We are now closing this blog, thanks for following today’s developments with us.
Summary of the day
Portugal is preparing for an election on Sunday.
Polls suggest a close-run race for first place between the socialists and the centre-right for first place.
Chega, a far-right party, looks set to finish third.
José Manuel Fernandes, a member of the European parliament from the centre-right Social Democratic Party (PSD), told the Guardian that “the campaign demonstrates the success of the centre-right coalition in gaining the upper hand against the socialists.”
Pedro Magalhães, a political scientist a the Institute of Social Sciences at the University of Lisbon, said “the election takes place in a difficult context for the incumbent Socialists” and that “many Portuguese are still pondering what to do.”
He also said that “both the PS and AD are trying to make the case for strategic voting near potential supporters of smaller parties” and that “the issue of what happens in the absence of a majority for either the PS or AD — particularly whether a stable government is possible while keeping Chega out of any governing arrangement — dominates a lot of political commentary.”
Agnese Ortolani, principal economist at the Economist Intelligence Unit, has said that the outcome is “dependent on a large number of undecided voters” and that “we continue to believe that the most likely scenario is a right-wing coalition with the support of the far-right populist Chega.”
Polls suggest a close-run race for first place between the PS and the centre-right Social Democratic party (PSD), both of which are forecast to attract around 30% of the vote.
Chega – the far-right party led by pugnacious former football pundit André Ventura which became Portugal’s third largest party last time round – looks set to finish third with 18% of the vote. Meanwhile, the Left Bloc and the centre-right Liberal Initiative party are competing for fourth place with between 4% and 6% each.
Although the PSD’s leader, Luís Montenegro, has unambiguously ruled out any pacts with Chega, describing Ventura’s views as “often xenophobic, racist, populist and excessively demagogic”, he could find himself under huge pressure from voters and his own party if Sunday’s results offer the right a path back to power.
As people told me when I was in Portugal last week, many voters feel the time has come for a change after almost a decade of socialist rule. There is a palpable sense that António Costa’s government squandered its absolute majority and failed to properly address the housing crisis, improve public services – particularly health and education – or raise wages.
There is also a feeling among some that the two main parties of left and right, the PS and the PSD, are too stale and too tarnished by corruption scandals – hence the appeal of Chega, with its shouty promises to shake things up, tackle graft, and “clean up Portugal”.
A good showing by Chega would bring Portugal further into line with those European countries where dissatisfaction with traditional parties is driving the far-right vote.
We’ve received a note from Miguel Barreira, a member of the Liberal Initiative party, which has polling at around 5%.
More than Chega (or, as I call it, Ventura’s one-person Party), who it seems to be losing steam and radicalising its campaign in these last few days, my party will probably be key to allow PSD to form a working majority, without accepting any kind of talks or negotiating with the far-right Chega.
Well, time to get back to the campaign trail.
Agnese Ortolani, principal economist at the Economist Intelligence Unit, has said that when it comes to Portugal’s upcoming election the outcome is “dependent on a large number of undecided voters.”
We continue to believe that the most likely scenario is a right-wing coalition with the support of the far-right populist Chega. If the AD wins the most votes, there is a possibility that the PS will refrain from bringing down a centre-right minority government so as to keep Chega out of government.
This arrangement would in any case be likely to last only until the 2025 budget comes to a vote towards the end of this year. Another snap election in 2024 or early 2025 is therefore a risk.
What do the polls say?
All recent polls have put the parties in the same order: the centre-right Democratic Alliance is expected to get the most votes, followed by the Socialist party and the far-right Chega.
PSD leader Luís Montenegro has ruled out an alliance with Chega, our correspondent Sam Jones points out, noting that in a recent CNN interview Chega’s leader, André Ventura, says that “if there is a right-wing parliamentary majority, I have a total guarantee - I cannot reveal who - that there will be a right-wing government. With or without Montenegro.”
Portugal, Duplimétrica poll:
— Europe Elects (@EuropeElects) March 5, 2024
AD-EPP|ECR: 36% (+1)
PS-S&D: 27% (+1)
CH-ID: 16% (-1)
BE-LEFT: 6%
IL-RE: 5%
L-G/EFA: 4% (+1)
CDU-LEFT|G/EFA: 3%
PAN-G/EFA: 1%
+/- vs. 1-3 March 2024
Fieldwork: 2-4 March 2024
Sample size: 600
➤ https://t.co/cadjSzG0Zi pic.twitter.com/Q0OJDuXe0r
Key event
The European Commission president, Ursula von der Leyen, has given her support to proposals for controversial migration reforms which would involve deporting migrants to third counties for asylum processing and the imposition of a quota system for those getting protection in EU countries, according to Manfred Weber, the leader of the centre-right European People’s Party.
