Populist and nationalist parties fighting the European elections in June are deeply divided on almost all key issues, according to a survey, in a finding that questions their chances of defining the bloc’s agenda even in the event of a predicted far-right surge.
However, the report, by the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR), also said pro-EU parties risked mobilising the Eurosceptic vote if they continued to ape hard-right policies rather than coming up with persuasive alternatives.
“Simply copying far-right policies can make mainstream parties look inauthentic,” said the report’s co-author Mark Leonard. “The better alternative is to focus on the weaknesses of Eurosceptic parties and make a geopolitical case for Europe in the time of Trump.”
ECFR polling published last month suggested populist, nationalist and far-right parties were on track to finish first in nine EU states – including Austria, France, Italy, the Netherlands and Poland – in the June elections, and second or third in nine more.
Pro-European mainstream parties in the parliament’s three big centre-right, centre-left and liberal groups could still end up in a much better position than many expect – and even with a workable majority – because of disunity in the anti-EU camp.
Supporters of nationalist parties are divided on issues as central as their country’s continuing membership of the EU, migration and support for Ukraine, the polling showed, while the parties themselves are on radically different trajectories.
Brothers of Italy, for example, was previously seen as a radical post-fascist party, the report’s authors noted, but since its leader, Giorgia Meloni, became prime minister last year it has come to be considered “rather mainstream” by many in Europe.
Poland’s Law and Justice (PiS), on the other hand, has evolved from a conservative, Euro-critical party allied with Britain’s Conservatives to a fiercely anti-European force, particularly on rule of law issues such as judicial and media independence.
The polling, of more than 17,000 people in 12 EU member states representing more than 70% of the seats in the European parliament, found voter perceptions of what far-right parties really wanted to achieve varied considerably.
In only four member states – Austria (58%), Germany (55%), the Netherlands (63%) and Sweden (59%) – does the electorate as a whole believe that the leader of the main far-right party in their country aims ultimately to take it out of the EU.
Few Brothers of Italy voters (15%) and few Italian voters in general (17%) felt this was Meloni’s aim – so mainstream parties in Italy, but also in Spain and Portugal, where scores were similar, will struggle to portray a far-right surge as a danger for the EU.
However, while only 21% of PiS voters thought “Polexit” was the party’s objective, 52% of the broader electorate did – giving pro-European forces a chance to mobilise mainstream voters against the threat PiS could pose to Poland’s EU membership.
Far-right voters were split on several other major issues. On EU support for Ukraine, PiS (58%) and Sweden Democrat (52%) voters were supportive, with backers of Portugal’s Chega (42%) and Spain’s Vox (35%) also moderately in favour.
However, voters for Hungary’s Fidesz (88%), Austria’s Freedom party (FPO, 70%), and Germany’s AfD (69%) were opposed to helping Ukraine recover lost territory, instead believing Europe should push Kyiv towards a negotiated settlement with Russia.
On migration, voters for the Dutch PVV (81%), FPO (72%), Sweden Democrats (60%), AfD and France’s RN (both 59%) were concerned most by immigration; for Brothers of Italy (54%), Spain’s Vox (53%), Chega (56%), and Fidesz (54%) it was emigration.
For the broader electorate, immigration was the leading concern only in Germany and Austria. Across all 12 countries, barely 15% saw it as the greatest crisis of the past 10 years, behind the economy, Covid, climate change and the war in Ukraine.
The survey showed voters were more interested in what they perceived as politicians’ motivations than in their policies, the report said, warning leaders “not to focus too much on policy while appearing removed from voters’ core concerns”.
Large numbers of Europeans – including many mainstream voters – believed pro-EU leaders are bent on boosting immigration (45%), increasing energy prices to combat climate change (43%) and transferring more national powers to Brussels (33%).
The report identified two key strategies of pro-European parties – copying far-right policies, notably on migration, and highlighting the EU’s record on Russia’s war on Ukraine, the climate crisis, and Covid – but said both risked backfiring.
Many voters do not recognise the bloc’s success in addressing these challenges, the polling showed: on the pandemic, for example, only in Portugal (56%) and Spain (42%) did large numbers of voters see the EU as having played a positive role.
Voters in many countries are also deeply divided over the EU’s climate policies, with 41% across the 12 countries favouring the pursuit of climate policies even if it means higher fuel bills, but 25% preferring stable bills even if it means missing green targets.
Rather than adopting far-right policies, the polling showed mainstream parties should pursue “polarising” tactics to mobilise the pro-EU vote, especially in countries such as Austria, France, Germany and Poland, where 20% or more of voters believed far-right parties wanted ultimately to leave the EU, the authors concluded.
And rather than vaunting the European Commission’s record, they should make the case for a stronger, more defence-minded Europe to counter further Russian aggression and the threat of Donald Trump’s return to power in the US.
