Summary of Poland’s election night
Donald Tusk, the former Polish prime minister and European Council president, claimed victory in Poland’s parliamentary election on Sunday, making the announcement just minutes after the polls closed, based on the results of an exit poll.
The exit poll showed Law and Justice (PiS) got 36.8% of the vote, Civic Coalition (KO) 31.6%, Third Way 13% and The Left (Lewica) 8.6%.
If confirmed, the result would mean that Civic Coalition, Third Way and The Left would have a majority in Poland’s parliament.
It appears that turnout hit a historic high.
Many Poles waited in long lines to vote. Past 1am local time there were still people voting in one polling station in Wrocław.
“We won democracy, we won freedom, we won our free beloved Poland … This day will be remembered in history as a bright day, the rebirth of Poland,” Tusk told supporters.
Jarosław Kaczyński, the PiS chair, said his party’s result was a big success but admitted “we don’t know” whether the party had a path to government. “Days of fight and tension await us,” he said.
European politicians who have been critical of Law and Justice’s policies celebrated the exit poll results, with experts saying that a Tusk victory would give Warsaw a much bigger voice on the European stage.
Another exit poll is expected to be published in the early morning hours, but the final outcome may only be available well into the day.
Read the full story here and stay tuned for updates on the Guardian site.
There is a lot of excitement among Polish opposition supporters tonight, after the publication of an exit poll suggesting the opposition has a path to forming a government. We are still waiting for more numbers.
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“The nightmare ends,” wrote Bart Staszewski, a Polish LGBTI+ activist.
I am gay, I am Polish and I am proud today. After eight years of hate against people like me, LGBT+ people, the creation of LGBT free zones, attacks on women and minorities, Poland is BACK on the path of democracy and the rule of law. This is also end of political trails of… pic.twitter.com/S6BFClZDED
— Bart Staszewski (@BartStaszewski) October 15, 2023
Election opens way for 'massive reorientation' of Polish policy, expert says
Piotr Buras, head of the European Council on Foreign Relations’ Warsaw office, said this evening that “the opposition’s victory is the result of a growing fatigue with the PiS government in the society, beyond the groups usually supporting the liberals”.
“The liberals have won the absolute majority but the process of forming a government may not be easy and straightforward,” Buras noted, adding that an opposition win “opens the way for a massive reorientation of Poland’s domestic and European policy”.
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If the exit poll results are confirmed, experts point to a number of surprises in the election outcome – particularly when it comes to the very high turnout.
What were the surprises (against pre-vote average polls) shaping the (provisional) results?
— Stanley Bill (@StanleySBill) October 15, 2023
Above all, turnout, which smashed all records.
PiS more or less as expected.
KO and especially Third Way did better.
Left slightly below expectations.
Konfederacja significantly below.
'We stopped Polexit today," Civic Coalition fraction chair says
Borys Budka, chair of Donald Tusk’s Civic Coalition parliamentary fraction, said this evening that the “Polish people proved we don’t want Polexit”.
“We stopped Polexit today. Democracy in Poland stopped Polexit because the third term for PiS would mean Polexit,” he said.
Speaking about possible PiS moves in the coming days if the final results confirm exit polling that the opposition has a route to government, Budka said: “I’m not sure Kaczyński is a person who can make a revolution now. He is not very strong. He looks very tired and even if they try any tricks it wouldn’t be something which changed the result.”
When it comes to discussions on building an opposition coalition, Budka noted that there are still no official results.
“The next 40 hours, 60 hours will show how we build this coalition. But for us it’s obvious that coalition will be us, the Third Way and the Left,” he said.
The next days will show what happens in Poland and I am quite sure that the president will have to appoint the candidate of the majority in the Sejm. We have democracy, we have results of elections and we will build the coalition with the new prime minister.
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As we wait for more numbers, here are more photos from Poland today.
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Poland’s election and exit poll results are getting significant attention abroad.
Siegfried Mureșan, a member of the European parliament and vice-chair of the centre-right European People’s Party group, said that “Poland is back.”
