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The National (Scotland)
The National (Scotland)
National
Adam Robertson

Polling shows 'no electoral impact' on SNP after Nicola Sturgeon's resignation

A NEW poll has shown "no electoral impact" on the SNP following Nicola Sturgeon's resignation. 

Research conducted by Survation shows the SNP would lead the way in Scotland in both a Westminster and Holyrood election.

The poll took in the views of 1034 people living in Scotland aged 16 and above and was conducted between February 15 and 17.

Westminster Intention

In terms of the next General Election, at a 43% vote share the SNP would be just 2% shy of their showing in Westminster in 2019, when the party won 48 seats.

If the type of polling used was reflected in individual seats at the next Westminster election, it would see the SNP take every Conservative and LibDem-held seat, leaving those parties with zero MPs in Scotland.

Labour, meanwhile, would end up with 30% of the Scottish vote while the Conservatives would hold 17%.

The results showed that 19% of 2019 Tory voters said they would now vote Labour.

Another 6% of people said they would vote LibDem while 3% said they would choose another party.

Holyrood Intention

The SNP also led the way when people were asked their voting intention at the next Holyrood election.

Results showed the SNP would hold 43% of the Holyrood constituency vote share – 4.7% less than their performance at the 2021 election but still comfortably in first position.

Labour also showed improvement, holding 29% of the vote – a 7.1% increase over their tally in 2021.

It was bad news for the Conservatives though who held just 17% of the vote which marked a 4.9% decrease from their last Holyrood showing, putting them a long way off being Scotland’s second place party.

When it came to the list voting intention, the Scottish Greens held 8% of the vote while the SNP held 35%.

Why do the polls seem unmoved by Sturgeon’s resignation?

According to Survation, SNP voters are not going to “desert the party” over the First Minister’s resignation.

“It is entirely possible the SNP’s loyal voter base are really not voting for the party based on the leader to any meaningful extent”, the website read.

The polling also asked people what they thought of the potential candidates to replace Nicola Sturgeon and whether they would do a “good” or “bad” job.

According to Survation, looking to the 48% of Scots who voted for the SNP at the 2021 election, results showed that Kate Forbes scored +38% based on a good job-bad job question while Angus Robertson also rated highly with a +31% score.

Humza Yousaf, meanwhile, who along with Ash Regan has declared his intention to stand for SNP leader, scored just +3%.

John Swinney, who has already ruled himself out of the race, scored +17%.

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