With the 95th Academy Awards just around the corner, it’s time we roll up our sleeves and make some predictions.
While it’s impossible to really know what will win (outside of a few locked-in categories), we here at For The Win have a hunch as to what will take home the Oscar gold on Sunday.
Predicting the Oscars is kind of like predicting the Super Bowl. You can size up stats, watch film (literally) and make your best-educated guess, but it’s anyone’s game.
The Academy Awards have long defied perfection on the prediction board; you’re always more lucky to get things right than expectant to.
We’ve gone through all the non-short film categories and rounded up who we think will win. If we’re right, we’re smart and knew all along. If we’re not, blame the Academy not us!
Best Picture
Best Picture is going to come down to two films: Everything Everywhere All at Once and All Quiet on the Western Front.
Everything Everywhere All at Once has been the unexpected steamroller through this awards season, claiming top honors from the Directors Guild, Screen Actors Guild, Producers Guild, Golden Globes (Musical/Comedy), Writer’s Guild (Original Screenplay), among other groups.
You’d think it’d be under lock and key, right? Well, the pesky delayed awards calendar helped CODA break through at the last second to win Best Picture, and that could happen with All Quiet on the Western Front. That film won the BAFTA’s top award and seems to be gathering last-second moss. Maybe Netflix is pulling out all the stops late in the process?
It’s still probably going to be Everything Everywhere All at Once, but stranger things have happened at the Oscars.
PREDICTION: Daniel Kwan, Daniel Scheinert, Jonathan Wang, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Watch Everything Everywhere All at Once on Amazon Prime videoBest Director
It felt for the longest time that Steven Spielberg was going to waltz away with Best Director for his deeply emotional semi-autobiographical film The Fabelmans, but everything is coming up Daniels and Everything Everywhere All at Once.
Rising tides lift all boats, and the universal love for that film could jettison it to a serious sweep. Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert won the Directors Guild’s top prize last month and seem like they have all the momentum.
Don’t count out Spielberg, but the love for Daniels’ film might be too strong to beat.
PREDICTION: Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert (Daniels), Everything Everywhere All at Once
Watch Everything Everywhere All at Once on Amazon Prime videoBest Actress
Best Actress feels like one of the night’s toughest categories to predict.
Two-time Oscar winner Cate Blanchett turned in a career-best performance in Tár, and it’s very possible that the Academy will want to reward her with a third little gold man and canonize her as one of the all-time greats.
Although, the narrative and widespread love for Michelle Yeoh gave her the Screen Actors Guild award for Best Actress. She’s a first-time nominee who has a trailblazing career behind her, and she led the year’s most awarded film.
In the end, it’s a coin flip. We’re going to guess that Yeoh tilted the scales just enough in the final hour with her joyful SAG acceptance speech to take home her first Academy Award.
PREDICTION: Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Watch Everything Everywhere All at Once on Amazon Prime videoBest Actor
Like Best Actress, Best Actor is incredibly difficult to predict.
It’s going to come down to Brendan Fraser in The Whale and Austin Butler in Elvis. While Butler won the BAFTA for Best Actor, Fraser winning in the more populist Screen Actors Guild for Best Actor means something.
Traditionally, you’d expect the SAG voting base to recognize a real-life performance since those are some of the most accessible. Butler didn’t win in a category that has recently awarded real-life portrayals from Will Smith (King Richard), Rami Malek (Bohemian Rhapsody), Gary Oldman (Darkest Hour), Leonardo DiCaprio (The Revenant), Eddie Redmayne (The Theory of Everything), Matthew McConaughey (Dallas Buyers Club), Daniel Day-Lewis (Lincoln) and Colin Firth (The King’s Speech).
Not since 2001 has Best Actor at the Oscars gone to a real-life portrayal that wasn’t also recognized at the SAG Awards in the same category (Adrien Brody, The Pianist).
You’d think the more mainstream SAG voting body would’ve first honored Butler for the blockbuster hit Elvis if he was destined for an Oscar. Elvis is a much more mainstream film than The Whale; the SAGs should’ve been Butler’s home turf.
Elvis does have a Best Picture nomination that The Whale doesn’t, but Fraser’s comeback narrative and delightful awards circuit presence may be what decides this race. Butler’s lack of a SAG victory feels telling, but it’s close as can be.
PREDICTION: Brendan Fraser, The Whale
Best Supporting Actress
Best Supporting Actress is a genuine toss-up, with Everything Everywhere All at Once co-star Jamie Lee Curtis riding high on momentum from her Best Supporting Actress win at the SAG Awards.
