Once free agency frenzy has died down in any new league year, it’s fun and necessary to put our minds back in full draft mode, and see how all the transactions might have affected the first round and beyond. Of course, the biggest potential story of the league year so far — Aaron Rodgers’ continued star turn in “Survivor: Green Bay” has not resolved itself yet, and since we’re all pretty much sick of it, I’ll make this short.
For the purposes of this mock draft, the Packers eat enough of Rodgers’ remaining contract to get the first-round pick they want in return. That would be the 13th overall pick, which the Jets currently hold. There, done.
That’s the big trade involving a quarterback in this mock draft if we’re not counting the ridiculous haul the Seahawks got in the Russell Wilson heist, which now starts to bear fruit. Or, the trade the Panthers made with the Bears to go up to the first overall pick. In this case, we also have the Buccaneers moving up a bit with the aforementioned Packers to get their Tom Brady replacement, though it may take a year or two for this particular quarterback to be NFL-ready.
With all that out of the way, here’s how the first three rounds of the 2023 NFL draft might look in the post-free agency landscape.
(Note: The Miami Dolphins, who would have had the 21st overall pick, forfeited that pick as punishment from the NFL for tampering).
(All advanced metrics courtesy of Pro Football Focus, Sports Info Solutions, and Football Outsiders unless otherwise indicated).
1. Carolina Panthers (from Chicago Bears): C.J. Stroud, QB, Ohio State
If this is how the first pick in the draft goes, the Panthers and head coach Frank Reich get the quarterback with the best combination of mechanics, ball placement, and field vision in this class — with mobility that was underrated and relatively unseen until Stroud’s final collegiate game against Georgia. There are some intriguing targets for Stroud to hit, with Adam Thielen, Laviska Shenault, Rashard Higgins, Hayden Hurst, and Tommy Tremble, and Carolina’s offensive line is better than you might think. Pack that with Reich’s well-known understanding of how to put a passing game together, and the Panthers are well on their way back to relevance.
2. Houston Texans: Bryce Young, QB, Alabama
Young is far from a consolation prize for the Texans, who have been looking to replace Deshaun Watson as a franchise quarterback, and in this case get a guy with a lot of Watson’s on-field characteristics without any of the off-field stuff. There will be questions about Young’s size (5-foot-10 and 201 at the combine; he probably played at closer to 185 pounds), which makes him a complete outlier in today’s NFL. Some may wonder if it’s wise to hand a franchise to a quarterback Doug Flutie’s size, but Watson’s on-field acumen and movement skills should end those arguments, and he’s proven for the most part that he’s able to avoid the big hits.
3. Arizona Cardinals: Will Anderson Jr. Edge, Alabama
The Cardinals would probably love to trade down, but when the Colts traded with the Bears to move up to the No. 1 pick, that likely went right out the window. Everybody knows Arizona isn’t taking a quarterback, so they stay at three here. And with that pick, they get Alabama’s Anderson, who led the nation in sacks last season with 14, combined for 65 pressures (fourth in the nation against top competition), and put up 30 stops and had an interception for good measure. Anderson isn’t the “bendiest” or most flexible edge-rusher in this class, but he knows how to get the job done. The Cardinals, who lost J.J. Watt to retirement, Zach Allen to free agency, and have very little on the edge or the interior with which to disrupt opposing quarterbacks, should be perfectly happy with that.
4. Indianapolis Colts: Anthony Richardson, QB, Florida
New Colts head coach and former Eagles offensive coordinator Shane Steichen made his way to the Super Bowl on an offense that revolved around a talented young quarterback in Jalen Hurts who developed as a passer at the same time he was able to conduct a marvelous quarterback-led run game. Richardson would amplify those concepts to a frightening degree — as much as he does need work as a pure passer, the athleticism is off the charts, and he could come right in and have a Justin Fields-like effect on an offense that has been in the quarterback desert since Andrew Luck’s retirement.