Terry Reintke, co-president of the Greens in the European parliament, said “this evening could be a massive game changer for Europe.”
Poland is back.
— Siegfried Muresan 🇷🇴🇪🇺 (@SMuresan) October 15, 2023
By far the most important election in Europe this year is the Polish national election.
It ended tonight with a victory for democracy.
Opposition won majority of seats.
The eurosceptic Polish government lost.
Congratulations Donald #Tusk! #Polska #Wybory23
This evening could be a massive game changer for Europe.
— Terry Reintke (@TerryReintke) October 15, 2023
Having Poland back at the table of constructive negotiations in the EU will make all of us stronger.
In a moment of so many common challenges, this is absolutely crucial for everyone in Europe.
🇪🇺❤️🇵🇱#Poland
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Adam Bodnar, the former Polish ombudsman and current senate candidate, said an opposition win was due in large part to civil society’s fight for a democratic Poland.
Zwycięstwo demokratycznej opozycji to przede wszystkim wielkie zobowiązanie wobec społeczeństwa obywatelskiego, które walczyło o demokratyczną Polskę i marzy o odzyskaniu zaufania do własnego państwa. Dziękuję za Wasz głos! ✌🏻🇵🇱
— Adam Bodnar (@Adbodnar) October 15, 2023
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What would an opposition win mean for Europe?
Max Bergmann, director of the Europe programme at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, suggests that an opposition victory in Poland could contribute to a power shift eastward within the EU.
Potentially huge news out of Poland. With all the talk of power shifting eastward in the EU, the reality is that it hadn’t shifted. That’s because the PIS Polish govt hadn’t offered a positive vision for Europe (in contrast to Estonia). A new pro-EU Polish govt c/d move things. https://t.co/ZK6jXRGnOv
— Max Bergmann (@maxbergmann) October 15, 2023
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Opposition victory would mean ‘safety’ for women, MP says
Barbara Nowacka, a Civic Coalition MP who has been fiercely critical of PiS crackdown on abortion rights, told me she has little doubt that the election results will give the opposition the possibility to form a government.
“No matter what they will say, we know we won … the opposition will have more seats than the ruling party plus Konfederacja,” she said.
I asked her what an opposition victory would mean for Polish women:
“Safety. Finally safety. Young women won’t be afraid to get pregnant, young women won’t be afraid to go to the doctor. Women won’t be afraid that the Istanbul Convention, which gives them the right to be protected from domestic violence, won’t be implemented. Schools will be free and democratic without the moronic minister of education.”
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Confident vibe at Civic Coalition’s headquarters.
Celebratory vibes in Tusk's Civil Coalition headquarters where Tusk declared victory just minutes after an exit poll showed opposition coalition should be possible (if exit poll correct). Everyone very confident they've done it.
— Shaun Walker (@shaunwalker7) October 15, 2023
Despite the opposition’s very strong showing in exit polling, Polish prime minister Mateusz Morawiecki posted an upbeat message on social media celebrating Law and Justice’s results.
❗️WYGRALIŚMY❗️
— Mateusz Morawiecki (@MorawieckiM) October 15, 2023
❗️Prawo i Sprawiedliwość zwycięzcą wyborów parlamentarnych 2023❗️
❤️🇵🇱❤️
Dziękujemy. Niech żyje Polska❗️ pic.twitter.com/TiYjnXWSUf
Robert Biedroń, a member of the European parliament from New Left, is celebrating what he describes as the end of PiS in Poland.
15 października 2023 roku skończył się w Polsce PiS! ✌🏻 pic.twitter.com/B3kaWvhrGb
— Robert Biedroń (@RobertBiedron) October 15, 2023
Election turnout reaches historic level
Poland’s national electoral commission said that turnout appears to have been the highest since 1989, Gazeta Wyborcza reports.
The Ipsos exit poll found that turnout was at a record 72.9%.
The age group with the highest turnout, according to the poll, was the 50-59 group with 83.2%.
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What would an opposition win mean for Poland’s energy transition?
