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Wales Online

National

Ruth Mosalski

Poll says Conservative Party would lose all its Welsh MPs in General Election

Downing Street (Organization) Wales

Welsh Conservative MPs would be wiped out in a Westminster election, a new poll has suggested.

If an election were held now, Labour would be projected to take 352 seats, a gain of 150 and giving a majority of 14. The Conservatives would lose all six of their seats in Scotland and all 14 in Wales.

Support for the party has dropped to 2005 levels in the wake of the scandal over Downing Street parties.

The JL Partners poll, published in The Sunday Times, was of 4,500 people and the seat projection was conducted by James Johnson, Theresa May’s former pollster. It put Labour on 45% of the vote, 13 points ahead of the Conservatives on 32%, with the Lib Dems on 11% — enough to win 16 seats, five more than last time.

It would mean Boris Johnson would lose his seat along with 10 cabinet members; Ben Wallace, the defence secretary, George Eustice, Grant Shapps, Alok Sharma, Anne-Marie Trevelyan, Welsh secretary Simon Hart, Alister Jack and Simon Clarke.

The model predicts that Dominic Raab, the deputy prime minister, would just hold on in Esher and Walton.

A map projects the results of the poll (The Sunday Times)

MRP stands for multi-level regression and post-stratification. It is a national poll which allows the prediction of local results from national surveys, using census data, such as the age and income distribution of voters in that area, and puts that into the model with the national survey data.

In the 2017 General Election MRP was used for a YouGov poll which was incredibly reliable. In the 2019 election the equivalent poll projected the Conservatives would win 339 seats (up 22) and Labour would lose 31 (giving them a total of 231). The Conservatives actually gained 47, taking the party to a total of 365, while Labour lost 59, giving a total of 203.

The Conservatives won 14 seats in Wales in the 2019 General Election, but only 13 of those elected currently sit as Conservatives. Rob Roberts, who represents Delyn, is now an independent. That was a gain of seven seats compared to the previous election and the party's best result in Wales since 1983.

The party held Aberconwy (Robin Millar MP); gained Brecon and Radnorshire (Fay Jones MP); gained Bridgend (Jamie Wallis MP); held Carmarthen West and south Pembrokeshire (Simon Hart MP); gained Clwyd South (Simon Baynes MP); held Clwyd West (David Jones MP); gained Delyn (Rob Roberts MP - now independent); held Monmouth (David Davies MP); held Montgomeryshire (Craig Williams MP); held Preseli Pembrokeshire (Stephen Crabb MP); gained Vale of Clwyd (James Davies MP); held Vale of Glamorgan (Alun Cairns MP); gained Wrexham (Sarah Atherton MP); gained Ynys Mon (Virginia Crosbie MP). You can see all the results from those elections here.

While some of those were marginal gains in 2019, others are safe Conservative seats. For instance, in Montgomeryshire, the party had a majority of 12,138 (35.4%) and the seat is projected to go to Labour, who came third with just 16% of the vote share in 2019, behind the Lib Dem candidate with 23% and winner Craig Williams who had 58.5%.

In Monmouth, David Davies had a majority of 9,982 votes with 52% of the vote. Labour's candidate got 32% of the vote.