With signs of a rift within the coalition parties, the countdown for the Prayut Chan-o-cha government has begun in advance of it completing its term by March next year.
A number of untoward incidents in the past few weeks, with each coalition partner testing the government's stability, show they are up for a snap poll. One incident was the boycott of the Bhumjaithai (BJT), a key coalition partner, over the cabinet's plan to extend the Green Line concession.
The BJT dared to challenge Gen Prayut and it is confident in its political prowess. It has proved it can deliver most of its flagship policies, particularly its cannabis for health campaign.
The Palang Pracharath Party (PPRP), in comparison, can hardly boast any achievement. A promise of higher daily wages has been stalled.
It's true that Deputy Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul has had trouble tackling the Covid-19 pandemic especially when infection cases surged in April last year. But the BJT leader is able to pass on the blame to Gen Prayut who is head of the Centre for Covid-19 Situation Administration. At the same time, Mr Anutin could claim some credit for the strong performance of health volunteers which won global recognition.
More importantly, the BJT is financially strong.
Mr Anutin owns the construction giant Sino-Thai. His assets, as declared to the National Anti-Corruption Commission in 2019, totalled 4.1 billion baht, an increase of 2.2 billion baht over the past 15 years.
The BJT also takes care of the Transport Ministry, overseeing contracts for several mega-projects worth several billion baht.
In the over three years since the government was formed, the BJT has become a favourite place for politicians in need of a new home, especially when their old party is dissolved such as the now-defunct Future Forward Party. It's the only political party that's added more MPs without an election. From the 51 it had after the 2019 election, the party's House presence has now expanded to 61.
There is also speculation that more politicians are making deals with the party, ahead of the next election.
It's highly possible that the BJT, which was the third-largest party after the PPRP and Pheu Thai in the 2019 election, could end up in second place after the next one.
If that's the case, Mr Anutin may enjoy an added bonus with the premiership up for grabs. Such a scenario is not impossible given the BJT's advantage as a centre-right conservative party, with some distance from the military.
Under such circumstances, the BJT is in a position to reap all the political gains it can get along the way.
There have been some strange incidents worth considering. Among them is the support of MPs from the BJT, along with others in the coalition from the Democrat Party and Thamanat Prompow's Setthakij Thai, for a bill proposed by the Move Forward Party (MFP) to allow small-scale distilleries enter the market, breaking the hold on the industry by a few large firms. With the MPs' help, the deliberation of the bill has been accelerated as it has been tabled for cabinet consideration. The MFP has welcomed the support in what has been seen as a small victory.
Meanwhile, parliament appears not to be in a good state, given a series of House session quorum collapses, 17 since the government took office in 2019.
Initially, it was believed the faction under Capt Thamanat was the root of the instability, but it turns out that politicians in the government and opposition all want to rock the boat.
As of now, the BJT is enjoying its moment as an independent player in the Prayut administration. It has no commitment to say "yes" to all the government's decisions.
No longer will it care for political norms, but will do what it calls are things in the "public interest". Take for example the row over the proposed Green Line contract extension.
Other coalition partners, such as the Democrat Party, have also started breaking ranks with Gen Prayut on key matters including charter amendment. The Democrat Party was particularly upset that the PPRP claimed credit for the success of the Khon La Khrueng co-payment subsidy scheme, instead of declaring it a government achievement.
Another key player is Capt Thamanat and his Setthakij Thai Party. Even though Deputy Prime Minister Gen Prawit Wonsuwon is confident he can control the new party, its support for the MFP-initiated alcohol bill strongly suggests a lack of unity within the coalition.
Therefore, Gen Prawit's assurances about Capt Thamanat's support may just be wishful thinking. On the contrary, unless Gen Prayut reshuffles the cabinet, giving back cabinet quotas to Capt Thamanat before parliament reopens in May, it's likely the PM will experience greater challenges.
Some observers are keeping an eye on Capt Thamanat's party and are considering it as an accelerator for change now that two major bills on political parties and the election of MPs, are to be vetted in parliament over the next two weeks.
It is believed that Capt Thamanat's party will choose to play an independent role, not aligning with the government or the opposition.
It's highly likely the party will vote against the two bills in the initial stage. Such a stance should enable the former PPRP secretary-general to strengthen his bargaining power in dealing with Gen Prayut.
However, support from the Senate should see the two bills sail through, and that could save Gen Prayut and his administration for a while.
But how long will the government last?
Technically, Gen Prayut may be able to wade through troubled waters much longer, but he cannot allow the crisis of confidence to continue.
In fact, he should look closely at messages from the private sector which typically refrains from talking ill about the government. Now, more than a few leaders in the private sector are speaking out about the need for political change through House dissolution and new elections which they believe could restore unity. Such a move they say would be good for the economy and the country as a whole.
They think the government should not struggle on and that the country needs an election because, in their own words, things couldn't be worse. Of course, this is not music to Gen Prayut's ears.
But the prime minister and his crew cannot deny the fact that their support base is not as strong as it once was.
With regard to uncertainty in the PPRP, Seksakon Atthawong, vice minister to the PM's office, has set up a new political party, supposedly as a safe place for the prime minister to turn to. Yet, several believe the time is up for Gen Prayut.
Gen Prayut has said he wants to stay on, at least until the Apec meeting in November, but there are too many uncontrollable factors in play as his popularity nosedives. Under such circumstances, Gen Prayut will find he does not have many choices but to play along with the political game by dissolving parliament and bracing for whatever comes next.
