KEY POINTS
- Polymarket bettors have Kamala's odds down to 21.3%, while Trump's chances soared above 78%
- Some crypto users believe Polymarket data isn't accurate and is merely 'reactionary'
- Polls before election day showed that the presidential race is much tighter
Polymarket was one of the top political trends on X Tuesday night as Donald Trump's chances of winning the presidential election skyrocketed to a new all-time high.
Data from the decentralized market prediction platform revealed that as of late Tuesday, cryptocurrency bettors drove the GOP frontrunner's odds of winning to 78.6% and are still climbing. Just a day ago, the business mogul's chances were at 56.1%.
Harris's Odds Plummet
While Vice President Kamala Harris is still in the race, Polymarket bettors have her chances only at 21.3%, significantly down from Monday, when her odds jumped to 44%.
Trump continues to close in on the Presidency. pic.twitter.com/CYkg9OCCG9
— Polymarket (@Polymarket) November 6, 2024
Despite her chances down on Polymarket's presidential winner event contract, she remains the favorite in the Popular Vote Winner event contract, leading Trump by 20%.
In the critical swing state battle, Harris is behind on all battleground states, with her chances of winning Arizona at an all-time low of 8% while her Republican foe's odds are at 92%.
How Accurate is Polymarket?
Many crypto users worldwide have been referring to Polymarket data in recent months, but prominent trader EllioTrades asked the crucial question on the platform's accuracy.
The real question is how accurate is Polymarket
— EllioTrades (@elliotrades) November 6, 2024
One user said the popular betting platform "doesn't reflect the true market," while another pointed out that Polymarket is "not at all accurate" and is only "reactionary."
Most crypto users on X said it's impossible to know just how accurate Polymarket figures are, while others said the platform's data doesn't matter at all. "As long as their application goes mainstream and attracts more people to use web3 services, we all win," one user said.
Latest Polls Sing a Different Tune
Meanwhile, the numbers are very different in polls before election day, suggesting that the race may be much closer than what betting platform data reflects.
For instance, an AtlasIntel poll from Nov. 3-4 showed that Trump is ahead of Harris by only 1%. In another Pennsylvania-centric poll dated Nov. 1-4, Trump is even behind his Democratic foe by 2%.
Other Key Races on Polymarket
Aside from the presidential election event contract, there are also major races on Polymarket that have reached multi-million-dollar bets.
- Balance of Power ($68.2 million bet): Bettors have it 67% for Republicans commanding a sweep
- Presidency + Popular Vote ($76.3 million bet): Bettors have it 49% for GOP to win both, while they have Democrats' odds at 13%
- Ohio Senate Election Winner ($15.4 million bet): Bettors believe a Republican will take the seat (89%)
It remains to be seen how the elections will turn out and whether cryptobettors will have their money's worth when the official vote counting process ends.
