The best and worst part about predicting every NFL team’s record by selecting winners and losers in every single game is that it’s fair. While many of you won’t care about this, there is a pang in my stomach when I get to the end of the grid every year and there is no way to squeeze out another victory or two for a team that is low on the totem pole, thus removing the target from my back and avoiding some shrapnel.
There are a lot of outlets that do record predictions but what I like about the way we do it here every summer is that it prevents the kind of ceremonious back-patting that happens too often during this time of year. It’s easy to consistently say, You know what team we’re not talking enough about … and then find something positive to say about an underperforming team, or a team that does not have high expectations. But the question we don’t ask enough is … well, at which team’s expense is this supposed “under-the-radar” pick coming?
This method answers those questions. For better or for worse, there is no running and hiding.
Before we dig in, there are a few issues to address.
• Last year, my picks were abysmal. It was absolutely the worst year in my four seasons of doing this. I had the New England Patriots winning the AFC East. I had the Tampa Bay Buccaneers winning three games. I had the Arizona Cardinals winning one game. I was (rightfully) mocked on television for the Patriots pick, and the general manager of the Buccaneers sought me out to let me know what a doofus I was, making for a nice little bit on social media. To be clear, I really enjoy the fact that people read this and welcome the opportunity to defend my points.
• That said, last year solidified that my process needed to change, so here’s what is new and here’s why it matters. In previous seasons, I picked through teams’ schedules from top to bottom in an Excel spreadsheet. I’d do the AFC East first, running through divisions one at a time by teams in alphabetical order by city. So I would start with the Buffalo Bills in Week 1, pick their entire schedule, then end with the Seattle Seahawks in Week 18. I found this impacted the process negatively because if I had a team I kind of liked (the Patriots), I got cute, gave them a few extra wins and pushed the responsibility on another team or teams (the Cardinals and Buccaneers) to absorb the losses. This almost always negatively skewed the NFC. So this year, I picked games at random and filled out the Excel sheet kind of like a Battleship board, one peg out of 272 at a time. If I felt like one team was already drifting out of control, I would move over to that row and give it more intimate attention. If I was working off a particular assumption, maybe in one scenario I am imagining the team declining in health toward the end of the season, I worked on that group of games separately.
• Another factor that I did not take enough into account? Tanking is dead, man. It’s just not happening. I thought the Cardinals would freefall in hopes of getting a generational passer in the draft. I thought the Buccaneers, a veteran-heavy club that did not seem enamored with its post–Tom Brady setup, would have liquidated close to the trade deadline. The truth? Everyone needs to win. Even the four-win teams last year were really good and knocked off much better opponents. I remember pitching my idea of NBA-style load management to someone in the league this offseason and getting immediately swatted down. Teams need to win. They need to win, always. So, you’ll see that reflected a bit more on the record matrix this year, with more of a logjam toward the middle and less freefalling to the bottom.
• You’ll notice I have the New York Jets finishing the season with a winning record but just missing the playoffs. Last year I would have—and did—alter the results of other games in order to get my intended results. This year, I did not do that. That’s life.
• One last note: I had some serious bias housekeeping that needed to be addressed. I was not biased as a fan, but in the sense that there were some coaches and GMs I believed to be infallible—Bill Belichick among them. I tried to challenge those beliefs more in 2024.
With all of that said, let’s get onto the predictions, shall we? Scroll all the way down for my projected playoff standings.
AFC East
Buffalo Bills: 10–7
You’ll notice I have the Bills winning four of their last five games. My thought is that this offense will only get better as Josh Allen takes a larger share of command and breaks in his wide receivers. Like the Kansas City Chiefs last year, it may never really happen and Allen may simply have to will the team to victory with one of those rambling, 400-total-yard performances. The Bills do get the Patriots twice in the waning weeks of the season, which certainly helps their case for a rousing end-of-season, come-from-behind kind of performance. I also like them getting the Jets in prime time after New York returns home from London, and I think the Miami Dolphins game in Week 2 is fortuitous. Mike McDaniel will expose any defense, especially one reeling from critical injuries and departures like the Bills. Having this game wedged between two winnable home games could prove to be highly beneficial for Buffalo.