5. Seattle Seahawks (from Denver Broncos): Christian Gonzalez, CB, Oregon
Pete Carroll and John Schneider each spoke at the scouting combine about how much the Seahawks needs to improve their front seven, and the acquisition of Dre’Mont Jones in free agency will help. Seattle could add to that with the first of their picks in the Russell Wilson haul, but it’s good to note that they also grabbed former Giants safety Julian Love in free agency, so it’s just as likely they add to the secondary here. Gonzalez, a ridiculously athletic cornerback with size, aggression, and the ability to shut any receiver down at the boundary, would be an ideal fit as Carroll’s cornerback prototype, and good luck testing the outside combination of Gonzalez and Tariq Woolen in 2023 and beyond.
6. Detroit Lions (from Los Angeles Rams): Devon Witherspoon, CB, Illinois
The Lions made two great cornerback deals in free agency with the signings of Cameron Sutton and Emmanuel Moseley, and the addition of C.J. Gardner-Johnson to pair with Kerby Joseph at safety is a home run, but do they need more? Detroit was a slam-dunk at cornerback for every mock drafter last week, and maybe it still should be. It will be hard for the Lions to move past Witherspoon — last season, the Illinois alum had numbers that bordered on the ridiculous, and the tape backed it up.
Witherspoon was sidelined from scouting combine drills due to a hamstring injury, but the Lions would greatly transform their secondary even more than they did in free agency with his addition.
7. Las Vegas Raiders: Joey Porter Jr., CB, Penn State
Last season, the Raiders’ cornerbacks allowed 10 touchdowns and had just two interceptions. That’s not great, and the team was unable to add any major help in free agency, so if it’s going to happen, it’s going to happen in the draft. Moreover, the Raiders under defensive coordinator Patrick Graham played a lot of man coverage, and they were really, really bad at it – five of their touchdowns allowed and none of their picks came in man coverage. Porter isn’t the most fluid cornerback in transition, but he is a big, aggressive, press defender with a ridiculous wingspan who can erase good receivers in the right schemes.
8. Atlanta Falcons: Tyree Wilson, EDGE, Texas Tech
The Falcons did a nice job of poaching pass-rush talent from the Saints, their NFC South rival, with linebacker Kaden Elliss and defensive lineman David Onyemata. However, this was still one of the NFL’s worst pass-rushing teams, especially from the edge, so it’ll be no surprise if that’s what Atlanta targets with the eighth overall pick. At 6-foot-6 and 271 pounds, Wilson is still raw with his pass-rush moves, but the height/weight/speed combination bombs right off the tape, and he can create pressure from just about any gap. Wilson may be a first-year investment as his NFL coaches refine his skills, but the payoff might be immense.
9. Chicago Bears (from Indianapolis Colts): Jalen Carter, DL, Georgia
At some point, some team is going to move past Jalen Carter’s off-field issues, and his sub-par pro day, and drop the hammer on the player who was the consensus No. 1 prospect in this draft, regardless of position, before everything started to fall apart. The Bears, who have scheduled a visit with Carter to try and figure it all out, were the NFL’s worst pass-rushing team in 2022 (their 20 sacks and 85 pressures each ranked dead last), and while the free agency addition of former Titans defensive end Demarcus Walker is a great get, it’s not enough — and if Carter can get past all this stuff and get his mind right, he has proven to be completely transformative to a defense. No team needs his talent more than the Bears, so let’s have the Bears taking that chance.
10. Philadelphia Eagles (from New Orleans Saints): Myles Murphy, EDGE, Clemson
The Eagles had a ton of free agents on defense, and it should come as no surprise that super-ninja general manager Howie Roseman managed to retain more players than he lost. The losses of defensive tackle Javon Hargrave, and linebackers T.J. Edwards and Kyzir White, might hurt in the short term, so why do we have the Eagles taking a pass-rusher with the 10th overall pick? Because if Jalen Carter is off the board here, there aren’t players at those positions who project this highly, and Murphy, at 6-foot-5 and 268 pounds, can annoy enemy quarterbacks from multiple gaps, and he would be a great fit in the five-man fronts the Eagles like to run more than just about anybody else. Murphy had six sacks and 34 total pressures last season, but the tape is better than the numbers.
