The government’s latest U.S. population estimates portend significant shifts in congressional seats away from Democratic-leaning states by the end of the decade if current trends continue.
Several states, including California and New York, lost seats in Congress following the 2020 Census as part of the process known as reapportionment, which adjusts congressional representation every 10 years based on updated Census figures. The latest estimates, released by the Census Bureau last month, show that the shift would have been even bigger had the changes been based on 2021 population data.
Arizona, Florida, Idaho and Texas would have each gained an additional seat in the House of Representatives, according to the latest estimates, while California, Illinois, Minnesota and New York would each have lost a seat, according to the research conducted by Election Data Services, a political consulting firm that specializes in redistricting, and the analysis of census and political data.
The estimates suggest population shifts exacerbated by the pandemic may have more lasting effects in congressional representation than many expect.
“This has a potential of being a bigger story because it’s a lot more change than what people are thinking there is,” said Kimball Brace, the president of Election Data Services.
The population movement does not bode well for states like California or New York, says Brace, though he cautioned against reading too much into what the latest changes will mean for the make-up of Congress a decade from now.
“Data at the beginning of the decade are notoriously bad at projecting forward,” he said. But, “it’ll be interesting to see what takes place over the remaining part of the decade.”
According to Election Data Services, Florida would have held even more congressional power, with its representation increasing to 29 seats, if the last congressional apportionment used the latest data. Arizona and Idaho would have gained a seat. And the Texas delegation, which picked up two seats following the last Census count, would have grown to 39.
The number of seats in the U.S. House of Representatives is capped at 435, so as some states gain power others will lose congressional representation. California lost a seat last year — the first since it achieved statehood in 1849 — and would have lost another using the latest data.