Poland is Europe’s coal king.
Even as businesses and individuals have put heat pumps in homes and stuck solar panels on roofs – helped in part by government subsidies – Law and Justice has said it sides firmly with the coal industry. The party has promised workers they can keep mining coal, the dirtiest fossil fuel, until 2049. To keep global heating to 1.5C, the International Energy Agency expects rich countries to shut down coal plants by 2030.
“In general the transformation is taking place,” said Zuzanna Rudzińska-Bluszcz, head of the Polish branch of environmental nonprofit ClientEarth. “But in declarations, they treat coal as Polish gold.”
Analysts say an opposition win could turn that around. Before the election, Civic Platform said it will aim to make 65% of Poland’s electricity from renewables by 2030.
“This direction is popular among the electorate and the businesses keen to replace polluting and expensive generation from hard coal and lignite,” said Michał Smoleń, who runs the energy and climate programme at Fundacja Instrat thinktank.
But a progressive coalition would still have its work cut out to pass meaningful climate policies, he added. “Major programmes initiated in the last years – such as development of offshore wind and nuclear power – will likely continue. But governing and implementing the transition will not be easy.”
In particular, he said, the coalition would be unprecedentedly broad, President Duda would still have veto power until 2025, and there could be strong opposition from coal workers’ unions.
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Complicated process ahead
Experts say that even if the exit polling is accurate, it could be weeks until we know the shape of Poland’s next government.
In summary, even if exit polls are right, could be many weeks (pushing into late November) until opposition has chance to form government. Duda may give PiS first chance, and much could happen in between. Even small differences in official results could change picture as well. 3/
— Stanley Bill (@StanleySBill) October 15, 2023
More readers weigh in
Paulina, a reader in Bern, writes in that she waited four hours to vote today in Poland’s election.
Ola from Liverpool says: “We waited 45 minutes to vote in Liverpool today – it was chilly but worth it! The atmosphere was great. We will be very happy if exit poll results are confirmed and opposition parties can form a coalition government.”
Michal, a reader from London, sends this photo and writes: “Long queues but super happy.”
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The Law and Justice government’s European critics are celebrating the results of an early exit poll. If Poland’s opposition does form a government, they say, Hungary’s government would become more isolated on the European stage.
This could turn into a really bad Sunday night for Viktor Orban.
— Daniel Freund (@daniel_freund) October 15, 2023
Good!
🇵🇱🇪🇺✌️
Reader weighs in
Poles living abroad experienced very long lines as they voted earlier today.
A reader in London writes that they waited with their Polish partner for about an hour and a half “with lines of hundreds of people stretching down the road”.
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PiS has most votes, but opposition could have route to government
An exit poll in Poland’s parliamentary election suggested the ruling Law and Justice (PiS) party had won the most votes but, if it turns out to be accurate, appeared to show a possible route to government for a combined opposition coalition led by former prime minister and European Council president Donald Tusk.
However, an exit poll in Slovakia’s election earlier this month appeared to show a victory for a progressive coalition, only for the actual results to be strikingly different. It will be later in the night on Sunday, and perhaps well into Monday when the final results become available.
The exit poll put PiS on 36.8% and Tusk’s Civic Coalition on 31.6%. However, two groups that could form a coalition with Tusk also did well, with 13% for the centre-right Third Way and 8.6% for the leftwing Lewica.
Such a result would mean that the three combined parties would probably have the majority of mandates in Poland’s 460-seat parliament. In a further piece of potential good news for Poland’s progressives, the exit poll put Confederation, a far-right coalition tipped to get about 9% of the vote, on 6.2%, lower than pre-election polls had estimated their support to be.
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‘We don’t know’ if PiS has path to government, Kaczyński says
Jarosław Kaczyński, the PiS chair, said his party’s result was a big success but admitted “we don’t know” whether the party had a path to government. “Days of fight and tension await us,” he told supporters just after the exit poll was released. If PiS is indeed the biggest party, it has the right to have the first attempt at forming a coalition.