11. Tennessee Titans: Paris Johnson Jr., OT, Ohio State
After releasing Taylor Lewan, the Titans signed former Eagles first-round left tackle Andre Dillard to a three-year, $29 million deal. That would seem to indicate low starter money, but given Dillard’s NFL career, I’m guessing that the guaranteed money will scream “Swing, and prepare for a miss.” That deal should in no way change Tennessee’s plans for a franchise left tackle in the draft, and Johnson certainly qualifies. Last season, he allowed two sacks, no quarterback hits, and 12 quarterback hurries in 449 pass-blocking snaps, enveloped a lot of the edge-rushers he faces, and has enough on the ball in the run game to fit the Titans’ stylistic preferences right away.
12. Houston Texans (from Cleveland Browns): Jordan Addison, WR, USC
The Texans have to give Bryce Young more than Brandin Cooks, Chris Moore, and Nico Collins as their 1-2-3 punch at receiver (especially after they traded Cooks to the Cowboys), and that process starts here. Addison isn’t the biggest receiver in this class at 5-foot-11 and 173 pounds, but he is an absolute route architect who can get open anywhere on the field. Last season, he caught 59 passes for 875 yards and eight touchdowns, with nine of those catches for 370 yards and two touchdowns coming on passes of 20 or more air yards. Young will immediately appreciate how Addison expands the expected catch radius, not that Young needs it.
13. Green Bay Packers (from New York Jets): Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR, Ohio State
The Packers never took a receiver in the first round of the Aaron Rodgers era — the last time they did so was with Florida State’s Javon Walker in 2002 — so we can only imagine the passive-aggressive whining on the Pat McAfee show from the Jets’ new quarterback were this pick to happen. Regardless, Smith-Njigba would be a fantastic addition to Matt LaFleur’s offense as a slot weapon and outside guy who can get open at all levels of the field. Smith-Njigba looked great at the combine after missing time in 2022 due to injury, so you can project the guy who caught 95 passes for 1,606 yards and nine touchdowns in 2021.
14. New England Patriots: Peter Skoronski, OT, Northwestern
The Patriots did a lot of interesting under-the-radar things in free agency, including the addition of Riley Reiff, who can play left and right tackle at a league-average level. But let the word “league-average” be your guide. Skoronski is a plug-and-play left tackle despite some concerns about his size (6-foot-4 and 313 pounds, with 32 1/4-inch arms), but the tape and the level of blocking do not lie. Last season, Skoronski allowed one sack, two quarterback hits, and three quarterback hurries in 474 pass-blocking snaps, and the best thing I can say about Skoronski as a blocker is that he’s… well, boring. He just shows up, shuts his guy down, and goes home. After all the struggles to establish their tackles over the last few years, the Patriots would be just fine with boring.
15. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (from Green Bay Packers) Will Levis, QB, Kentucky
Here, the Buccaneers trade up with the Packers for the top guy in the second wave of quarterbacks in this class. General manager Jason Licht can say all he wants about Kyle Trask and recent addition Baker Mayfield, but both of those quarterbacks present low ceilings, and in Trask’s case, the ceiling may be below his head. Not that Levis is anything approaching a finished prospect — his tape alternates wildly between impressive shot plays, and decisions you wouldn’t want from a high-school quarterback. Nonetheless, NFL teams will over-bet on traits at this position, and Levis has those. It will now be up to new offensive coordinator Dave Canales, who certainly experienced quarterback drama during his time in Seattle, to settle Levis down and make the most of what he does offer.
16. Washington Commanders: Broderick Jones, OT, Georgia
Do the Commanders need cornerbacks? Yes, but if there’s a run on the position as there was early in this particular mock, there’s no reason to reach. Washington has Charles Leno at left tackle… which isn’t a bad option, but the team could do better for new offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy. Jones is a true mauler in the run game, both at the line of scrimmage and on the move, and he allowed no sacks and just nine total pressures in 470 pass-blocking snaps last season against some of the most formidable pass-rushers in the nation.