Miami Dolphins: 9–8
Right off the bat, I’ll address a pair of biases that I am working through with the Dolphins. One, it’s tough for me to think that another defensive coordinator is going to be better than Vic Fangio, even if that coordinator, Anthony Weaver, is incredibly well thought of and should probably be an NFL head coach. Another is that I can’t shake the idea of the Dolphins withering down the stretch and doing little to combat what I see is their biggest problem: a lack of balance to their speed-oriented offense that can help them sustain success during the colder months, on the road and in the playoffs. The Dolphins lost five of their last six games in 2022, and lost three of their final five games last year, including an absolute whooping at the hands of the Baltimore Ravens. So, you’ll notice a losing streak in Weeks 9 to 11, and another one to end the season in Weeks 17 and 18. The latter is understandable; two cold weather road games in the Northeast against the Cleveland Browns and Jets. The former includes a loss to the Raiders. I think Gardner Minshew II is simply going to Minshew sometimes and we have to build that into the algorithm.
New York Jets: 9–8
As I said above, my hope was to have the Jets heroically defeating the Bills in the final game of the season in order to shore up a wild-card spot. However, I dug myself in deep with a massive logjam in the AFC North, which is another bias of mine that I think could end up harpooning my success this year. The entire AFC North, thanks to a series of nth-degree tiebreakers sorted through by my own personal Steve Kornacki, editor Mitch Goldich, wedged its way into the postseason. The Jets are the one team I am honestly upset not to have making it. As I’ve said before, I think they have the potential to possess the No. 1 defense in the NFL this year. But, enough hedging, let’s talk about why.
This schedule is difficult and begins with a cross-country trip to San Francisco. At the writing of this, Brock Purdy doesn’t look infallible. Nor does the Kyle Shanahan offense, though we just spent the weekend watching Purdy operate without Shanahan as a play-caller and without the entirety of his offensive line and starting skill-position players. I have the Jets ripping off a three-game winning streak after that, before losing to an inferior Minnesota Vikings team in London. London is weird. Anything can happen that week, and the Jets have a veteran-heavy roster. Maybe those players won’t bounce back as well due a week of truncated rest. Coming off that week with a Monday Night Football game against Buffalo is a hard sell. I have the Jets losing to the Cardinals in Arizona because they’ll be coming off an emotional victory versus the Houston Texans the week before and I have them losing back-to-back games in humid Florida against a division rival and Trevor Lawrence. While I don’t think the Jaguars are going to be great this year, I think Lawrence can go off at any point.
New England Patriots: 4–13
A Week 1 victory over the Cincinnati Bengals? What? I actually checked—there are supposed to be clear skies in Cincinnati (as of now) so no strange weather game. I just wonder whether Joe Burrow will still be working his way back and Jerod Mayo can throw an absolute screwball of a defensive game plan to muddy things up for the Bengals. I’m talking about a real random 17–14 deal where the Bengals are still getting used to a new offensive coaching staff, kinks are getting worked out and the Patriots just find themselves on a heater (because they do have a pretty darn good defense). We’ve spent a large portion of the offseason discussing how bad this team is going to be, but I do wonder if there’s enough firepower to uppercut the Bengals while they’re looking ahead before falling a bit more into the rhythm we expected. After that, I see things getting back to status quo. A three-game losing streak follows, with losses to the Jets, 49ers and Seahawks at home. Seattle will still be early in the Ryan Grubb–Mike Macdonald tenure, so there’s an element of uncertainty there and a difficulty in game planning. I debated having the Patriots clip the Texans in Week 5, but thought around this time, with a road game against the Tennessee Titans not far away, they might start prepping Drake Maye and giving him the chance to play. With such a late bye, it’s hard to imagine the Patriots waiting until Week 14 to play their rookie.
AFC North
Cincinnati Bengals: 11–6
I’m nervous as all heck about this. Again, the one aspect of this exercise I’ll regret most is the blanket overrating of the AFC North when a lot of these teams have some clear holes. The Bengals have fewer holes, and we’re still projecting Joe Burrow to operate the way he did against the Los Angeles Rams during an unconscious Super Bowl run that is now a couple of years old. Time, money and roster churn complicates things. That said, there are some good pockets for the Bengals throughout this schedule. In a stretch of four weeks at the beginning of the year, they’ll get the New York Giants, Washington Commanders and Carolina Panthers before injury attrition puts teams at a more even playing field. The Bengals also have games against the Titans and Denver Broncos toward the end of the season, which breaks up the divisional slog and gets them winnable games on the card.
