ORLANDO, Fla. – Republican Marco Rubio has a 7-point lead over Democratic challenger Val Demings, according to a poll released Wednesday.
The Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy survey also shows President Joe Biden with a 55% disapproval rating in Florida and 40% approval.
U.S. Sen. Rubio had a 49% to 42% advantage over U.S. Rep. Demings, D-Orlando, according to the poll, with 9% undecided.
Demings trailed Rubio in every region except heavily Democratic Southeast Florida.
Still, said pollster Brad Coker in his analysis, “an incumbent running below 50% often leaves the door open for a challenger to significantly tighten a race under the right circumstances.”
Coker wrote that voters seem to be dug in along party lines.
“The key for Demings to pull off an upset will be the ability to attract more unaffiliated voters,” Coker wrote.
Currently, independents are backing Rubio by 10 points, 47% to 37%.
Rubio also had a 27-point recognition advantage, with 95% of voters saying they’re familiar with him compared to 68% familiar with Demings.
That gap, Coker wrote, “will naturally shrink by the later stages of the race. As that gap closes, independent voters must swing to Demings. As the campaign progresses, that will be the trend to watch for. Absent that shift, Rubio will be re-elected.”
Demings also has to hope for Biden’s approval numbers to get better, Coker wrote.
“Biden’s low job rating with Florida voters – particularly his weak showing among independents – is likely going to have a larger impact,” he wrote.
Among independents, 33% approve of Biden while 61% disapprove.
“It will be difficult for her to make the necessary gains among those who are unaffiliated as long as they remain hostile to the president,” Coker wrote.
The poll was of 625 registered Florida voters between Feb. 7 and 10. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.
