Thousands of policing jobs could be lost as a result of Scottish Government spending plans, the single force has warned.
A new paper, prepared for a Holyrood committee, has complained the spending outlook is "extremely challenging and concerning”. The submission, made by Police Scotland and the Scottish Police Authority, suggests without additional cash from the Scottish Government, the force could have to cut officer numbers by 4,500.
This would be if 5% wage rises had to be funded over the period up to 2026-27 with no extra cash. Both Chief Constable Iain Livingstone and SPA chair Martyn Evans have “expressed their concern" over the Government spending review.
This was announced in May and set out provisional plans for the rest of this Scottish Parliament term – with Finance Secretary Kate Forbes stressing public sector reform.
But the submission warns: “Should funding allocations follow the parameters of the RSR (resource spending review), this would mean a fundamental reduction in Scottish policing’s capacity and capability to respond to the needs of the public we serve.
“The implications for community policing, operational effectiveness, our ability to police major events and demonstrations fairly and safely and to protect people from existing and emerging threats are significant.”
The paper states that “initial analysis shows that for policing in Scotland to operate within a flat-cash funding allocation, savings of between £200 million and £300 million are required over the period, an average of between £50 m and £75 m per annum”.
With wages making up 86% of the police revenue budget, it adds that “further, significant, cost reductions can only be delivered through a pay-freeze or by funding cost of living pay awards by reducing the size of the workforce”.
Summing up the position, Police Scotland and the SPA state: “Essentially, there are two options: (1) protect the size of the workforce as far as possible through a pay freeze from 2023-24; or (2) implement self-funded cost of living pay increases resulting in an overall reduction in workforce.”
If the 5% pay rise awarded in 2022-23 was replicated over the course of the spending review period, the paper says this would “require indicatively accumulated savings of £222 million, the equivalent of an average 4,500 headcount reduction based on current salaries”.
It goes on to warn: “A significant reduction in police officers or further reductions in police staff would impact on operational service delivery and mean the withdrawal of some services and delays in responding to requests for help from the public.
“The implications for community policing; operational effectiveness, our ability to support major events, and to protect people from existing and emerging threats are significant.”
Police Scotland, who will be represented by chief financial officer James Gray at Wednesday’s meeting, insists the force has already “progressed much of the reform now being asked of the public sector as a whole”.
The submission adds that in doing this it has “returned £200 million annually to the public purse”.
Justice Secretary Keith Brown said: “Our largely fixed budgets and limited fiscal powers means the UK Government needs to provide the Scottish Government with sufficient funding to support public services and the economy in these difficult times.
“We have already made difficult choices to support pay offers in 2022-23 and rightly so, as our police workforce deserve this.
“While policing matters and budgetary prioritisation are always a matter for the Chief Constable, we remain fully committed to using the resources available to us to support the vital work of Police Scotland in delivering effective and responsive policing across Scotland.
“We will work with justice organisations including Police Scotland and SPA to develop and co-ordinate their delivery plans in response to the high-level Spending Review allocations.
“Despite UK Government austerity we have increased police funding year-on-year since 2016-17 and have invested more than £10 billion in policing since the creation of Police Scotland in 2013.”
A Treasury spokesperson said: “The responsibility for funding public services is largely devolved across the UK, but we have provided the Scottish Government with a record £41 billion per year for the next three years – the highest spending review settlement since devolution.”
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