Pittsburgh Steelers: 10–7
This pick embodies my overall nervousness. The Steelers have a lot of issues, the most important of which is that Russell Wilson is still throwing dangerously into traffic and looks like he lacks the mobility to evade rushers being generated from Pittsburgh’s scattershot, slow-developing offensive line. If they had just traded for Justin Fields this offseason and handed him the QB job out of the gate, I think I’d feel differently, knowing that he got a bulk of the starters’ snaps and that offensive coordinator Arthur Smith didn’t have to concern himself with trying to dig into the Wilson archives to make an offense work. All that said, the Steelers’ first eight games of the season are more than winnable, and I have them going 4–4 while the offense gets settled. After the bye, I have them going 3–2 which, again, still feels reasonable given that I don’t see them dropping both games to the Browns in a short span. I can’t get over the idea that this team was able to do so much with so little firepower at the QB position last year. Fields, if and when he wins this job, should be able to generate some leads and allow this pass rush to shine.
Baltimore Ravens: 10–7
Despite offensive line turnover and the ever-present risk of an injury derailing their season, I have the Ravens coming out with a bang and avenging their AFC championship game loss to the Kansas City Chiefs in the opener. I like this win for Baltimore because last year’s season-ender was far more than a playoff loss to the eventual Super Bowl champion. It was physical and it was personal. Baltimore runs into Kansas City again and can return a hard jab, setting the season off on the right foot. A dangerous pocket for Baltimore spans Weeks 10 to 12. Seeing the Bengals a second time, then traveling to Pittsburgh, then flying cross-country for the Harbaugh Bowl is a tough stretch no matter how underwhelmed by the Los Angeles Chargers I am right now. Clipping the Texans on Christmas and then defeating division-rival Cleveland at home in the finale is how they’ll find their way into the postseason. One of my favorite thoughts when picking Baltimore’s schedule this year was what happens on Dec. 1 against the Philadelphia Eagles. Howie Roseman drafted almost the entirety of Georgia’s championship defense. Ravens offensive coordinator Todd Monken practiced against them every day. Fun!
Cleveland Browns: 9–8
We did not get to see Deshaun Watson in the preseason, and we’re writing this at a moment when Cleveland’s offensive line situation feels shaky, although that could just be us media folks making a hurricane out of a tropical depression. The Browns and the Jets are fairly identical to me. I tried to put my driver back in the bag and avoid big swings with both of these picks because the potential variance is so high. If Jack Conklin struggles coming off a torn ACL and Jedrick Wills doesn’t come off PUP firing on all cylinders, Cleveland has a real problem. Watson was O.K. with really good offensive line play, the best offensive line coach in the NFL and a great running game. He enjoys none of those comforts as he comes off shoulder surgery. One of my biases I’m working on is that I struggle to see an avenue forward with Watson, though I’m sure one exists. This familiar tailspin of changing coordinators to maximize someone’s potential is a prickly one. All that said, if we get vintage bulletproof Watson, the offensive line situation matters less. I feel like I was incredibly generous as it relates to the stretch that will define Cleveland’s season: Weeks 6 to 9, heading into the bye week. I have them taking three of four from the Eagles, Bengals, Ravens and Chargers. It’s a very low-travel month for the Browns against similarly high-variance teams. To me, that’s what makes the rest of this somewhat chalky schedule a playoff result for the Browns.
AFC South
Houston Texans: 9–8
I wanted to go big and orchestrate a surprise end-of-season run from the Indianapolis Colts to take the divisional crown, but couldn’t justify it. That said, there are some Texans losses on this schedule that some could see as uncharacteristic. My response is that 30% of Houston’s snaps last year were against backup quarterbacks. Houston had one of the worst strength of schedule ratings heading into the season and critical stretches of the season where they were playing against bad teams, replacement quarterbacks or both (and they still lost to the middling Jaguars and Jets). That’s why I saw 8.5 wins as the kind of tipping point for this season, with one game pushing Houston over the hump, much like it did last year when they barely edged out the Colts. The defense, I feel, will take center stage early in the season with games against Anthony Richardson, Caleb Williams and Sam Darnold to start the year. I also think the three games heading into the bye (at Dallas, vs. Tennessee, at Jacksonville) could be the moment they pull away from the Colts ever so slightly. While many are projecting a kind of coronation year for C.J. Stroud, I am planning for something more like a plateau, unless the offense really evolves by leaps and bounds combined with the true mastery of DeMeco Ryans shining.
