To hear the Polish president compare Ukraine to a drowning person and the Ukrainian president describe Poland as acting in Moscow’s interests will come as a shock to many.
Poland was one of the few western countries that had an ambassador who stayed in Kyiv through the first days of the Russian invasion, and its president, Andrzej Duda, has been a frequent visitor to the Ukrainian capital.
Poland welcomed more than 2 million refugees in the first weeks of the war and millions of Polish people helped out with housing and other volunteer support for displaced Ukrainians.
This all makes the intensity of the rhetoric in the rift over grain imports harder to understand, but it may have more to do with internal politics in Poland than with real issues between the two capitals.
Polls suggest parliamentary elections on 15 October will be an extremely close-run race, and the ruling Law and Justice (PiS) party is looking for boosts to its support wherever possible.
“This is primarily about the election and the motives are quite clear,” said Wojciech Przybylski, the editor-in-chief of the journal Visegrad Insight. PiS is hoping to “flex a muscle with their key electoral groups”, he added, including those involved in agriculture in the east of Poland, who have been most affected by the influx of Ukrainian grain.
The nationalist PiS party is also facing a challenge from the far-right Konfederecja party, which advocates for less help to Ukraine and focusing on Poland’s internal issues. “There has been a persistent motif in government communications since May, with PiS seeking support among nationalist and anti-Ukrainian voters,” said Przybylski.
Although there are elements of “Ukraine fatigue” in Polish society, the ruling party has to tread a careful line as most of the population is staunchly anti-Russian and believes that Ukraine is also fighting for Poland’s security.
Donald Tusk, the leader of the main opposition coalition in next month’s election, on Thursday accused Mateusz Morawiecki, Poland’s prime minister, and the ruling party of a “moral and geopolitical scandal of stabbing Ukraine in the back politically when they decide to fight on the Ukrainian front, just because it will be profitable for their campaign”.
Daniel Szeligowski, a senior research fellow on Ukraine at the Polish Institute of International Affairs, said that although the issue had inevitably become political given that Poland is in an election season, it began with genuine economic concerns.
“During the first four months of this year, import of Ukrainian wheat to Poland rose 600-fold, Polish agriculture was destabilised and the Polish government had no choice but to step in,” he said.
Szeligowski said Poles had given relatively more support to Ukraine and Ukrainians than any other country: four times more than Germans and 10 times more than Americans, when figures were adjusted for GDP, and that if Ukrainian politicians continued with incendiary rhetoric, it would probably complicate the bilateral relationship further, even if both Kyiv and Warsaw will continue to be united in wanting to neutralise the threat from Russia.
However, Polish politicians have also made provocative remarks, including Duda’s extraordinary comparison of the neighbouring state to “a drowning person clinging to anything available”.
Indeed, the rhetoric has risen to such a level that the rift may leave a sour taste even if the grain issue alleviates. Duda will remain president even in the event of an opposition victory next month, while any PiS victory is likely to be a narrow one that may see them remain in “campaign” mode while governing.
“How this develops will of course depend on the outcome of the elections, but it is likely to have a lasting effect on relations whoever is in power,” said Przybylski.
