The 2024 presidential race appears to be shaping up as a potential three-way contest, according to recent polls and discussions surrounding potential third-party candidates. A recent ABC News Ipsos poll found that 37% of voters would seriously consider voting for a third-party candidate if the choice was between President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump. This number increases to 51% among independent and moderate women.
In a three-way matchup, a Reuters poll indicates that Trump currently leads with 36% of the vote, followed by Biden at 30%, and independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. at 8%. Other polls have shown Kennedy with even higher numbers, particularly in key battleground states where he garnered approximately a quarter of the vote.
Political pollster Mark Penn asserts that a viable third-party candidate presents one of the biggest threats to Joe Biden's re-election. A memo from Democratic strategist Doug Sosnick last June stated that Trump's chances of winning rely on a third-party candidate dividing the anti-Trump vote. Notably, Trump has never reached 50% in any of the competitive states that determined the outcome of the past two presidential elections, except for Georgia in 2016.
Regarding border crossings, there is a growing concern about the record-breaking number of crossings in December. Kennedy believes that several measures need to be taken to address this issue. He emphasizes the need to restore and complete the border infrastructure, particularly in urban areas, through the use of physical barriers. In rural areas like Big Bend National Park, he suggests implementing surveillance systems with long-range cameras, sensors, lighting, and necessary access roads. Additionally, Kennedy proposes empowering border personnel to effectively address illegal migration and emphasizes the need to expedite asylum cases by deploying asylum judges to the border. Kennedy aims to revive the Migrant Protection Act, which would allow border agents to keep asylum seekers in Mexico while awaiting their asylum determinations.
In terms of campaign logistics, Kennedy affirms that his team is making progress in collecting signatures to appear on state ballots. He expresses confidence in being on the ballot in all 50 states and the District of Columbia. Regarding a potential alliance with the Libertarian Party, Kennedy states that they have a good relationship and are in ongoing discussions. While nothing is confirmed, Kennedy suggests that seeking the Libertarian ballot position remains a possibility.
As the potential three-way contest unfolds, these early developments and discussions demonstrate the evolving landscape of the 2024 presidential race. With the potential for a viable third-party candidate, voter sentiments are shifting, and the outcome could substantially impact the electoral dynamics.