“Whether we are in power or in the opposition, we will continue implementing our project and will not allow Poland to be betrayed,” he said.
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It’s a bad night for Poland’s far-right Konfederacja, which according to the exit poll got merely 6.2%.
Sławomir Mentzen, one of its leaders, told supporters this evening that he will think about what conclusions to draw from this, Gazeta Wyborcza reports.
Photo from this evening as opposition supporters celebrate exit poll data.
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Opposition's Donald Tusk declares victory
At the Civic Coalition headquarters at Warsaw’s Ethnographical Museum, Donald Tusk appeared on stage just minutes after voting had finished to declare victory.
“It’s the end of the evil times, it’s the end of the PiS rule, we made it,” he said, to cheers from assembled supporters.
“We won democracy, we won freedom, we won our free beloved Poland … This day will be remembered in history as a bright day, the rebirth of Poland,” he said.
The exit poll indeed seems to show a route for the joint opposition to form a coalition and no route for PiS, but exit polls can be wrong, as the vote in Slovakia earlier this month showed.
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First exit poll shows opposition coalition possible
Polls have closed in Poland.
An exit poll by Ipsos for TVN24.pl shows:
Law and Justice (PiS): 36.8%
Civic Coalition (KO): 31.6%
Third Way: 13%
The Left (Lewica): 8.6%
Konfederacja: 6.2%
According to the exit poll, Law and Justice would take 200 seats, Civic Coalition 163 seats, Third Way 55 seats and The Left 30 seats, meaning that an opposition government coalition could be possible.
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Eyes on smaller groups
The final outcome could depend on how well three smaller groupings do. The leftwing Lewica and centre-right Third Way are expected to form a coalition with Tusk’s Civic Coalition if between them they can muster the 231 seats required to claim a majority in the lower house of parliament.
“As a woman, I don’t feel that for the past eight years there was anyone in parliament who represented me, and I hope this will now change,” said 32-year-old Marta, who had voted for Lewica in Warsaw.
Confederation, a far-right coalition tipped to get about 9% of the vote, is a wild card. It has ruled out formal coalitions but may end up as the kingmaker.
Read the full story here.
While some observers say they fear a victory of the ruling Law and Justice party would mean a further deterioration of democratic norms in Poland, some experts say that another term for the current government would not necessarily lead to a big shift from the status quo.
Stanley Bill, a professor at the University of Cambridge, said that if Law and Justice remains in power “they’re going to be in a significantly weaker position than they were before”.
He added: “All of the institutional structures – both internal and external – and social reality internally in Poland that have effectively prevented PiS from achieving the same radical success as Fidesz has managed to achieve in Hungary: they will all still be there.”
He pointed to “European institutions, the alliance with the United States, the still diverse media sector” as well as “the strength of support for the opposition parties, which is much higher in Poland, the activeness of Polish civil society”.
“All of those elements that have prevented PiS from going as far as it might otherwise have done in degrading Poland’s democracy will still be there and PiS’s own political position will be significantly weaker.”
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‘Last moment’
Edit Zgut-Przybylska, an adjunct professor at the Polish Academy of Sciences, said that in her view the stakes in today’s election are whether Poland reverses its “democratic backsliding” or “follows Hungary into the club of electoral autocracies”.
“This might be the very last moment to restore the Polish rule of law,” she said, adding:
The country plays a critical geopolitical role in an acute existential crisis posed by Russia. If PiS [Law and Justice] stays in power and completes the authoritarian remaking, the EU might set a blind eye in order to keep Poland on board with helping Ukraine. That would have a detrimental impact not only on Poland but on the democratic design of the EU as a whole.
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High turnout in Poland's election
Turnout has been very high in today’s election, with long lines at polling stations.
At 5pm, turnout was at 57.54%, according to the country’s election commission.
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More than 100 monitors from the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe are monitoring the vote, Douglas Wake, the head of the mission, told me outside a Warsaw polling station this morning. The mission will give its preliminary assessment of the vote at a press conference tomorrow afternoon.
