A top pollster has retracted his claims that YouGov had been 'blocked' from releasing a poll during the 2017 General Election campaign because it was "too positive about Labour ".
Chris Curtis, who is now head of political polling at Opinium, initially said on Wednesday Nadhim Zahawi had threatened the CEO of YouGov and would "call for his resignation" if the pollsters predictions of a hung parliament were wrong.
Mr Zahawi swiftly dismissed the threats, claiming it was "clearly a joke between two good friends" who had worked as business partners for some time.
Mr Curtis later rowed back, insisting he did not intent to say Mr Zahawi "had played any role" in YouGov's decisions to pull the polls in the run up to the election, and clarified his initial Twitter thread.
He said: "While this was not my view at the time, I now accept YouGov's position that in fact the results were pulled because of concerns other members of the team had about the methodology.
"I also believe then, as I do now, that the methodology was acceptable and the survey was conducted to the highest standard. Just like YouGov, I would not be willing to put my name to any research that did not meet these standards.
"Also, as I later sought to make clear I did not intend to allege that Nadhim Zahawi played any role in this decision. I am happy to clarify the position and apologise to YouGov for any confusion caused."
The Education Secretary co-founded YouGov in 2000 alongside the fellow Conservative Stephan Shakespeare who used to work for Jeffrey Archer.
In a long Twitter thread, Mr Curtis initially claimed a poll after a leadership debate showed Jeremy Corbyn had won "by a country mile" but YouGov changed its methodology to favour Conservatives, after facing pressure.
"We did a fantastic debate poll in the hours following the debate that Corbyn took part in. The results were stark - Corbyn won by a country mile, and one in four Tory voters thought he was best.
"But despite having written the story and designed the charts, we were banned from releasing the story because it was too positive about Labour."
YouGov correctly predicted the 2017 general election result using an MRP model (also known as multilevel regression and post-stratification).
MRP forecasts allows pollsters to predict local results from national surveys.
YouGov's MRP poll suggested the general election would result in a hung Parliament, Mr Curtis said.
At the time, MRP was seen as "experimental methodology" which was largely dismissed but not by senior Conservatives.
"Nadhim Zahawi called up the CEO and said he would call for his resignation if he was wrong.
"It became pretty clear we would all be out of a job if we were wrong now," Mr Curtis said.
YouGov released a statement dismissing his claims. A spokesperson told the Mirror: "Chris Curtis’s allegation that we suppressed a poll because the results were 'too positive about Labour' is incorrect.
"There was a poll run by Chris following the debate in Cambridge on 31st May 2017. When reviewed by others in the YouGov political team, it was clear that the sample of people who watched the debate significantly over-represented Labour voters from the previous election.
"We take our responsibilities as a research organisation seriously and we could not have published a poll from a skewed sample that favoured any party. No serious polling organisation would have published this.
"The idea that YouGov would suppress a poll that was 'too positive about Labour' is plainly wrong – as evidenced by the fact that in the 2017 election YouGov published an MRP model showing Labour doing significantly better compared to most other polling organisations."
In a tweet, Mr Zahawi said: “This was clearly a joke between two good friends, who had previously been business partners for several years.
“Stephan continues to be one of my closest friends and at no point since leaving YouGov in 2010 have I had any influence on the company. Suggesting otherwise is untrue.”
Jeremy Corbyn won 30 more seats for the Labour party in the 2017 General Election than Ed Miliband in 2015.
Mr Corbyn's seat as Labour leader was firmly secured, despite losing to the Conservative Party in the 2017 elections because he had far exceeded expectations.
Responding to YouGov's statement, Mr Curtis said on Twitter: "Given people are asking, I’m not saying that Nadhim directly had a hand in YouGov changing its results to suit [Tory] ends (as some have interpreted) but pointing to the general sense of panic YouGov had at the time which led to certain decisions."