17. Pittsburgh Steelers: Kelee Ringo, CB, Georgia
The Steelers did what they needed to go at the guard positions in free agency with Isaac Seumalo and Nate Herbig, so maybe they go offensive tackle here to shore up the outside. Or, they might address the fact that they’re cornerback-light after losing Cameron Sutton to the Lions. Signing Patrick Peterson to a two-year, $14 million deal is a nice Band-Aid, but everybody knows that Peterson is basically on his way out in a career sense. What Peterson can do to help his new team is to get a physically gifted cornerback up from his currently inconsistent play to more stability. Ringo at his best is as good as any cornerback in this class (especially in man coverage), but the peaks and valleys are problematic. We’re guessing that the Steelers bet on Ringo’s upside, with his new coaching staff (and one veteran defensive genius) assisting with the other stuff.
(The Steelers, by the way, played Cover-0, Cover-1, or 2-Man on 204 pass defense snaps, which ranked seventh-highest in the league).
18. Detroit Lions: Bryan Bresee, DL, Clemson
The Lions have some decent talent in the middle of their defensive fronts with Alim McNeill and Isaiah Buggs, but Detroit finished in the middle of the pack in both sacks (39) and pressures (149), so let’s help out that great new cornerback group with more quarterback disruption. Bresee does have injury issues in his past, but at 6-foot-5 1/2 and 299 pounds, he can roar through blockers from just about any gap. Last season, Bresee had three sacks, four quarterback hits, and 17 quarterback hurries in just 203 pass-rushing snaps, and he’s good enough against the run to keep himself on the field.
19. Green Bay Packers (from Tampa Bay Buccaneers): Anton Harrison, OT, Oklahoma
Packers left tackle David Bakhtiari is a top-five player at his position when he’s healthy, but that’s a big caveat these days, as Bakhtiari unfortunately hasn’t played a full season since 2019. Bakhtiari will also turn 32 on September 30, and his contract gets pretty obstreperous after the 2023 season. So, it might be time to Green Bay to set up a succession plan, and they could do a lot worse than Harrison, who I believe to be the most underrated left tackle in this draft class. Last season, he allowed one sack, no quarterback hits, and eight quarterback hurries in 447 pass-blocking reps, and overall, he’s as clean a player in the pass and run games as you could ask for at the position.
20. Seattle Seahawks: Isaiah Foskey, EDGE, Notre Dame
So, the Seahawks got Dre’Mont Jones in free agency, they have the underrated Uchenna Nwosu on the edge, and Darrell Taylor and Boye Mafe have potential outside as well. But again, the determination with which Pete Carroll and John Schneider spoke about the need for that front seven to get better should not preclude anybody from thinking that they won’t go whole-hog on the defensive front. Even with a run on edge guys earlier in the draft, the class is deep enough for teams to get talent well into the second and third days.
Here, we pair the Seahawks with Notre Dame’s Foskey, who had 12 sacks, three quarterback hits, and 18 quarterback hurries in just 311 pass-rushing reps last season. At 6-foot-5 and 264 pounds, Foskey has proven the ability to get pressure from multiple gaps, and the Seahawks certainly like that. Foskey is a powerful finisher whose best football could be ahead of him.
21. Los Angeles Chargers: Quentin Johnston, WR, TCU
It is hoped that the switch from Joe Lombardi to Kellen Moore as the Chargers’ offensive coordinator will finally take Justin Herbert out of the aDOT nightmare he’s been living in, and the addition of Johnston with the 21st pick would certainly speed that along — literally. There are legitimate questions about Johnston’s hands and route acumen at this point in his career, but when you have a 6-foot-3, 208-pound receiver who flashes true track speed on the field, that’s a spicy meatball. Johnston caught 10 passes of 20 or more air yards on 25 targets for the Horned Frogs last season for 427 yards and five touchdowns, and he’s proven to be a YAC nightmare against enemy defenses when everything is on point.
22. Baltimore Ravens: Jalin Hyatt, WR, Tennessee
Speaking of teams in need of explosiveness at receiver, there’s the Baltimore Ravens, year after year. We’re still waiting to see how the Lamar Jackson situation resolves itself, but with or without Jackson, Baltimore clearly needs help for their quarterback. Hyatt, who blew up in Josh Heupel’s Air Raid offense last season for 67 catches for 1,267 yards and 18 touchdowns, also caught 14 passes of 20 or more air yards on 24 targets for 677 yards and eight touchdowns. Hyatt isn’t nearly as big as Johnston (6-foot-0, 176 pounds), but he’s proven to have better hands in contested catch situations, and good luck contesting Hyatt at all once he’s at full speed.
