LAS VEGAS — Backing the Orioles since 2022 and wagering against the lowly A’s this year have been some of baseball’s smarter wagering tactics.
The former, which we’ve trumpeted, has returned 39 profit units through Tuesday, according to Covers.com, the latter nearly 28 units.
And Rays starter Shane McClanahan leads everyone in victories. On Monday, the lefty beat the Red Sox for an MLB-best ninth win. He had 30-to-1 preseason Westgate SuperBook odds on that prop.
However, just to win the National League Central, the Pirates, managed by former Southern Illinois catcher and Carbondale native Derek Shelton, represented a peculiar preseason option.
At William Hill in December, the Pirates were 150-1; at the SuperBook in January, they were 100-1. Lindy’s preseason annual had them finishing third in the division, Baseball Prospectus pegged them fourth.
Among SuperBook patrons who bit on the Pirates at 100-1, one did so for $150, another for $300. SuperBook executive vice president Jay Kornegay added that someone invested $200 on a 500-1 Pirates World Series ticket.
Monday, their divisional odds were +600, or risk $100 to win $600.
Tuesday at PNC Park, Pittsburgher and veteran punter Ron Boyles watched the Pirates, nearly -300 favorites, lose to Oakland. The Brewers eked back into first by beating Baltimore.
Expect a four-month NL Central roller coaster.
From his home in Chester, West Virginia, Boyles noted Milwaukee’s poor offense and tapped St. Louis to make a run:
“If the Pirates win 75 games, that would be a 13-game increase from last season. Tremendous. They’re definitely excited in Pittsburgh for the first time since 2015.”
DISASTER DIVISIONS
The Central in both leagues is rubbish, led in the American League by Minnesota.
A team might win a division with a .500 record, or worse, for the first time with a full 162-game schedule since baseball went to three divisions in both leagues in 1994.
In 2005, San Diego came closest to such ignominy when the 82-80 Padres won the NL West by five games over Arizona.
Pittsburgh has the longest preseason divisional odds of anyone near a division’s peak.
The South Point opened March 30 with the Pirates at 60-1. Sportsbook director Chris Andrews was savvy to survey the landscape before exposing his shop to triple-digit damage.
Then again, Andrews is a Pittsburgher.
“I can always hope,” he said of the Pirates faring well, “but I don’t have much confidence.”
Slivers of hope remain with the White Sox, who had 12-1 divisional odds at the SuperBook this week, and the Cubs, who were +900. The Cardinals were +330.
Kornegay surveyed both divisions.
“Disasters.”
NO NOVELTY
Author, historian, Beano Cook biographer and Pittsburgher John D. Lukacs isn’t a Pirates fan. Go Steelers, he said. With the Pirates, “it’s too ingrained in my head that they’re losers.”
In his 46 years, the Bucs have recorded 14 winning seasons. They suffered triple-figure losses in 2021 and ’22, doldrums the five-time-champion franchise last experienced from 1952-54.
Chintzy owner Bob Nutting has been the bane of the fan base. However, general manager Ben Cherington, a turnaround architect in Boston, provided some hope.
Indeed, veteran oddsman and Pittsburgher Dave Sharapan, Boyles, and Long Island handicapper Tom Barton were all bullish on Over for the Pirates’ projected preseason victory total of 65.5 to 66.5.
Boyles bet $2,000 on Over 65.5 wins, risking another $500 on Under 71.5 — a sweet potential middle — when Pittsburgh started 20-8.
I nabbed +200 on the Brewers, to win the division, after they improved to 5-1 on April 5, but they rank 28th in batting average, slugging percentage and runs.
Like Boyles, I don’t trust Milwaukee. So I grabbed late-to-the-party divisional tickets on the Reds (30-1) and Pirates (10-1) on June 1.
Lukacs, who lives 20 minutes from Pittsburgh in White Valley, has been watching the 36-year-old Andrew McCutchen hit .268, his best batting average in six seasons.
“They’re entertaining. I like how they play and their hustle. I am genuinely surprised by Cutch’s play; I thought he was washed up, brought back for nostalgia and to move the turnstiles.”
BUYERS OR SELLERS?
The Pirates, typically, would be in position to deal ace starter Mitch Keller, and sterling reliever and Pittsburgh native David Bednar, both in the final year of their contracts.
Now, though, will they add a Shane Bieber or Lucas Giolito for the stretch run? Or do the Yankees swipe Keller and Bednar by the Aug. 1 trading deadline?
Barton pegs St. Louis for Cleveland’s Bieber but is leery about a dip in Bieber’s velocity for a second consecutive season. Barton has cashed regular winners on Over for in game strikeouts for Keller.
Sharapan, meanwhile, displays his baseball passion daily, in donning different uniforms and caps. He seems to beam brightest when wearing a Pirates jersey and cap, as he did recently in Seattle.
Summer family trips, with his wife and three daughters, are planned to see the Bucs in Arizona, Los Angeles and San Diego.
“The bullpen has become a strength, with Bednar as a lights-out closer and gas guys before him. Veteran leadership from Cutch and [Carlos] Santana has helped tremendously. Health and bullpen management are big keys.
“It doesn’t look like anyone is going to run away with it. I’m falling back to the ‘We Are Family’ [from 1979] and 2013-15 days. Can they win the division? As of right now, Why the hell not?”