Indianapolis Colts: 9–8
Weeks 5 to 8 concern me a bit for a Colts team that will play outdoors and on the road three times in four weeks. The actual opponents matter a little bit less, though the Colts will get their first look at both the Titans and Jaguars, and second look on the road against the Texans. This, to me, is where they’ll fall just a hair behind the Texans, despite a heroic effort to rebound at the end of the season. This season-ending schedule for Indianapolis is absolutely a stretch that could alter the course of the AFC. Coming off a bye, a very good Shane Steichen–coached team has a slew of winnable games against a rookie QB (the Broncos), a home game and a second crack at the Titans, an uncertain Giants team with who knows at quarterback and a home game against the Jaguars.
Jacksonville Jaguars: 7–10
This could end up being one of my more controversial selections, especially after I spent the offseason praising the addition of Ryan Nielsen as defensive coordinator, a move that I really do think could alter the Jaguars’ recent rough patch. That said, sometimes we ride on gut instinct and I just don’t feel the oomph coming from Jacksonville. I can see the headlines now: “Sports Illustrated NFL Analyst: Jaguars Lack Undefined Something.” This is the same kind of nebulous and haphazard thought process that led me to believe Bill Belichick would just kind of figure it out last year. Take that how you will. I really do think 0–4 is in play for this team, depending on where the Browns are. The beginning of Jacksonville’s schedule is brutal, with an away track meet against the healthy Dolphins in Week 1 followed by more of a slugfest against the Browns in Week 2, then two road games against 2023 playoff teams in Buffalo and Houston. If the beginning of this season goes sour, it really won’t matter what happens at the end because 1–4 is such a deep hole to climb out of. I have the London stretch righting Jacksonville’s ship a bit but the return home from across the pond will include a handful of games against really good teams, or at least teams (like the Vikings) with a versatile and difficult-to-pin-down defense.
Tennessee Titans: 6–11
I shopped my Titans thoughts around to a handful of folks and this is a team I’ve been told I’m the most wrong about. New coach Brian Callahan could end up being great but—bias alert—I have historically found it hard to fall in love with a non-Patriots team that makes a handful of splashy, high-priced free agent moves to bandage holes on the roster. There is a part of me that wants to ride with my pre-draft love of Will Levis and assume Callahan will design something workable for the 2023 second-round pick. But there is another part of me that wonders how they will fare during an absolute ripper of an opening half that has them starting out on the road against the Chicago Bears (a game I handed to the Titans, by the way) before contests against the Jets, Green Bay Packers and Dolphins before a useless early bye. With a ton of veteran skill-position players, I wonder whether the early break will come back to bite them, hence three losses in four weeks to end the season.
AFC West
Kansas City Chiefs: 11–6
Shocker, I have the Kansas City Chiefs in first place in the AFC West. My only fun wrinkle here is a two-game losing streak to start the season, with back-to-back losses to the Ravens and Bengals at home. Picking the Chiefs’ schedule is kind of a dart board process. Two of their six losses last year were to the Las Vegas Raiders and Broncos. The year before that, one of their three losses was to the Colts. And so on. This year, I have them dropping games to the Ravens, Raiders, Chargers (on the road) and a handful of games toward the end of the season against AFC North teams, on the road, intensely vying for playoff spots. I think the general narrative will be: plodding, dynasty Patriots-like slow start, followed by stretches of dominance and then a foot off the accelerator finish which includes resting Patrick Mahomes and other critical players during the season finale against the Broncos.