23. Minnesota Vikings: Cam Smith, CB, South Carolina
The first thing you need to know about Minnesota’s defense in 2023 is that Brian Flores is a massive upgrade over Ed Donatell as the team’s defensive coordinator. The second thing you need to know is that Flores has always preferred to run aggressive defenses with blitzes and man coverage. The third thing you need to know is that after signing former Cardinals cornerback Byron Murphy and losing Patrick Peterson in free agency, the Vikings are probably the NFL’s most cornerback-light team. If the Vikings were to select Smith here, he’d be a perfect fit in that he’s a big (6-foot-1, 180), consistent, aggressive defender who can lock receivers down in both press and off coverage. Last season, when in man coverage, Smith allowed just seven catches on 23 targets for 53 yards and four pass breakups. You can imagine Flores grinning as he watches Smith’s tape.
24. Jacksonville Jaguars: Darnell Wright, OT, Tennessee
The Jaguars really had no choice to let right tackle Jawaan Taylor head out the door when the Chiefs offered him a four-year, $80 million deal with $60 million guaranteed. The question now is, how do they solve the problem of replacing Taylor as Cam Robinson’s bookend? How about drafting a guy in Darnell Wright who not only allowed no sacks, two quarterback hits, and six quarterback hurries in 507 pass-blocking snaps, but just erased two estimable SEC pass-rushers — LSU’s BJ Ojulari and Alabama’s Will Anderson Jr. — with radically different body types and play styles in back-to-back weeks.
I asked Wright at the scouting combine how he did all of that, and I was impressed with his process. My guess is, Jaguars head coach Doug Pederson would be, too.
25. New York Giants: Trenton Simpson, LB, Clemson
The Giants re-signed Daniel Jones to a four-year, $160 million deal with $105 million guaranteed, and while we could debate the wisdom of that all day long, at least the team has given Jones more weapons in receiver Parris Campbell (via free agency) and tight end Darren Waller (via trade). So, maybe they use this pick to amplify a defense that Wink Martindale coached to its highest potential in 2022. The free-agency addition of former Colts linebacker Bobby Okereke was a sneaky-good move for a linebacker group that scared nobody last season, and here, the G-Men also add Simpson, an athletic freak who, like a lot of Clemson linebackers over the last few years, can do just about anything at a very high level. It will be up to Martindale to decide where Simpson best fits in his defense, but as an off-ball athlete who can cover and get pressures on the edge, he’d be a fascinating fit here.
26. Dallas Cowboys: Bijan Robinson, RB, Texas
Several situations led me to this pick, which will seem nonsensical to some after Ezekiel Elliott’s release. There’s Ezekiel Elliott’s release. There’s the trade for Stephon Gilmore, which takes the Cowboys out of desperate need for a Trevon Diggs bookend, at least in the short term. There’s the fact that Mike McCarthy wants to run the dang ball more, which… well, it’s Mike McCarthy. I don’t know what to tell you. Dallas placed the franchise tag on Tony Pollard, but as great as Pollard is, he’s never had more than 214 carries in a season (2022), and in three of his four NFL seasons, he hasn’t topped 135.
So, the addition of Robinson, who is the most dynamic collegiate running back since Elliott or Saquon Barkley, take your pick — but he’s certainly in that class. If you want to lead with the run, why not select a guy who ran the ball 257 times for 1,575 yards, 18 touchdowns, an astonishing 104 missed tackles forced, and 79 first downs? If your head coach wants to keep his defense off the field, this is the running back you want to do that.
27. Buffalo Bills: Clark Phillips III, CB, Utah
Last season, Bills cornerback Tre’Davious White missed all but six games, and while he was pretty much the same guy as before when he was on the field, when a 28-year-old cornerback starts missing time, you start to worry. The combination of Taron Johnson, Kaiir Elam, Christian Benford, and Dane Jackson did a good job in White’s stead, and all those guys are back for 2023, but the Bills play more nickel than any other team on an every-year basis, so they need more cornerbacks than some other teams. That’s the math. The Bills have done well with smaller cornerbacks, and Phillips, at 5-foot-9 and 184 pounds, is an assignment-correct, scheme-transcendent defender whose size might get in the way of some things, but last season, he allowed 41 catches on 66 targets for 511 yards, 286 yards after the catch, four touchdowns, six interceptions, four pass breakups, and an opponent passer rating of 68.4.
