James Snook/USA TODAY Sports
There are the star players you know, and then there are those X-factor players who step up in the biggest moments of the NCAA tournament. We pick the most pivotal players for the Sweet 16 teams as the tourney picks up again Thursday.
West Region
No. 4 Arkansas vs. No. 1 Gonzaga: Thursday, 7:09 p.m. ET (CBS)
• Gonzaga: In the rare moments his team’s offense has dried up, Rasir Bolton has often been their best source of key shots. Opponents know they have to play the Zags physically to have a chance, but it’s still pretty hard to keep them under 80 points. You still can’t stop everyone, and when the unheralded guard Bolton is knocking down open threes in support of his star teammates, Gonzaga typically rolls.
• Arkansas: The Razorbacks typically play just one true big center, which places the onus on 6'10" Jaylin Williams to hold his own against Gonzaga’s talented frontline of Chet Holmgren and Drew Timme. Williams will be tasked with converting buckets, protecting the rim while avoiding fouls. If Arkansas has to go deep down its bench up front, it’s in major trouble.
No. 3 Texas Tech versus No. 2 Duke: Thursday, 9:39 p.m. ET (CBS)
• Duke: While Trevor Keels hasn’t played particularly well over the past two weeks, he stepped up against Michigan State and will have to again, particularly with A.J. Griffin’s uncertain status. The Blue Devils have received consistent play from their stars, but aren’t very deep, and will need Keels to pick his spots effectively in what might be major minutes against a stingy Texas Tech defense.
• Texas Tech: The Red Raiders are a team that wins by committee, but Bryson Williams will be tasked with scoring and winning a probable matchup against Duke star Paolo Banchero. Williams has the size and strength to keep up, and if he also knocks down some shots, things could get spicy.
East Region
No. 15 Saint Peter’s vs. No. 3 Purdue: Friday, 7:09 p.m. ET (CBS)
• Purdue: Coach Matt Painter has turned to sophomore Ethan Morton for 20-plus minutes in each tourney game, and the guard responded with a pair of big threes against Texas. Morton is a smart decision-maker and gives the Boilermakers extra size and better ball-movement on the wing. Mason Gillis and Sasha Stefanovic haven’t been making a ton of shots lately, and Morton’s emergence is a key development.
• Saint Peter’s: While KC Ndefo feels like an obvious choice here as the Peacocks’ top player on both ends, it’ll be imperative he avoids fouls and plays a disciplined game for their magic to continue. Purdue’s humongous platoon of Zach Edey and Trevion Williams may feast otherwise.
No. 8 UNC vs. No. 4 UCLA: Friday, 9:39 p.m. ET (CBS)
• North Carolina: Brady Manek has been on a shooting tear in the tournament (9-of-18 from 3-point range). If he stays hot, the Tar Heels have a chance to pull off another upset against a UCLA team that may be without Jaime Jaquez, who, if healthy, will likely be chasing Manek around.
• UCLA: While he doesn’t get as much credit as his better-known teammates, Jules Bernard has canned multiple threes and scored double digits in eight straight games. If Jaquez can’t play, someone other than Johnny Juzang has to make shots for the Bruins to stay afloat. Bernard may have to shoot away.
South Region
No. 11 Michigan vs. No. 2 Villanova: Thursday, 7:29 p.m. ET (TBS)
• Villanova: One thing the Wildcats don’t have much of is size, which is an issue as they prepare to face a very large center in Michigan’s Hunter Dickinson. Jermaine Samuels is just 6’7”, but is the pivotal glue guy for Villanova’s frontline as a fifth-year senior. He’ll have to try to throw the big man off rhythm to avoid a letdown.
• Michigan: When freshman Caleb Houstan makes his open shots, Michigan can be pretty potent offensively. When he doesn’t, he doesn’t offer his team much despite logging a ton of minutes. A mature performance from him against a much older team could be the difference.
No. 5 Houston vs. No. 1 Arizona: Thursday, 9:59 p.m. ET (TBS)
• Arizona: Top interior scorer Azuolas Tubelis hasn’t been his usual self this month, and scored just five points in 16 minutes against TCU. He will need to bounce back against another physical opponent in Houston, which will try to pound the glass. If Tubelis can stay on the floor, the Wildcats are far more potent in theory; if not, this could be another close call.
• Houston: The Cougars prefer to grind games down and don’t launch a ton of threes, but will need to make some shots to have a chance against a great transition team in Arizona. Kyler Edwards has made 10 triples in his first two tourney games and likely needs to answer the call again if there’s an upset brewing.
Midwest Region
No. 4 Providence vs. No. 1 Kansas: Friday, 7:29 p.m. ET (TBS)
• Kansas: Remy Martin has given the Jayhawks a massive boost so far, managing an efficient 35 points in his first two tourney games and evidently returning to coach Bill Self’s circle of trust. Self is really only using six players consistently, and a focused Martin at point guard makes them much tougher to defend than starter Dajuan Harris.
• Providence: No top-four seed endured more doubts than the Friars, who, to their credit, won two convincing games last week. Power forward Noah Horchler has been excellent, working the glass and knocking down shots. He’ll have to find another gear in a probable matchup against Kansas counterpart Christian Braun, who will use his speed to create an advantage in transition.
No. 11 Iowa State vs. No. 10 Miami: Friday, 9:59 p.m. ET (TBS)
• Miami: The Canes can take advantage of a middling Iowa State frontcourt if forward Jordan Miller can rediscover his form from earlier in the month. His rebounding and defensive contributions will be pivotal in a game the Cyclones will presumably try to muck up. When Miller scores in double digits, Miami is much harder to handle.
• Iowa State: Iowa State wouldn’t be here at all without freshman point guard Tyrese Hunter, who dominated in a win against LSU but struggled to score the ball against Wisconsin. At 18, he’ll be the youngest player on the floor while matching up against Miami’s veteran guards, but he is also fully capable of being the best player in that game.
ICYMI …
Scot Tucker/AP; David Butler II/USA TODAY Sports; Sean Rayford/AP
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