With the U.S. election just days away, several mysterious whales have popped up on the blockchain prediction market Polymarket. They're placing bets that are swaying the betting odds on the Donald Trump and Kamala Harris race.
Donald Trump currently has a 67% chance to win the election on the non-scientific platform.
That is just four more percentage points away from breaking his highs hit just before Joe Biden dropped out of the race. Here's who the whales are betting on to win this election season.
The Whale Making Waves on Polymarket
Trump's odds on platforms like Polymarket have shot up thanks to the enigmatic whale "zxgngl." This deep-pocketed player has poured more than $7.5 million in USDC into bets backing Trump, shaking up the market landscape and sparking widespread intrigue.
Lookonchain, an on-chain intelligence firm, noted this week, "Since Oct 11, the whale has spent 7.22 million $USDC to buy 11.28 million 'Yes' shares on Donald Trump winning the US election."
Decentralized prediction markets like Polymarket and Polkamarket offer a unique glimpse into the collective sentiment of investors.
Billionaire Elon Musk has claimed there is potential for these markets to offer realistic predictions, as they aggregate data from diverse participants, each placing financial stakes in the outcomes.
Implications for Prediction Markets
Polymarket has shot to the top as the go-to hub for political odds, with Trump's chances taking a dramatic turn upward at the start of October. The platform's trading volume has skyrocketed, fueled by U.S. election predictions that spiked prediction market activity by 565% in just the third quarter. This surge highlights an ever-growing trust in blockchain tech to read the political pulse.
This will be the first election where a blockchain-based prediction market can be tested for accuracy or simply being manipulated.
As these platforms gain traction, they could eventually upend an understanding of political forecasting, presenting a decentralized take that rivals the old-school polls.
