It is going to be a long few days as Nottingham Forest wait to return to Premier League action.
Fingernails are being bitten, nerves are being frayed and permutations are being debated - and that’s well in advance of the Reds taking on Southampton. There will be much at stake when the teams meet at the City Ground next Monday night.
Steve Cooper’s side have four games left to try to avoid an immediate return to the Championship. Currently, you can throw a blanket over the teams in the relegation scrap, with Forest in the bottom three on goal difference.
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They are level on points with Leeds United and Leicester City, while Everton are a point below. West Ham United could yet be dragged into trouble - although they do have a four-point cushion - but Southampton look to be adrift at the bottom.
The next few weeks will be tense. We take a look at the run-in ahead.
Forest’s run-in
The Reds are 18th in the table after 34 games, sitting on 30 points with a -32 goal difference. Their form from their last five games (oldest first) reads LLLWL.
Remaining fixtures
Southampton (H): Monday, May 8. Position in table: 20th. Last five games: LLDLL.
It is a must-win game for the hosts. The Saints are rock-bottom and have picked up one point from their last six matches. Forest’s only league win on the road came in the reverse fixture back in January. A repeat result would be huge and would also provide a boost for the remaining clashes. Anything less than that and Cooper’s men would have a heck of a task on their hands.
Chelsea (A): Saturday, May 13. Position in table: 12th. Last five games (in all competitions): LLLLL.
If the Reds are to stay up, it seems likely they will need to end a seven-match losing streak on the road in the league. Not since the 1-1 draw at Bournemouth in January have they picked up anything on their travels. They need to go to Stamford Bridge fancying their chances of getting something, though. The Blues are on a nine-match winless run.
Arsenal (H): Saturday, May 20. Position in table: 1st. Last five games: DDDLW
Will the title race be over by then? Will it make any difference? Forest found out to their cost just how dangerous the Gunners are, when they played them at the Emirates. They will back themselves against almost anyone at the City Ground, however.
Crystal Palace (A): Sunday, May 28. Position in table: 11th. Last five games: WWDLW.
Under Roy Hodgson, Palace have pulled away from the pack at the bottom. Given the Reds’ away form, a trip to the capital on the final day could be a nervy one. In an ideal world, they would want to be safe by then. Even an Eagles side with nothing to play for would present a test if not. But if needs must, Forest would no doubt settle for taking it to the last game.
What Forest need to do: Beat Southampton, for a start. But they also need to be wary of their inferior goal difference. Leicester and Leeds know that matching the points tally of two of the teams below them in their remaining games would almost certainly be enough for them - their goal difference effectively counts as an extra point. Getting to 40 points is often said to be the magic mark, but the cut-off point for survival seems likely to be much lower than that this year.
Relegation rivals’ run-ins
West Ham United, 15th place (34 points)
Manchester City (A) - Wed, May 3
Manchester United (H) - Sun, May 7
Brentford (A) - Sun, May 14
Leeds United (H) - Sun, May 21
Leicester City (A) - Sun, May 28
Average current position of opponents - 9.6
The Hammers look as though they will have just about enough to stay up at this point. Their final two games could have big implications for the overall relegation picture, though.
Leicester City, 16th place (30 points)
Fulham (A) - Mon, May 8
Liverpool (H) - Mon, May 15
Newcastle United (A) - Mon, May 22
West Ham United (H) - Sun, May 28
Average current position of opponents - 8.25
The Foxes’ run-in doesn’t look the easiest. But Jamie Vardy, in particular, seems to be benefiting from the change in manager.
Leeds United, 17th place (30 points)
Manchester City (A) - Sat, May 6
Newcastle United (H) - Sat, May 13
West Ham United (A) - Sun, May 21
Tottenham Hotspur (H) - Sun, May 28
Average current position of opponents - 6.5
Leeds have rolled the dice for the final time, bringing in Sam Allardyce for an attempt at fire-fighting. His first two games are not exactly a walk in the park…
Everton, 19th place (29 points)
Brighton and Hove Albion (A) - Mon, May 8
Manchester City (H) - Sun, May 14
Wolverhampton Wanderers (A) - Sat, May 20
Bournemouth (H) - Sun, May 28
Average current position of opponents - 9.25
The Toffees are winless in seven, but they showed fight against Leicester. That final day meeting with the Cherries could be a big one.
Southampton, 20th place (24 points)
Nottingham Forest (A) - Mon, May 8
Fulham (H) - Sat, May 13
Brighton and Hove Albion (A) - Sun, May 21
Liverpool (H) - Sun, May 28
Average current position of opponents - 10.25
It will take a monumental effort for the Saints to stay up now. Forest need to make sure they add to their misery next Monday.
Will Forest stay up? Have your say in the comments below
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