Weber said the policies were worked out with all the parties in the political group which includes von der Leyen’s Christian Democratic Union party in Germany along with the government parties in 10 countries including Greece, Poland, Ireland and Finland.
Asked if von der Leyen, who is expected to be coronated as the EPP’s candidate for European Commission president at their annual congress in Romania, backed these policies, he said:
“So all the programmatic positions of the European People’s Party are covered [supported] also by Ursula von der Leyen on the line, we do this as a team together.
“What European people expect from us and here the European People’s Party will be in the campaign crystal clear, you have to lower the numbers of arrivals. And we have to separate the visitors who are refugees and asylum seekers who should get the protection they need,” he told reporters in Bucharest.
The policy is being seen as a bid to head off the rise of the far right and extremist parties like the AfD in Germany which had considered policies to “remigrate” migrants including those with German passports.
Weber said the EU was being “tested” by populism and the centre-right group in the EU was the only group with the firepower to tackle migration at a bloc level, currently holding the presidency roles of the European Commission and the European Parliament.
“The far right wants to destroy Europe from the inside,” he warned.
'Considerable uncertainty' ahead of Sunday's vote as Socialists face 'difficult context', expert says
We asked Pedro Magalhães, a political scientist a the Institute of Social Sciences at the University of Lisbon, how Portugal’s campaign compares to previous elections.
“The election takes place in a difficult context for the incumbent Socialists,” he said in an email.
He added:
Although the economic situation has become relatively favourable — regarding GDP growth, unemployment, and the country’s budgetary health — government approval has declined steeply since the last election, from more than 60% to about 25%. This seems to be connected with the rising costs of living experienced in the last two years — especially in housing in metropolitan areas — and with faltering performance in public education and the NHS.
Magalhães also said that “the new Socialist leader who stepped in after Costa’s resignation, Pedro Nuno Santos, was strongly supported by party members, but the general public remains more sceptical, according to existing polls. And after all, the Socialists have been in power for eight years. Regardless of how governments perform, time in office almost always erodes approval.”
When it comes to the centre-right Aliança Democrática (AD), he said that while siupport for the alliance “has increased in this context of voter dissatisfaction, their growth as the main alternative to the Socialists is constrained by the rise of the radical right represented by Chega.”
He added:
Chega grew from 1.3% of the vote in the 2019 elections to 7.2% in 2022, and voting intention polls show them as poised to get at least 15% of the vote this time, perhaps even more.
Their core issue is corruption, which all surveys show to be something that almost all Portuguese voters perceive to be widespread among the political class, making Chega attractive as a vote of rejection of the political status quo.
They also cater to the most socially conservative segments of the electorate, particularly their opposition to what they call ‘gender ideology’ and their concerns with ‘deregulated immigration’ and law and order.
But he also stressed that many voters are still undecided and much remains uncertain, noting that “about one out of every five poll respondents claims to be undecided about what to do this Sunday, and even among those who declare a voting intention, a sizeable minority states they ‘can still change’”.
Both the PS and AD are trying to make the case for strategic voting near potential supporters of smaller parties. The issue of what happens in the absence of a majority for either the PS or AD — particularly whether a stable government is possible while keeping Chega out of any governing arrangement — dominates a lot of political commentary.
No wonder so many Portuguese are still pondering what to do.
In post-electoral surveys conducted after the 2022 election, about 15% of those who voted claimed to have reached their final decision on the very day of the election. The possibility of something similar happening again forces the acknowledgement of considerable uncertainty.
The right has no fixes for Portugal’s problems, says Left Bloc leader
A victory for the right in the Portuguese general election this week could reverse the social advances of the past few years and herald a return to the “moral, theoretical and political bankruptcy” that followed the 2008 financial crisis, the leader of the small Left Bloc party has said.
Speaking to the Guardian as Portugal prepared to go to the polls on Sunday in a snap election triggered by the collapse in November of António Costa’s socialist government, Mariana Mortágua said rightwing and far-right parties did not have viable solutions to the country’s housing, healthcare and wage crises.