Los Angeles Chargers: 9–8
I did not know what to do with the Chargers. At all. Justin Herbert has a plantar fascia injury, and I don’t think we’re talking about the state of the roster that was left behind by the previous regime. This was not a good team when Jim Harbaugh took over, and outside of a handful of patchwork moves to add some depth and toughness to the roster, I do not see what some other analysts out there see. The Chargers got battered with negative rest differential during this year’s schedule release, and the foundation for a lot of our reasoning as to their success is … well, Jim Harbaugh is good. So are Sean Payton and Bill Belichick. It doesn’t always matter. All that said, there’s room for them to start hot and build in some margin of error. Games against the Panthers, Cardinals, Raiders, early possible pre-QB change Steelers and Broncos are all taking place before Halloween. Hence, I see a team that can probably buoy itself and get into a spot where a fringe playoff appearance is in the cards.
Las Vegas Raiders: 6–11
I love Antonio Pierce rolling up on Jim Harbaugh in the opener and stealing a victory with Gardner Minshew II. That is absolutely a season-highlight. While I don’t think the Raiders will be awesome, and the absolute best-case scenario may end up being for them to get bad enough to land a quarterback atop the draft for next year, I am leaning on my new motto for 2024: no tanking. Pierce knows this may be his only crack at a head coaching job. He’s not going to expect Mark Davis and Tom Brady to steer his ship through a handful of learning years. Weeks 6 to 9 and Weeks 11 to 14 are particularly perilous for Las Vegas, the former of which will see the Raiders take on Matthew Stafford, Patrick Mahomes and Joe Burrow in the span of three weeks (two of which are on the road). The Week 11 to 14 slate includes three of four games on the road, plus another against a division rival. These long pockets and relative uncertainty at the QB position will make it difficult for the team to find its stride.
Denver Broncos: 5–12
I’m being similarly unfair to Bo Nix, just like I was C.J. Stroud last year when I predicted the Texans would win five games. Nix looked excellent in his second preseason start, after an expectedly frantic debut. Still, I have to wonder whether this Broncos team is good enough to support him through a similarly shocking season. Denver opens the season against Seattle, a game in which I’d normally give the nod to Sean Payton. However, Mike Macdonald’s defense is going to pose some early problems for Nix, especially because we don’t know how it will look now that the system has taken on an entirely different set of personnel. The same can be said for an offense led by OC Ryan Grubb. Denver is simply not going to know what is coming. Vance Joseph, the Broncos’ defensive coordinator, and Payton have decades of sample size. At all points, Denver’s schedule is ruthless and doesn’t allow for much momentum. To begin the season against what you may consider the “lesser” teams on the schedule, they’re still taking three road trips in four weeks. To end the season? Herbert. Burrow. Mahomes (or, maybe by then, a Mahomes backup if the Chiefs are resting starters).
NFC East
Philadelphia Eagles: 10–7
I am not, at least for now, a believer in the great big Eagles regression. I think the team “bottomed out” a year ago and then proceeded to fortify itself with a pair of coordinators (Kellen Moore and Vic Fangio) who are among the best and most adaptable at what they do. I will buy into the idea that either Nick Sirianni or Jalen Hurts are not long for this team, but in the meantime the components of a successful roster still exist. The Eagles are better than the Dallas Cowboys by a decent margin, without the salary cap stressors. If they are able to manage ego, I don’t see how they’d miss the chance to reclaim the NFC East crown. Part of the reason I like the Eagles to stabilize is that they are lacking the kind of brutal stretch on the schedule that threw them out of emotional equilibrium a year ago. They finish the season with a handful of what we’ll term winnable games, and I think some of the pressure will be passed off to a Dallas team that has the look and feel of a powder keg.
Dallas Cowboys: 9–8
I thought I was incredibly generous in putting the Cowboys at 4–2 heading into the bye, which would mean that they survive one of their most difficult stretches with a winning record. I think the New Orleans Saints game will be more difficult than it looks from a distance. They could very, very easily lose to the Ravens. A prime-time game against the Steelers the week before a date with the Detroit Lions is also incredibly thorny. My point is this: I gave Dallas a massive benefit of the doubt early, mostly because I felt that at this time last year prevailing preseason narratives gripped hold of my thought process and turned out to be meaningless. Dallas could just be … fine … right? Great in some games. Lacking depth in others. I’m guessing I will get the most rejection from the fact that I have Dallas losing three straight in Weeks 11 to 13 to the Texans, Washington Commanders and Giants. My reasoning? Young teams are improving at the end of the season, while more veteran teams with thinner depth are trying to hold on. I think Dallas will get caught off-guard by some Malik Nabers energy, some Jayden Daniels energy and some C.J. Stroud energy.
