Portugal is bracing for its third snap general election in as many years as MPs debate a motion of confidence that looks set to topple the centre-right government and trigger a return to the polls in May.
Luís Montenegro, the prime minister, who heads the Democratic Alliance (AD) platform that has governed Portugal since its narrow victory in last year’s election, called the vote of confidence in response to growing questions over his family’s business activities.
Montenegro has denied any wrongdoing or ethical breaches and called the vote last week saying he wanted to “to end the atmosphere of permanent insinuations and intrigues”. It is all but certain to trigger a new general election as both the centre-left Socialist party (PS) and the far-right Chega party have said they will vote against the government.
Between them, the PS and Chega have 128 seats in Portugal’s 230 seat parliament, while the AD has 80.
If, as expected, Montenegro loses the vote, Portugal’s president, Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa, is likely to dissolve parliament, prompting a new election whose earliest dates would be 11 or 18 May.
As the debate began on Tuesday, Montenegro accused the socialists of siding with Chega. “Today’s vote will determine whether we go to elections and whether the Socialist Party will ally with the far right to bring down the government,” he told parliament.
At the centre of the allegations is Spinumviva, a data protection consultancy that Montenegro founded in 2021 but the ownership of which he transferred to his wife and sons the following year.
The opposition claims that Spinumviva’s contracts with private companies – including a casino and hotel business – have benefited Montenegro. It recently emerged that the firm is receiving monthly payments from a company that has a major gambling concession granted by the government.
While there is no active investigation under way into Spinumviva, prosecutors have said they are analysing “an anonymous complaint” against Montenegro linked to its dealings.
Portugal’s last general election, held a year ago, was triggered by the resignation in November 2023 of the socialist prime minister, António Costa, after an investigation was launched into alleged illegalities in his administration’s handling of large green investment projects.
Costa – who had been in office since 2015 and who won a surprise absolute majority in the 2022 general election – had not been accused of any crime. He said that while his conscience was clear, he felt he had no choice but to step down because the “duties of prime minister are not compatible with any suspicion of my integrity”.
The March 2024 election proved a close-run affair. The AD won 80 seats to the PS’s 78, while Chega – which is led by the former TV football pundit André Ventura – enjoyed a surge in support and increased its seat count from 12 to 50.
Surveys suggest a May election could produce a similar result. The AD is polling at about 30%, slightly ahead of the PS, with Chega third on 18%.
Reuters and the Associated Press contributed to this report.