If you want to know how Phillips did against top competition, go turn on his game against USC’s Jordan Addison, who went 12th overall in this mock draft. Phillips didn’t shy away from anything, and he was just fine on the outside.
28. Cincinnati Bengals: Darnell Washington, TE, Georgia
At this point, the Bengals are pretty much safety-less after losing both Jessie Bates III and Vonn Bell in free agency, so Texas A&M’s Antonio Johnson or Boise State’s JL Skinner might be targets here. Or, the Bengals replace both Bates and Bell with current free agents — word is, they’re looking at two former Rams in Taylor Rapp and Nick Scott. Both would be great additions, so let’s turn to the offense, give Joe Burrow one more weapon, and show just how unfair the NFL can be. At 6-foot-7 and 264 pounds, Washington is the ultimate Planet Theory player at his position, and though he rumbles more than he scares defenders with his deep speed, putting him in that offense as a YAC threat and extra blocker in Cincinnati’s quick game? Like we said, unfair.
29. New Orleans Saints: Lukas Van Ness, DL, Iowa
Obviously, the Saints’ biggest move in free agency was the four-year, $150 million deal with $100 million guaranteed they gave to Derek Carr, which solves their problem at the game’s most important position. That’s the good news. The bad news is that they lost David Onyemata, Kaden Elliss, Marcus Davenport, and Shy Tuttle in free agency. Not optimal for defensive-minded head coach Dennis Allen, to have your front seven picked apart like that. The optimal solution here might be to get a guy who can disrupt from outside and inside, and Van Ness can do both. He’s not an ideal edge-rusher — more power than speed or bend — but last season for the Hawkeyes, he had nine sacks, six quarterback hits, and 31 quarterback hurries, and he picked those up everywhere from nose tackle to wide nine.
30. Philadelphia Eagles: Jahmyr Gibbs, RB, Alabama
The Eagles lost Miles Sanders to the Panthers in free agency, which takes a whole lot of production off the table, and Sanders proved last season that he was more than just a product of Philly’s QB run game and the NFL’s best offensive line. They signed ex-Seahawks back Rashaad Penny to make up the difference, and while Penny is a great back when he’s healthy, he hasn’t been healthy a lot.
I think that Alabama’s Jahmyr Gibbs would be a full-scale problem for enemy defenses in Philadelphia’s offense, given his ability to run with power and explosiveness, and to catch the ball all over the field. He’d be an estimable new piece in the Eagles’ new offense, now run by Brian Johnson. Last season, Gibbs gained 926 yards and scored seven touchdowns on just 151 carries, with 38 missed tackles forced, and 15 runs of 15 or more yards. He also gained 444 receiving yards and scored three touchdowns on 44 catches, and that was more than just swings and screens — Gibbs can run a scramble drill route from outside, and get the job done.
31. Kansas City Chiefs: Dalton Kincaid, TE, Utah
The Chiefs have already said that they project former Jaguars right tackle Jawaan Taylor, who they signed to a massive contract, has the tools to replace Orlando Brown Jr. on the left side. That leaves the right tackle spot undefined, but one could argue that it was undefined with Andrew Wylie (now with the Commanders) in 2022, as well.
So, let’s turn to the tight end position. Last season, only the Ravens had more two-tight end sets than Kansas City’s 220, and no team had more three-tight ends than Kansas City’s 63. This has become a functional construct of Andy Reid’s offense, and I would be fascinated to see how the Chiefs would deploy Kincaid, who caught 70 passes on 93 targets last season for 890 yards and eight touchdowns last season. Because when you watch Kincaid work through zones, make contested catches, and beat defenders up after the catch, it could easily be argued that he’s a potential carbon copy of Travis Kelce. You think Patrick Mahomes would enjoy throwing the football to two Travis Kelces? I do.