New York Giants: 8–9
I have the Giants pushing beyond their Vegas-expected win total and throwing themselves into the competitive fray this year. I think that would be the best-case scenario for an incredibly young team. Do I expect Daniel Jones to start all of these games? No. Do I expect it to look beautiful? I do not. But I think that if I were a Giants fan, I would try to look at the next two seasons as one continuous season. By that I mean, give these players at wide receiver, cornerback and offensive line a chance to develop and in 2025, when Dallas is still digging itself out of cap hell and the Eagles are possibly starting over at either head coach or quarterback, there will be a foundation here. The headline with this prediction is probably a debilitating four-game losing streak from Weeks 2 to 6, which includes some toss-up losses to the Seahawks and the Commanders. My thought process there is that, with a young secondary, new offenses run by both Seattle and Washington early in the season could cause some issues with unfamiliarity. However, if the Giants fare better during this stretch, I think I’ve outlined a pretty reasonable path for them to be in contention for a wild card spot.
Washington Commanders: 6–11
This one is going to hurt in December. I know it. I can feel it. Jayden Daniels has spent the preseason ripping it up, and we haven’t seen the extent of what is possible from this offense yet, namely how the run and pass games tie in together. I keep belaboring this point, but Daniels is throwing his best guys open with such regularity. He looks like a seasoned professional. So, why only six wins? I found the cadence of the Commanders’ schedule to be difficult. There weren’t these landing strip months like I saw for other teams where Washington could rip off three or four straight wins. It’s back and forth between difficult games and more reasonably winnable ones. We also have to be really careful with overrating Daniels’s preseason performances. Last year around this time, I was convinced that Bryce Young was the rookie of the year and drafting C.J. Stroud was the act of a flailing franchise without the gumption to move up to No. 1. Whoops. Three of the first four Commanders games are on the road, and the home game is a divisional matchup against the Giants in which Daniels will be tested by a speed-oriented outside rush and a pocket-pushing run defense. At the end of the year, two of Washington’s final four games are also on the road, with each of those remaining teams either being coached (or coordinated) by a certified mastermind or in possession of at least two really good edge players.
NFC North
Detroit Lions: 12–5
Surprise! Sports Illustrated’s preseason Super Bowl pick is the Lions, and they’re going to be pretty darn good this year. I’m eager for the season opener against the Rams, which I see a little bit as a primal release for a team that has spent the entirety of this offseason reliving the disappointment of last year’s NFC title game. My prediction is that the intense test for the team’s young but aggressive secondary sets up a pair of letdown games the following two weeks against the Buccaneers and Cardinals before getting right against the Seahawks on Monday Night Football. Most losses projected for the Lions are going to look weird, right? So it’s not out of the realm of possibility that a good team could get clipped by a super veteran-heavy team such as Tampa Bay or Arizona early in the season. What I wanted to reflect with this schedule in particular is that the Lions will step up and win most of the really “big” games: Rams, Cowboys, Bills, 49ers. This is a team with a heavyweight mentality.
Green Bay Packers: 12–5
I have the Packers getting just barely edged out for the NFC North crown, but managing to finish with a handsome 12–5 record. Their only losses: against the Eagles in Brazil, the Rams in Los Angeles, both games against the Lions and a season-finale loss to the Bears. Otherwise, the Packers’ season sets up quite nicely with a navigable schedule and what I would project as some coin-flip wins over Matt LaFleur’s protégés, Sean McVay and Kyle Shanahan. The difference is a defense that finally turns the corner after “getting it right.” LaFleur’s defensive coordinators have been his Achilles heels since entering the league. New DC Jeff Hafley tips the scales.
Chicago Bears: 9–8
My one hope for this schedule that did come to pass was that Chicago would, by the end of this fictional season, be able to squeak into a playoff spot. That happens here with a win over the Packers in the season finale, bringing three teams from the North into the postseason. We are buying high on Caleb Williams, which is always a dangerous proposition for a rookie quarterback, but I like how the narrative of this season unfolds. Chicago loses its first two games because, well, Williams is a rookie and the first game he’ll face a chapped Will Levis and a Ravens-inspired defense that could cause a bit of hell. After that? It’s DeMeco Ryans and the Texans. Welcome to the NFL. From there, Williams does what no other Bears quarterback has been able to do in Chicago: navigate the immense pressure and the hard times. I gave Chicago a three-game winning streak against the Colts, Rams (surprise) and Panthers, before a London loss and the bye. I see a steady build for this Bears team and like them as our Texans-esque team of 2024.
