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Forbes
Business
John Perrotto, Contributor

Predicting Landing Spots And Contracts For Top MLB Free Agents, Including Carlos Correa

Houston Astros shortstop Carlos Correa waves to fans during batting practice before Game 1 in baseball's World Series against the Atlanta Braves Tuesday, Oct. 26, 2021, in Houston. (AP Photo/David J. Phillip) ASSOCIATED PRESS

Rarely since the advent of free agency in Major League Baseball in 1976 has there been a class quite as top heavy at one position as this one.

Five All-Star caliber shortstop have reached the open market – Javier Baez, Carlos Correa, Corey Seager, Marcus Semien and Trevor Story.

All five are likely to land contracts in nine figures. Many baseball executives believe Correa and Seager will sign for as much as $300 million and Story could command $200 million.

With that as a backdrop, let’s look at the five most intriguing free agents and predict where they could land and the size of their contracts.

CARLOS CORREA

Correa played a huge role in the Houston Astros reaching the American League Championship Series each of the last five seasons. He had arguably the best season of his career this year when he was second to Los Angeles Angels two-way star Shohei Ohtani in bWAR with a 7.3 mark.

Correa also set career highs with 26 home runs and 92 RBIs in 148 games while hitting .279/.366/.485. At 27, he is just entering the prime of his career and is also acknowledged as the Astros’ clubhouse leader.

Agent: Jon Rosen

Contract prediction: Tigers for 10 years and $315 million

Los Angeles Dodgers shortstop Corey Seager makes the catch on a fly ball in four territory hit by Atlanta Braves Joc Pederson during the second inning in Game 2 of baseball's National League Championship Series Sunday, Oct. 17, 2021, in Atlanta. (AP Photo/Ashley Landis) ASSOCIATED PRESS

COREY SEAGER

Also 27, Seager was limited to 95 games with the Los Angeles Dodgers this season because of injuries. He batted .306/.394/.521 with 16 homers after being the MVP of the National League Championship Series and World Series during the pandemic-altered 2020 season.

The only knock on Seager is he has battled injuries at times throughout his career. However, many executives and scouts believe Seager is equal to or better than Correa.

Agent: Scott Boras

Contract prediction: Yankees for 10 years and $320 million

Atlanta Braves' Freddie Freeman celebrates his home run during the seventh inning in Game 6 of baseball's World Series between the Houston Astros and the Atlanta Braves Tuesday, Nov. 2, 2021, in Houston.(AP Photo/Eric Gay) ASSOCIATED PRESS

FREDDIE FREEMAN

The 32-year-old first baseman was drafted by the Atlanta Braves in 2007 and has spent the last 12 seasons with them in the major leagues. Much to the surprise of Freeman and many in the industry, Braves management has allowed him to reach free agency.

Freeman was the NL MVP in 2020 and followed with another fine season in 2021 while helping lead the Braves to their first World Series title since 1999. He had a .300/.393/.503 slash line in 159 games with 31 homers, 83 RBIs and an NL-leading 120 runs scored.

Agent: Excel Sports Management

Contract prediction: Braves for six years and $175 million

Colorado Rockies shortstop Trevor Story gesture to the crowd as he heads into the dugout after a ceremonial walk around the park after a baseball game Wednesday, Sept. 29, 2021, in Denver. The Rockies posted a 10-5 victory over the Washington Nationals. (AP Photo/David Zalubowski) ASSOCIATED PRESS

TREVOR STORY

One of the biggest surprises of the July 30 trade deadline was the Colorado Rockies holding on to Story even though they were out of contention. However, the Rockies have not made a strong bid to retain Story and he seems headed elsewhere after spending his six-year career in Colorado.

The 28-year-old Story may not be at the same level as Correa and Seager. However, even in a somewhat down year, he batted .251/.329/.471 with 24 homers, 75 RBIs and 20 stolen bases in 142 games in 2021.

Agent: Excel Sports Management

Contract prediction: Rangers for six years and $155 million

Toronto Blue Jays' Marcus Semien plays during the first inning of a baseball game, Sunday, Aug. 29, 2021, in Detroit. (AP Photo/Carlos Osorio) ASSOCIATED PRESS

MARCUS SEMIEN

Semien reached free agency for the first time in his career last winter and wound up signing just a one-year contract with the Toronto Blue Jays for $18 million while switching positions from shortstop to second base. The 31-year-old figures to get much money this time.

Semien’s 45 home runs this year were the most for a second baseman in a season in MLB history. He also drove in 102 runs and stole 15 bases while playing in all 162 games and slashing .265/.334/.538.

Agent: Scott Boras

Rarely since the advent of free agency in Major League Baseball in 1976 has there been a class quite as top heavy at one position as this one.

Five All-Star caliber shortstop have reached the open market – Javier Baez, Carlos Correa, Corey Seager, Marcus Semien and Trevor Story.

All five are likely to land contracts in nine figures. Many baseball executives believe Correa and Seager will sign for as much as $300 million and Story could command $200 million.

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