In previous elections under PiS rule, the monitoring group has said the vote was largely free of violations on the day, but it has flagged longer-term problems in the political and media climate, such as the fact that public television has a clear bias in favour of PiS.
There are also tens of thousands of Polish volunteers who have signed up to monitor the vote at polling stations.
Photograph: Krzysztof Zatycki/ZUMA Press Wire/Shutterstock
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Key event
What is at stake in Poland’s election?
We asked Wojciech Sadurski, a professor at the University of Sydney who specialises in constitutionalism of Central Europe.
The ruling Law and Justice party’s Jarosław Kaczyński, Poland’s deputy prime minister, has according to Sadurski followed the “authoritarian script” of Hungarian prime minister Viktor Orbán.
The academic pointed to the ruling party’s “capturing the constitutional court and the supreme court, subjecting regular judges of lower instances to the political will – with mixed success, one must add – turning public media into a vulgar propaganda machine, subjecting many (not all, not yet) commercial media to party control” and “setting up a network of rightwing NGOs as a sort of alternative civil society”.
What is at stake with today’s election, the professor said, are “individual, independent judges and a handful of independent public prosecutors” as well as “those few remaining independent commercial media, such as TVN or Gazeta Wyborcza daily” and “powers of local self-government”. He also said the office of ombudsman, academic freedoms and critical NGOs are at risk.
“There may not be another chance,” Sadurski warned, “for a peaceful and civil transition the fourth time round.”
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'Rule of law will be destroyed' if government stays, judge says
I ran into Igor Tuleya, a judge who has been strongly critical of PiS judicial policies, outside a Warsaw polling station this morning and asked him for his thoughts on the vote.
Tuleya, who was suspended from work for more than two years and has led a campaign against PiS’s attack on the judiciary, said he thought the elections were as important as the vote in 1989 which marked the beginning of the end of the communist era in the country.
“I am sure that if this government stays in power they will continue their path and the rule of law will be destroyed in Poland,” he said.
Tuleya also said he was worried about potential attempts to discredit the results or interfere in the process in the event of a PiS defeat. Electoral results are ratified by the Chamber of Extraordinary Control and Public Affairs, created by the PiS government.
Laurent Pech, a law professor, wrote on Twitter that the chamber “entirely consists of unlawfully appointed individuals”.
Here are some photos from Poland’s election day.
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Poles vote as PiS hopes to win third term and fend off Tusk-led opposition
Poles are voting in the country’s parliamentary election, with the populist Law and Justice (PiS) government trying to win a third term in office and see off a challenge from an opposition led by the former prime minister and European Council president Donald Tusk.
Polling in the run-up to the vote suggested the race was too close to call, and the ability for either PiS or Tusk’s Civic Coalition to form a government is likely to come down to the results of other, smaller parties.
Both sides have painted the vote as being of decisive, if not existential, importance for the future of Poland. Tusk has described the election as “the last chance” to stop PiS from doing irreparable damage to Polish democracy.
PiS, which has governed Poland for eight years, has turned public television into a propaganda arm of the government, restricted abortion rights and demonised LGBTQ+ people, migrants and refugees.
It has also put Poland on a collision course with Brussels over rule of law issues, resulting in tens of billions of euros in European funding being frozen.
PiS has run a campaign from the populist playbook, claiming it is the only party that can protect Poland from an “invasion” of refugees. The campaign has also focused on the figure of Tusk, relentlessly attacking the challenger as a foreign stooge.
“This election will show whether Poland will be governed by Poles, or by Berlin or Brussels,” the PiS chair, Jarosław Kaczyński, said at the party’s final campaign rally on Friday.
Read the full story here.
Welcome to the blog
Good evening and welcome to the Poland election live blog.
Polls will close at 9pm local time. Here you will find the latest results, news and analysis on what is expected to be a tight race.
The Guardian’s Shaun Walker is on the ground in Warsaw.
Did you vote in today’s election? Send your thoughts to lili.bayer@theguardian.com.
We will share some reader comments on the blog throughout the night.
