The likelihood of Port Adelaide's clash with Hawthorn being incident-free is in the same neighbourhood as the AFL refunding Ken Hinkley his $20,000 fine.
In other words, those chances look to be nil.
The AFL may well be guilty of hypocrisy, by sanctioning Hinkley for his taunting of Jack Ginnivan and then making the Power-Hawks re-match the feature game of Gather Round.
But it's also a marketing no-brainer.
Even as last year's epic Adelaide Oval semi-final was ending - and probably around the same time that Hawks captain James Sicily was looking daggers at Hinkley - SA Premier Peter Malinauskas and AFL chief executive Andrew Dillon were discussing the 2025 Gather Round schedule.
And they quickly agreed it had to feature this re-match as the centrepiece.
Ginnivan, always the provocative small forward, had posted on social media before the semi-final he would see Sydney ruckman Brodie Grundy "in 14 days", meaning the preliminary final.
Immediately after Port's three-point win, there was drama on the field as Hinkley gestured to Ginnivan he was flying nowhere.
Sicily, the Hawks captain and a player notorious for his white-line fever, then let Hinkley know his thoughts and for a brief moment it looked like tempers might boil over.
Hinkley quickly apologised in the Port rooms and Hawks coach Sam Mitchell strongly defended Ginnivan at his post-game media conference.
And here we are.
Hawthorn, clearly, will start favourites even without star midfielder Will Day, who is injured again.
They have kicked on from last year's barnstorming run and are unbeaten after four games.
Port, by contrast, are spluttering and lost last week despite Essendon kicking a wasteful 9.18.
Few people know more about hype than AFL commentator Nathan Buckley given his extensive Collingwood history, and he summed up the scenario neatly.
"The only way they (Hawthorn) lose is if they get caught up in all that other 'b......t," he said this week at a Gather Round function.
If - and privately Port people concede it's a big "if" - their gun midfielders Zak Butters, Connor Rozee and Jason Horne-Francis all fire together, then they're a chance.
It's more likely that whatever drama happens, especially early in the game, Butters will be in the thick of it.
Put simply, too much has to go right for Port Adelaide.
But they will not die wondering given the obvious motivations and the Power are well-known for rising to the occasion in the Adelaide Oval cauldron.
As Buckley notes it is a matter of how well Sicily, Ginnivan and their teammates deal with the occcasion.
Whatever happens the AFL are on a winner that is worth far more than Hinkley's $20,000 fine.
