The post-pandemic return to the office may have stalled, according to the latest passenger numbers from Transport for London.
TfL finance chiefs have warned that commuter numbers appeared to have reached an “equilibrium” and have only grown by 1.1 per cent in each of the last three months, compared with the same periods last year, and by an average of two per cent since April.
TfL had expected passenger journeys to rise by six per cent in 2024/25, in the wake of a nine per cent jump in 2023/24.
TfL finance chief Patrick Doig told the TfL board that the “return to the office” was key to TfL continuing to grow its income.
But since April there have been 52m fewer journeys on the capital’s public transport network than expected, resulting in £78m less fares income than hoped.
Mr Doig said TfL had assumed that commuting habits would continue to return to pre-pandemic norms, as fewer people worked from home, though at a slower rate than last year.
“The evidence we have got, and it is hard to measure office attendance directly, is that that growth has decelerated at a faster rate than we had assumed,” he said. “We could be at an equilibrium.”
This means that TfL has a £16m deficit in its accounts and is facing a £150m shortfall in anticipated income over the course of the financial year.
TfL has now revised its projected annual profit – or “operating surplus” – down from £161m to £61m, for the period up to the end of next March.
In the last financial year TfL made an operating surplus of £138m – the first time in it history it made a “profit” on its day-to-day operations.
TfL made its first-ever “operating surplus”, of £138m, in 2023/24, the @TfL board has been told.
— Ross Lydall (@RossLydall) June 12, 2024
Mayor @SadiqKhan says it is a “remarkable achievement” and a “big deal”.
Surplus is £59m up on budget but not as big as the £162m anticipated several months ago - unclear why
Tube journeys are up two per cent but are 20m below target – with the ongoing lack of trains on the Central line a factor.
Bus journeys are up 1.3 per cent but are almost 30m below target. Delays to journeys as a result of traffic congestion is the biggest disincentive to bus travel.
While the Elizabeth line is carrying 13.5 per cent more passengers, journeys on the London Overground are only up 0.5 per cent, while the DLR has seen a 3.5 per cent reduction. Passenger numbers on the Croydon tram are down nearly 20 per cent.
The slowdown in journey numbers is said to be in part due to the lower than average wage rises received by younger Londoners – a group of people who travel more than older people.
As a result, TfL is now having to trim its expenditure. However, other operating income is £18m up on budget from higher Ulez enforcement income.
Mr Doig said: “It’s a challenge but not at a similar scale to the pandemic.”
