Israel and Hamas continue to engage in negotiations for a potential ceasefire and the release of Israeli hostages. Gershon Baskin, a former hostage negotiator, highlighted the challenge of predicting the outcome of such negotiations, as sudden changes in position by either side could alter the course of the discussions. Drawing on his experience with the release of Israeli soldier Gilad Shalit, Baskin emphasized that previous negotiations took several years to yield a ceasefire agreement. However, the current situation is urgent as Israel has expressed a potential plan for a ground offensive in Rafah, home to 1.5 million Palestinians. Such an offensive would have catastrophic consequences, prompting the need for all efforts to achieve a ceasefire.
Baskin noted that both Israel and Hamas appear reluctant to reach an agreement. Hamas has only used the hostages as a means to secure a pause in fighting and regroup. Meanwhile, the Israeli delegation was instructed not to present an initiative during negotiations, which Baskin described as a peculiar approach. It seems that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is more focused on continuing the war effort than on securing the release of the hostages.
Baskin also addressed the potential outcomes if a deal is struck and all Israeli hostages are released. While Hamas seeks to maintain control over Gaza, Israel finds it unacceptable to release prisoners regarded as dangerous to its security. The involvement of mediators, such as Egypt, Qatar, and the United States, demonstrates their strong desire for a deal. The breakthrough, according to Baskin, may lie in convincing Hamas to separate the different phases of the deal. This approach would involve implementing a 45-day ceasefire, releasing civilian hostages, and negotiating a diplomatic solution that includes ending the war and the voluntary exit of Hamas leadership from Gaza to a country like Qatar.
When discussing the timing of ongoing negotiations and the potential offensive in Rafah, Baskin suggested that both factors influence each other. The Israeli army is currently developing a plan for the evacuation of Palestinians from Rafah, but the logistics and the humanitarian implications of such an operation pose significant challenges. Baskin emphasized the need for caution to prevent potential massacres in Rafah.
The concerns raised by Baskin regarding the offensive mainly revolve around the extent of destruction in Gaza. While much of the territory has already been devastated, the Israeli government does not seem perturbed by the prospect of further destruction. It remains to be seen how these negotiations will progress and whether a resolution can be reached to prevent further escalation of violence.