Minnesota Vikings: 7–10
Is it possible to like the Vikings offensively, but worry that they will not be able to close out enough games? I think Sam Darnold will have a good year, but I also think that I’ve been incredibly generous with the doling out of wins and losses. I have Minnesota going 2–3 headed into the bye week. Those games include road matchups with the Giants and Packers, home dates with the 49ers and Texans, and a London game against the Jets. I also have the Vikings coming out of the bye with a stunning stretch that includes victories over the Lions (hey, they have to lose at some point) and the Rams (a Kevin O’Connell matchup against his former boss, Sean McVay, which could produce some unexpected results). I think that’s a fairly optimistic take on what could be a brutal stretch for a team that is still trying to find an identity, especially defensively.
NFC South
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 9–8
I had versions of this in my head where the Saints eked out a division championship and a version where the Atlanta Falcons simply walked away with it. But after going through all the schedules individually and building in for the fact that the Falcons have Raheem Morris readjusting to life as a head coach and Zac Robinson in his first year as a play-caller (same for new Saints offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak), I walked away comfortable with picking the Buccaneers to win the NFC South. It’s not just because I’m afraid of their general manager either; I really like the back end of the Buccaneers’ schedule which, I think, will help them stockpile some critical wins.
You’ll notice I have some big wins and also some head-scratching losses here. I like the Commanders in Week 1 because, if you’ll notice a theme, there isn’t really a playbook on them yet. Todd Bowles is good at making halftime adjustments, but what if the Buccaneers are simply not in a position to contain Washington’s new-look offense? That leads into a massive Week 2 victory over the Lions, which is tailor-made for someone like Baker Mayfield to rally the team into. The pattern goes on, with the Buccaneers losing in Week 3 to an inferior Broncos team before repeating their playoff victory over the Eagles the following week. It’s my way of getting at this idea that they can handle the toughest teams, while also wondering whether they’re consistent enough on a week-to-week basis to run away with the division.
New Orleans Saints: 8–9
I enjoyed watching the Saints during the preseason. I saw something of a live experimentation. Of course Kubiak knows how to call an offense, but I sensed he was looking for those special little elements of the Saints’ roster to push it over the edge. Most teams that run a version of this offense have a kind of “overload” factor. The Dolphins have speed. The 49ers have versatility and toughness. And so we saw Taysom Hill at fullback, for example. Something in an effort to get the defense to react and, perhaps, play a more amenable look.
Anyway, I think this defense is still going to be wicked tough. I think Dennis Allen is a good coach who has endured cap hell and a middling quarterback situation at best. That will result in some tough wins, such as against the Browns and Eagles.
Atlanta Falcons: 8–9
There is a lot to buy into with this Falcons team, when you take a step back and think about it. We have to buy into the fact that Drake London is good and the Zac Robinson scheme is ideally suited for him. We have to buy into the fact that Bijan Robinson will stay healthy at the game’s most perilous position. We have to buy into Kyle Pitts again, despite his length proving to be a bit of a thorny issue. We have to buy into Kirk Cousins coming back from his Achilles tear.
Normally, when there are so many question marks, I’ll take the optimist’s view and believe half of them will work out. Let’s say Cousins and London are a good combination. Let’s say Robinson goes for 1,000 rushing yards and 1,000 receiving yards. Let’s say Pitts has a Sam LaPorta–like season. Would any of that hurl them over the edge in a division with some tough, salty old defenses? I have Atlanta losing in Weeks 2 and 3 to the Eagles and Chiefs, respectively, and also to Denver and New Orleans in back-to-back road trips later on in the season. This schedule is nowhere near intimidating, and it will be their ability to prove me wrong on the latter games, the winnable ones against the league’s middle class, that bear out whether the Falcons are the best of what I think they can be (an 11-victory division winner) or somewhere vying for second place.