She also suggested hard-won social rights could be threatened, pointing out that a senior member of one of the parties that makes up the centre-right Democratic Alliance coalition had floated the idea of a new referendum on abortion, almost two decades after Portugal overturned one of Europe’s most restrictive laws.
“Today, the big news is that one of the rightwing candidates wants to have a referendum to ban free abortion in Portugal, which is something we won 17 years ago,” said Mortágua. “All that is at stake right now.”
The Democratic Alliance moved swiftly to distance itself from the idea of a new abortion referendum, but Mortágua said the coalition, led by the Social Democratic party (PSD), could not be allowed back into power because of the painful and destructive austerity policies it had inflicted on Portugal at the behest of the European Commission, the European Central Bank and the International Monetary Fund.
“After the troika intervention and all the rightwing policies – not only here – the right entered a period of moral, theoretical and political bankruptcy,” she said.
Read the full interview here.
Here are the latest images from the campaign trail in Portugal, ahead of Sunday’s election.
Economic strength and competitiveness are primary issues for Portugal, centre-right politician says
We asked Portuguese politicians how they see the campaign, days before voters go to the polls.
“The campaign demonstrates the success of the centre-right coalition in gaining the upper hand against the socialists,” said José Manuel Fernandes, a member of the European parliament from the Social Democratic Party (PSD).
Ahead of the election, the PSD linked up with the small conservative CDS-PP party to form Aliança Democratica (AD).
Fernandes argued that “the coalition’s tax reduction strategy to enhance wages has received positive feedback from the Portuguese electorate” and that “the alliance has distinctly identified the primary issues facing Portugal today: economic strength and competitiveness.”
He described policy priorities for the campaign:
Portugal needs an economy that is stronger, more resilient, and more competitive. Such an economy should empower private initiatives to contribute significantly.
Effective public services: It is unacceptable for citizens to endure high taxes and hard work without receiving adequate public services in return.
Portuguese national health system fails to meet the citizens’ needs, indicating a clear gap in service delivery.
Youth policies: The current state of losing a highly talented generation of young Portuguese due to insufficient working conditions and unfair wages cannot continue. Our party is committed to reversing this trend through visionary and ambitious policies that offer both.
Valuing the elderly: We must uphold generational solidarity by appreciating and supporting our elderly population. This approach is beneficial and essential for societal cohesion and mutual respect across generations.
Portugal election: who are the key players?
Voters in Portugal go to the polls on Sunday.
Portugal’s prime minister, António Costa, who won an unexpected third consecutive term in January 2022, resigned last November amid an investigation into alleged illegalities in his government’s handling of large green investment projects.
Costa was succeeded in December as head of the ruling Socialist party (PS) by the head of the party’s left wing, Pedro Nuno Santos.
A former infrastructure minister, Nuno Santos, 46, was a vital link to far-left parties that had supported a previous Costa minority government but which opposed the 2022 state budget, triggering the last general election.
He resigned his ministerial post in late 2022 in a scandal involving a €500,000 severance payment by Portugal’s state-owned airline TAP, which was in the middle of a restructuring plan.
The leader of the rival centre-right Social Democratic party (PSD), Luís Montenegro, 51, led its parliamentary group when the party was in government between 2011 and 2015 and imposed severe austerity measures.
An MP for more than 20 years, his refusal to entertain an alliance with the far right led him to break with the prime minister of that period, Pedro Passos Coelho. He was elected head of the PSD in May 2022 at his second attempt.
André Ventura, 41, is a former television sports commentator who initially entered politics in the ranks of the PSD and first grabbed the nation’s attention when as a candidate for mayor in a town outside Lisbon he denounced the Roma community.
He left PSD to launch Chega (Enough) in 2019 and has since propounded a populist, anti-establishment message that has found a fast-growing audience. Chega scored 1.3% of votes in 2019’s election and 7.3% in 2022, when it finished third.
Political opponents accuse Chega of frequently resorting to xenophobia, racism and demagoguery. Ventura says his party “touches on issues that interest people”.
Read the full explainer here.
Welcome to the blog
Good morning and welcome back to the Europe blog.
Today we will be taking a look at the latest in Portugal’s election campaign.
Send thoughts and tips to lili.bayer@theguardian.com.
