The NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs are here, and after an unpredictable regular season, we’re just 10 races away from crowning a champion at the finale in Phoenix.
With the playoffs beginning with the Southern 500 at Darlington, FTW NASCAR analysts Nick Schwartz and Michelle Martinelli, along with Motorsports Wire’s Austin Konenski, ranked every title contender, from the longshots to the favorites.
Each writer ranked drivers from 1 to 16, and we took the average placement of every driver to determine our final power ranking.
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16. Ricky Stenhouse Jr.
Results so far: 1 win, 2 top 5s, 7 top 10s
Stenhouse’s playoff run will be short, but the guy won the Daytona 500! JTG Daugherty Racing should still be celebrating from February.
15. Michael McDowell
Results so far: 1 win, 2 top 5s, 6 top 10s
Unfortunately for McDowell, the series doesn’t head to the Charlotte Roval until the second round of the playoffs. McDowell did record two top 10s at Darlington in 2022, so there is some reason for hope, but he’ll need to have some chaos occur among his playoff rivals to reach the Round of 12. — Nick Schwartz
14. Bubba Wallace
Results so far: 0 wins, 4 top 5s, 6 top 10s
Wallace historically hasn’t been great at Darlington, but he did record a fifth-place finish there in May.
If Bubba can regain that stretch of form from the middle of the season, he’d be a shoo-in to make it to the next round, especially as he’s the defending race winner in the fall Kansas race. But Wallace has finished outside the top 10 in 11 of his last 12 races, and that’s not going to get it done in the playoffs. — NS
13. Ryan Blaney
Results so far: 1 win, 4 top 5s, 12 top 10s
Blaney’s second half of the season has been brutal, with six finishes of 22nd or worse in his last 11 races – five of those finishes coming in the 30s – and no finish better than 9th. That Coke 600 win seems so long ago at this point. — NS
12. Kevin Harvick
Results so far: 0 wins, 6 top 5s, 12 top 10s
Being one of three winless playoff drivers probably isn’t where Harvick hoped to start his last championship chase, but that’s where the soon-to-be retired driver is. That leaves him 15th in the playoff standings and below the cut line for the Round of 12 — though the point differential is tiny. I’d count on Harvick to advance out of the Round of 16, especially with his ample experience, plus three career wins at each of the three playoff tracks in the opening round. He might not make it out of the Round of 12, assuming he advances, but I suspect he’ll get one last win before his farewell season ends. –Michelle Martinelli
11. Joey Logano
Results so far: 1 win, 8 top 5s, 13 top 10s
A strong result at Darlington, where Logano has been excellent in recent years, will be crucial for the No. 22 team, as will a reversal of fortunes at Bristol. Logano last finished inside the top 10 at the Bristol night race in 2018. — NS
10. Ross Chastain
Results so far: 1 win, 6 top 5s, 9 top 10s
Going into the playoffs last season, Chastain had two wins but the most recent one was in April of that year at Talladega Superspeedway. He didn’t win a third race but managed to advance to the Championship 4. Of course, that run was monumentally memorable because of his heroics at Martinsville Speedway, but for that wild video game move to work, he and the team needed to have the championship round within their grasp.
Chastain’s 2023 has been a bit different, and he enters the postseason with just one top-10 finish in the last nine races. I don’t expect him to be among the final four this time — more likely the Round of 8 or 12 — but he proved he can never be counted out. –MM
9. Brad Keselowski
Results so far: 0 wins, 6 top 5s, 11 top 10s
I never would have guessed at the start of the season that two RFK drivers would fall within the top nine of this ranking, but the organization’s ascension since Keselowski took over has been astounding.
Keselowski isn’t a bad pick to win Sunday’s Southern 500. He’s got the fifth-best average finish in the field at Darlington since 2020, and he’s finished 7th in each of the last two years. — NS
8. Tyler Reddick
Results so far: 1 win, 7 top 5s, 11 top 10s
For every great finish Reddick has had in 2023, he’s seemingly had two or three finishes in the 30s. From Gateway to Atlanta he endured a five-race stretch of 27th or worse, but he’s proven at points throughout the season that he can be competitive at a variety of tracks and not just road courses.
The biggest key for Reddick’s team will be limiting mistakes and staying out of trouble – it’s extremely difficult to climb out of a points deficit if you have one bad race in the playoffs. — NS
7. Christopher Bell
Results so far: 1 win, 6 top 5s, 13 top 10s
It’s been a strangely quiet season for Bell. While his Joe Gibbs teammate Martin Truex Jr. has been setting the pace atop the leaderboard, Bell hasn’t been in the picture to win consistently this year. Still, this is a guy who won two playoff races a season ago in a stretch of good results that started around the same time in 2022. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Bell among the final four contenders at Phoenix. — NS
6. Kyle Busch
Results so far: 3 wins, 8 top 5s, 14 top 10s
After not having the best August with a 23.5 average finish in four races, Busch is surely looking to turn things around for his first playoff run with Richard Childress Racing. As one of two two-time Cup champions going for No. 3, he knows what it takes to make a deep playoff run. I wouldn’t be surprised if Busch is able to advance to the next round on points but locks himself in with a checkered flag at Bristol Motor Speedway. He’s found success with his new No. 8 team, and I’m guessing he’ll make it to the Round of 8 before being eliminated. –MM
5. Chris Buescher
Results so far: 3 wins, 6 top 5s, 12 top 10s
Chris Buescher is suddenly the hottest driver in all of NASCAR, winning three of the last five Cup Series races in spectacular fashion. RFK comes into the playoffs with tremendous momentum after a 1-2 finish at Daytona. Buescher winning at Richmond was a surprise, but he can no longer be doubted in the championship race after what he’s accomplished in the last five weeks. — NS
4. Kyle Larson
Results so far: 2 wins, 10 top 5s, 12 top 10s
Larson doesn’t have much momentum – he’s finished 19th or worse in four of the last six – but the slate of playoff tracks suits the No. 5 team well, and Larson has amassed six playoff wins over the last two seasons. If not for his midseason run-ins with Denny Hamlin, we’d likely have a very different perspective on Larson’s championship chances right now. — NS
3. Denny Hamlin
Results so far: 2 wins, 9 top 5s, 12 top 10s
The biggest question facing Denny Hamlin is his status with Joe Gibbs Racing and whether or not his ongoing contract saga could prove to be a distraction. Hamlin’s contract is set to expire, and while he’s repeatedly said he wants to stay at Joe Gibbs Racing, his status as a team owner with 23XI has been complicating proceedings. — NS
2. William Byron
Results so far: 5 wins, 9 top 5s, 13 top 10s
A strong pick to make it to the Championship 4, Bryon and the No. 24 team have a lot going for them into the playoffs. Five wins at vastly different tracks (three of which are in the playoffs), the most laps led this season, a three-way tie for second-most top-5 finishes, and a nice little points cushion that, with strong early playoff finishes, could help carry them to the Round of 12, if not the Round of 8. That’s a great starting point, and if Bryon and the team can execute, expect them to compete for the title. — MM
1. Martin Truex Jr.
Results so far: 3 wins, 9 top 5s, 15 top 10s
It’s hard to believe that Truex Jr. started the season with a pedestrian string of results, because he’s been unstoppable since his win at Dover in May. Since Dover, Truex Jr. has finished in the top 5 in 50 percent of all races, and finished in the top 10 in 75 percent of all races.
Byron’s Hendrick Chevrolet may ultimately be the faster car when everything is going his way, but Truex is a consistent playoff performer, and the 43-year-old veteran is the pick to win his second career title in 2023. — NS