Carolina Panthers: 4–13
This feels like a bit of a cop-out but stay with me. What if the Panthers are this year’s Cardinals, in that they are not going to win a great deal of games but the organization will finally feel as though it’s on some kind of solid track? Bryce Young will look good. The offense will look less disjointed. Clearly this team is overmatched from a personnel standpoint, but it will be overmatched with gusto. We’ll find out all we need to find out about the Panthers over the first three weeks of the season, when they have winnable games against the Saints, Chargers and Raiders. I don’t have them winning any of those games, but I think they will be tightly contested, low-scoring, defensive matchups which also feature Young taking good care of himself and the football. If I were a fan, I’d register that as progress.
Here’s a perfect example of what I would like to do versus reality. Last year, I wrote a profile of Panthers head coach Dave Canales, back when he was an assistant with the Buccaneers. Clearly, I thought a great deal of him and still do. I think he’ll end up changing the fortunes of the Panthers. I’d love to give this team eight wins as a blanket expression of that faith, but it’s harder when taking the rest of the league into that context.
NFC WEST
Los Angeles Rams: 11–6
The Rams looked excellent at the end of last season. Puka Nacua has been nursing a bursa sac injury in his knee, but I’m not the least bit concerned about the success of this offense. The Rams had a sixth-round pick, Jordan Whittington, playing a similar role in camp. They have the late arrival of Demarcus Robinson, whom they love. At some point, this offense is going to reach peak efficiency with a scale-tipping number of hard-nosed blocking receivers who can carve up opponents and keep the run game effective and dangerous. I do have the Rams starting a little slow, with big losses to the Lions (in the opener), Bears and 49ers. However, fortunes will turn, especially in Weeks 9 to 13, when a five-game winning streak will set them up for a division title.
San Francisco 49ers: 10–7
We’re trying to tell a story within these predictions, and the one I’m trying to tell with the 49ers is one of vulnerability. Age. Time. And big looming decisions on the future of the quarterback position. San Francisco is never going to be awful with this collection of star power, but the Niners are going to, perhaps, look a little more like the San Antonio Spurs during the end of the Tim Duncan era. It’s less domination and more winning off muscle memory. So, yeah, they’ll win Week 1 against the Jets, but lose Week 2 to a team armed with Sam Darnold’s intimate knowledge of the offense’s inner workings. They’ll rip off a four-game winning streak, but lose the Super Bowl rematch with Kansas City. I have no doubt that, barring catastrophic injury, the 49ers will make the playoffs. My only question is how they’ll do it and what they’ll look like in the process.
Arizona Cardinals: 9–8
I love where the Cardinals ended up in this simulation. The idea of them posting a winning record and competing for a playoff spot was exactly where I saw Jonathan Gannon’s team after a massive, dig-up-the-roots rebuild last year. My theme for their schedule projection is: beating the teams they should and surprising a few that no one thought they could. Last year, the Cardinals throttled a very good Cowboys team. This year, I have them sneaking one by the eventual Super Bowl champion Lions and the defending NFC champion 49ers in the season finale.
Seattle Seahawks: 6–11
I like the idea of Seattle surprising some teams early—including sizable wins over the Broncos and Patriots in the opening two weeks—before enduring some growing pains as defenses catch up and offenses get a broader picture of the widely copied Mike Macdonald defensive philosophy. Then, I have Seattle pulling tight to some good opponents late in the season and playing formidably. I could easily make the case for Seattle to win eight or nine games, and I think that is just as possible. The Seahawks and Cardinals could be interchangeable here in terms of my search for pluckiness out of the bottom rungs of the NFC West. One thing I believe for sure: The job is not too big for Macdonald. We’re in for a very fun year. There are simply stretches of this schedule that are going to be very challenging for a team that is trying to play fast and with finesse. Look, for example, at Weeks 6 to 15. That’s difficult for any team, nevermind a new regime, and it makes up half the season.
Projected playoff standings:
Here are the playoff standings, taking into account all relevant tiebreakers.
Editors’ note, Aug. 28 at 9:45 a.m. ET: This story has been updated to correct the name of Miami Dolphins defensive coordinator Anthony Weaver.
This article was originally published on www.si.com as Predicting Every Game of the 2024 NFL Season.
