With a young, diverse and fast-growing population, Western Sydney has been an attractive place for businesses to make a start.
For Lissa Todini, who's been running her wholesale patisserie for two decades, a drying-up of migration through the pandemic has made finding trained staff more difficult.
"We do rely on immigration and skilled workers," she said.
"There is a shortage of pastry cooks in Australia, so it is a bit of a challenge."
She's keen to continue expanding her business and sees opportunities in the development of Sydney's third city centre, Bradfield.
But lower than expected population growth could be an obstacle.
"We were looking forward to quite a boom," she said.
"In order to be able to meet those demands, clearly we will need to employ more people.
Newly-released data has revealed that Western Sydney's population growth forecasts have been slashed due to COVID-19 border closures, with the area set to attract half a million fewer people than projected over the next 20 years.
The data was compiled for the Western Sydney Leadership Dialogue (WSLD), a not-for-profit think tank aimed at highlighting Sydney's western suburbs.
"With a slow decline in those population numbers, you can expect to see a slow decline in jobs growth in the region," Executive Director of WSLD, Adam Leto, said.
"What we'd like to see is the federal government, through its immigration policy, return to immigration levels pre-COVID as a starting point."
More than 50 per cent of overseas-born Sydneysiders live in the city's west.
Rhonda Itaoui, a postdoctoral research fellow in urban studies at Western Sydney University, said migrants not only contributed to the cultural fabric of the west but also influenced crucial economic and city planning strategies.
"We are home to a significant proportion of skilled and talented workers who travel out to different parts of Sydney and are engaged in employment across a range of industries," Dr Itaoui said.
Parramatta, a key area for development and infrastructure investment, saw over 90,000 international arrivals between 2006 and 2015, according to the last Census.
It currently has a population of 503,000 but the stall in migration could put future growth plans in doubt.
The data suggests that by 2041, Parramatta's population will have grown to 629,000, as opposed to the 753,000 previously forecast.
"If COVID-19 has taught us anything, it is that trends shaping population growth are shaped by a wide range of external, and unpredictable forces that multiple levels of government must adapt and respond to," Dr Itaoui said.
Near Ms Todini's business in Sydney's south-west, the long-term impact of the migration slump is more stark.
Liverpool was expected to see an additional 332,000 people move into the area in the next 20 years, but post-COVID that has now been revised down by 42 per cent, with 140,000 fewer new arrivals expected.
Liverpool Mayor Ned Mannoun said the focus should be on liveability rather than population growth.
"We're screaming for activities and things to do," Mr Mannoun said.
"Affordability is not just the price you pay for your house but about having the surrounding infrastructure to build a great community.
Mr Leto said the pandemic had provided a "breather" for the federal and state governments to catch-up on infrastructure.
"For the last 10 to 15 years population has outpaced infrastructure investment, but that's starting to sort of recalibrate now," Mr Leto said.
"It will provide an opportunity to reset the economy in the region and move towards one that's focused on innovation, enterprise, new technologies and new industries."
