SNP voters think a plan for tackling the cost of living crisis is more important than a de facto referendum and place gender recognition reform last on a list of priorities for the party’s new leader, according to a new poll.
A survey published by the BIG Partnership made headlines with the finding that Kate Forbes is an early frontrunner in the leadership race with 28% of SNP supporters backing her, compared to Humza Yousaf at 20% and Ash Regan at 7%. Nearly a third of supporters – 31% – are undecided so far.
But the in-depth poll, carried out in the first half of last week, has also provided a series of insights into what the party’s voters think on a range of issues – from the timing of an independence referendum to flagship Scottish Government policies.
When it comes to the leadership race, while Forbes was leading overall, her rival Yousaf was in front among 18 to 24-year-olds, with 24% backing him compared to 20% for Forbes.
The third contender, Regan, won the highest level of support for her campaign from this age group, compared to the other age groups backing her – at 14%.
A breakdown by different areas of Scotland shows Forbes – who is the MSP for Skye, Lochaber and Badenoch – recorded most support in the Highlands and Islands, with 42% compared to 10% for Yousaf and 6% for Regan.
However, she also managed to retain a narrow lead ahead of Yousaf, the MSP for Glasgow Pollok, in his home patch, at 30% compared to 29%.
When it comes to the views and characteristics of the candidates, a plan to tackle the cost of living crisis was seen as a top priority by 58% of SNP voters.
Next on the list with 53% of backers was improving health, education and other public services, as well as growing Scotland’s economy.
On the issue of independence, 30% said the new leader would need to have a convincing plan to deliver a referendum, while 28% wanted them to support a de facto referendum and opening negotiations with the UK Government if the SNP wins more than half the vote in an election.
Three-quarters of SNP voters said they wanted a referendum within five years. The most popular timing for that to happen was one to two years – backed by 29% of voters – while 16% said it should happen in three to six months and 15% thought it should take place in three to five years. Meanwhile, 10% said they do not support a referendum at all.
The poll found SNP supporters thought the most important issues for the new SNP leader and first minister would be the cost of living crisis and the NHS and health – while last on this list were transport and infrastructure and gender recognition and trans rights.
When it comes to flagship policies of Nicola Sturgeon’s era, a majority of the SNP voters surveyed backed no new oil and gas exploration in the North Sea, no nuclear power stations in Scotland, the deposit return scheme and the National Care service.
However, proposals to ban alcohol advertising in sports, events and festivals were backed by just 29% – with 42% disagreeing, There was a split in opinion on gender recognition reform legislation, which was passed by Holyrood before being blocked by the UK Government.
A third said they backed it, while a third did not – and 30% said they neither agreed nor disagreed.
The poll, carried out by Opinion Matters, surveyed around 1000 Scottish adults who voted SNP at the 2021 Holyrood election.
Paul Robertson, head of public affairs at the BIG Partnership, told the Sunday National that some had viewed the findings over how the new leader should prioritise independence as suggesting this issue was not important to SNP voters.
But he said: “If you take the poll as a whole, it is important, three-quarters want to see a referendum in quite a short time.
“Five years takes us just into the next Scottish Parliament term, so there is clearly a desire from SNP supporters to see a referendum – but what it is telling me is first and foremost, they want to see a Scottish Government stable and competent on the big issues of the day, and they clearly want the right plan on independence.”
He added: “The other clear theme of the poll is the priorities of SNP voters aren’t reflected in the leadership contest so far. That is both on the issues that are being discussed and on independence.
“It’s only been a week – we will get to those issues, but I think it is a note of caution as the campaigns are having a go at each other around social issues.
“It’s a note of caution that, actually, SNP voters want to see grown-up debate and quite a detailed debate on policy, on the matters of government and on how you are going to get to independence.
“There is a risk that if the campaigns continue to focus on weakening each other’s campaigns, they are not speaking to the priorities of the people who actually vote for the party.”
Robertson also pointed to the poll’s findings that SNP voters are not always supportive of some of the key policies introduced by the SNP and Greens government.
He said: “A candidate who represents change on some of these policies does have support they can speak to and would appeal to a section of SNP membership – because actually, the membership are quite split on some of these policies.”