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever‘s Angela Bassett and The Banshees of Inisherin‘s Kerry Condon feel like plausible winners, but Curtis may blend a career achievement award with the potential domination her film may have at the Oscars.
PREDICTION: Jamie Lee Curtis, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Watch Everything Everywhere All at Once on Amazon Prime videoBest Supporting Actor
One of the night’s real locks is Best Supporting Actor.
Ke Huy Quan is winning for his moving performance in Everything Everywhere All at Once. Take this one to the bank.
PREDICTION: Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Watch Everything Everywhere All at Once on Amazon Prime videoBest Original/Adapted Screenplay
In the evening’s screenplay categories, bet on the hot hands.
While Martin McDonagh took home Best Original Screenplay at the BAFTAs, Everything Everywhere All at Once would seem to be more popular stateside in the Best Original Screenplay category.
All Quiet on the Western Front‘s late-gaining steam may help it edge Sarah Polley’s Women Talking, long suspected to be the favorite in Best Adapted Screenplay.
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY PREDICTION: Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert (Daniels), Everything Everywhere All at Once
Watch Everything Everywhere All at Once on Amazon Prime videoBEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY PREDICTION: Edward Berger, Ian Stokell, Lesley Paterson, All Quiet on the Western Front
Best Editing
One of the most praised aspects of Everything Everywhere All at Once was its editing, so this feels like a given.
PREDICTION: Paul Rogers, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Watch Everything Everywhere All at Once on Amazon Prime videoBest Animated Feature
Watch for Guillermo del Toro to easily walk away with another Oscar here for his splendid work on the stop-motion masterclass Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio.
PREDICTION: Guillermo del Toro, Mark Gustafson, Gary Ungar, Alex Bulkley, Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
Best Documentary Feature
We’ll follow BAFTA’s lead here and pick the nail-biting Russian political study Navalny.
PREDICTION: Daniel Roher, Odessa Rae, Diane Becker, Melanie Miller, Shane Boris, Navalny
Watch Navalny on HBO MaxBest International Feature
The films that make it to the Best Picture field in this category more often win than not.
PREDICTION: Edward Berger, All Quiet on the Western Front
Best Original Score/Song
In Best Original Song, the catchy “Naatu Naatu” from the Indian epic RRR could contend, but we’ll guess the more mainstream “Hold My Hand” by Lada Gaga from Top Gun: Maverick takes the crown.
In Best Original Score, it’s really anyone’s guess. John Williams could win another Oscar for his work on The Fabelmans, but All Quiet on the Western Front seems like it’s going to do quite well below the line.
BEST ORIGINAL SONG PREDICTION: “Hold My Hand” from Top Gun: Maverick; Music and lyrics by Lady Gaga and BloodPop
Watch Top Gun: Maverick on Paramount+BEST ORIGINAL SCORE PREDICTION: Volker Bertelmann, All Quiet on the Western Front
Best Sound
It feels like Top Gun: Maverick will fly away with this, but All Quiet on the Western Front lingers.
PREDICTION: Mark Weingarten, James H. Mather, Al Nelson, Chris Burdon, Mark Taylor, Top Gun: Maverick
Watch Top Gun: Maverick on Paramount+Best Production Design/Cinematography
One of Oscar season’s true surprises is going to be All Quiet on the Western Front dominating in the crafts categories. We think it’ll sweep these two visual categories.
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN PREDICTION: Production Design: Christian M. Goldbeck; Set Decoration: Ernestine Hipper, All Quiet on the Western Front
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY PREDICTION: James Friend, All Quiet on the Western Front
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
We’ll guess the incredible work to bring Charlie from The Whale to life nets some Oscars here.
BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING PREDICTION: Adrien Morot, Judy Chin, Anne Marie Bradley, The Whale
Best Costume Design
It’d feel weird for Elvis to go home empty-handed, so we’ll guess it wins here in Best Costume Design. It’s still a player for Best Actor and Best Makeup and Hairstyling, too.
Although, Ruth Carter’s stunning work on Black Panther: Wakanda Forever could win. She won for her costuming on the first film.
BEST COSTUME DESIGN PREDICTION: Catherine Martin, Elvis
Watch Elvis on HBO MaxBest Visual Effects
Avatar: The Way of Water‘s lone Oscar will come in the Best Visual Effects category. The film’s maybe got the most advanced VFX work we’ve seen so far in the medium. It’s a benchmark work.
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS PREDICTION: Joe Letteri, Richard Baneham, Eric Saindon, Daniel Barrett, Avatar: The Way of Water
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