In a July Barchart article on the price action in the precious metals sector in Q2, I highlighted the GLTR ETF, which holds a portfolio of the four precious metals trading on the CME’s COMEX and NYMEX divisions. I concluded:
The monthly chart shows GLTR moved 7.8% higher in Q2 and 13.1% to the upside over the first half of 2024. GLTR outperformed the precious metals sector as the ETF invests most of its assets in gold and silver with small allocations to palladium and platinum.
I remain bullish on precious metals for the second half of 2024.
GLTR continued its upward trajectory in Q3. The precious metals metal, including an equally weighted composite of gold, silver, platinum, and palladium, rose 5.07% in Q3 and was 11.6% higher over the first nine months of 2024.
Gold rallies to new highs
Gold led the precious metals higher in Q3, posting a 12.67% gain. Over the first three quarters, gold moved 27.24% higher.
The monthly chart shows that nearby COMEX gold futures settled Q3 at $2,636.10 per ounce, with the December contract rising to a new record peak over $2,700. Gold’s bull market began at the 1999 bottom at $252.50 per ounce, and it has posted an over tenfold increase over the past two and one-half decades.
Silver moves higher as it consolidates near the recent high
COMEX silver futures rose 7.6% in Q3 and were 30.61% higher from the end of 2023 through the end of Q3.
The monthly chart illustrates silver’s bullish price action. Nearby COMEX silver futures settled Q3 at $31.458 per ounce after rising to a new multi-year high in September 2024. Silver has made higher lows and higher highs since the 2020 bottom under $12 per ounce. Silver’s 1980 all-time high at over $50 remains the ultimate upside technical target.
Palladium and rhodium rise
After a substantial decline that took NYMEX palladium futures 76.2% lower from $3,425 in March 2022 to an $813.50 low in August 2024, palladium futures moved 2.28% higher in Q3 but were 9.84% lower over the first three quarters of 2024.
The monthly chart shows palladium’s sideways price action since the August 2024 low, settling Q3 at $1,000.20 per ounce. The sideways trading pattern could be a sign that palladium prices are bottoming after the plunge from the March 2022 record peak.
Rhodium is a platinum group metal that only trades in the physical market. Rhodium is illiquid and subject to high price volatility. In Q3, physical rhodium settled at $4,875 per ounce, rising 3.72% for the quarter and was 7.73% higher over the first nine months of 2024.
Platinum declines
For years, platinum has been a laggard in the precious metals arena. NYMEX platinum futures fell 2.29% in Q3 and were 1.61% lower over the first three quarters of this year.
Nearby NYMEX platinum futures settled Q3 at $979 per ounce and were trading in a sideways trend with $1,000 per ounce as the long-term pivot point.
GLTR remains golden
Gold is the leading precious metal, and its bullish trajectory over the past twenty-five years remains firmly intact. Each correction this century has been a golden buying opportunity.
The metal is in uncharted territory as gold continues to make higher highs. However, the 1980 $875 high, adjusted for inflation, translates to around $3,500 in 2024 dollars, which could be the precious metal’s upside technical target.
Meanwhile, the Aberdeen Physical Precious Metals Basket ETF (GLTR) holds a physical gold, silver, platinum, and palladium basket. The ETF has a higher weighting in gold and silver than in platinum and palladium. GLTR closed Q2 2024 at $102.98 per share.
The chart shows a 10% rise to $113.29 on September 30. GLTR was 24.5% higher over the first three quarters of 2024. GLTR outperformed the precious metals composite in Q3 and over the first nine months of 2024 because of its overweighting to gold and silver, which were up either side of 30% over the first three quarters.
The trend is always your best friend in markets, and it remains higher in gold and silver going into the final months of 2024. Meanwhile, platinum and palladium offer value at around the $1,000 level compared to gold and silver and could surprise on the upside over the coming months.
On the date of publication, Andrew Hecht did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.
