’ schedule: a five-game stretch in which they’ll play five games in 28 days leading up to their bye week. The Saints started this series with a loss to the Houston Texans at home, and they’re returning home for a game with the Jacksonville Jaguars on Thursday night. That’s a tough out given their 3-3 record.
But what are the expectations for this Saints team now that we’ve seen them go to work in the first six weeks? How does that change our predictions for the rest of the season? Let’s update that forecast for the final 11 games:
Week 7 vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Loss. The Jaguars have an edge at quarterback and along their coaching staff; the Saints never should have let Doug Pederson get out of Louisiana. With injuries mounting on the New Orleans offensive line, this could get ugly.
Record: 3-4
Week 8 at Indianapolis Colts
Win. Anthony Richardson is undergoing season-ending shoulder surgery, and the Saints have beaten his replacement before — Gardner Minshew isn’t much of a threat to them or any other top-shelf defense. The Saints should be able to run on this team without always-underrated nose tackle Grover Stewart anchoring the Colts defense.
Record: 4-4
Week 9 vs. Chicago Bears
Win. Arguably the worst team in pro football, the Bears defense is toothless and their offense is missing its best running back with Khalil Herbert on the mend. This should be another win for New Orleans, but keep the quality of the opponent in mind.
Record: 5-4
Week 10 at Minnesota Vikings
Win. By all accounts this is a game the Saints should win. The Vikings have been miserable defensively and they won’t have Marcus Davenport, one of their prized offseason pickups, on their side after he went on injured reserve. And they might be without superstar wide receiver Justin Jefferson, too, defanging their offense. It’ll be a big disappointment if the Saints lose this matchup.
Record: 6-4
Week 11 on bye
The Saints go into their bye week with a winning record despite some pretty serious flaws, buoyed by a series of opponents with even bigger problems.
Week 12 at Atlanta Falcons
Win. The Falcons defense appears to be legit, having taken a lot of talent from New Orleans this offseason, but their offense is in an even worse state than the Saints’ unit. Atlanta is ending more drives with turnovers (14.9%) than 25 other teams, including the Saints (9.0%). This is a game their defense can take over. Surely their offense can make the most of those opportunities by late November. Right?
Record: 7-4
Week 13 vs. Detroit Lions
Loss. The Lions have everything the Saints want: a coach their players believe in, a competent veteran quarterback, an offense that can put points on the board, and a defense that fights for every yard. This game with a serious playoff team is going to be a reality check for New Orleans after racking up wins against a series of sub-standard opponents.
Record: 7-5
Week 14 vs. Carolina Panthers
Win. This is another very winnable game (and a welcome respite after that Lions matchup), but you never know with divisional opponents. If it’s any consolation, the Panthers appear to be very, very bad this year and more and more of their best players are getting sidelined with injuries. Carolina won’t be playing for a draft pick, having traded their 2024 first rounder to the Bears, but this is another game Saints fans should expect to win.
Record: 8-5
Week 15 vs. New York Giants
Win. A weak schedule is the gift that keeps on giving. The Giants have one of the league’s worst pass defenses (just 5 sacks and 3 interceptions through their first six games) and their offense ranks worst in the NFL with just 4.1 yards gained per play; a full half-yard worse than the Saints. New Orleans should win this one in front of their home crowd.
Record: 9-5
Week 16 at Los Angeles Rams
Loss. The Rams have a coaching edge on the Saints, and their roster is punching far above its weight class given how many young and inexperienced players they’ve had to use to fill it out. Rookie receiver Puka Nacua looks like an ideal compliment to Cooper Kupp who could bait Paulson Adebo into a couple of coverage penalties later this season.
Record: 9-6
Week 17 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Loss. Dennis Allen has not shown he’s capable of beating this Buccaneers team when everything is on his plate as head coach: he’s lost to them 20-10, 17-16, and 26-9 in three previous meetings. Why should we expect that to change? The way this team is playing right now it’s no surprise the Bucs are ahead in the division standings.
Record: 9-7
Week 18 vs. Atlanta falcons
Win. We’ll never predict a Saints loss to the Falcons, especially in a year where Atlanta is so obviously flawed offensively. Bijan Robinson is putting up amazing highlights for someone who has managed just 80 and 58 scrimmage yards the last two weeks. The Saints can end their season with a win. Will that be enough to get them into the playoffs?
Record: 10-7
