One of the best matchups in Major League Baseball on Monday takes place in Houston with the Houston Astros hosting Paul Skenes and the Pittsburgh Pirates.
The rookie sensation has been as good as advertised through his first 12 MLB starts, and he’ll look to slow down a potent Houston attack on Monday night.
The Astros are starting a rookie of their own – Jake Bloss – who has not been as good this season, posting a 6.94 ERA across three outings.
The Pirates have struggled to give Skenes the proper run support he’s needed in some starts, including his last outing where he tossed 8.1 innings of two-run ball and still got the loss.
So, how should we bet on this matchup?
First, let’s take a look at the odds, key players to watch and probable pitchers for Monday’s showdown.
Pirates vs. Astros Odds, Run Line and Total
Run Line
- Pirates -1.5 (+114)
- Astros +1.5 (-135)
Moneyline
- Pirates: -148
- Astros: +124
Total
- 7.5 (Over -115/Under -105)
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.
Pirates vs. Astros Probable Pitchers
- Pittsburgh: Paul Skenes (6-1, 1.93 ERA)
- Houston: Jake Bloss (0-1, 6.94 ERA)
Pirates vs. Astros How to Watch
- Date: Monday, July 29
- Time: 8:10 p.m. EST
- Venue: Minute Maid Park
- How to Watch (TV): AT&T SportsNet Pittsburgh, AT&T SportsNet Southwest
- Pirates record: 53-52
- Astros record: 55-50
Pirates vs. Astros Key Players to Watch
Pittsburgh Pirates
Paul Skenes: The frontrunner for the NL Rookie of the Year and a true Cy Young candidate, Paul Skenes has taken MLB by storm this season. Skenes has punched out at least seven batters in 11 of his 12 starts, totaling 97 strikeouts across 74.2 innings of work. He’s also posted an extremely impressive 1.93 ERA, allowing three or fewer earned runs in each of his starts.
Houston Astros
Yordan Alvarez: Alvarez vs. Skenes will be must-watch TV, as the Astros slugger is one of the best hitters in baseball this season, posting a .297/.380/.535 slash line with 20 homers and 54 runs batted in. Alvarez is hitting .346 with a homer, four doubles and a triple over his last seven games.
Pirates vs. Astros Prediction and Pick
The Astros average the third fewest strikeouts per game this season, but that’s not going to stop me from betting on the best bet in baseball right now:
The OVER on Paul Skenes’ strikeout prop.
In 12 starts, Skenes has cleared this prop 10 times, registering at least seven strikeouts in 11 of those 12 starts.
That gives him a pretty solid floor to reach this prop, and we’re getting him to go OVER at plus money? Sign me up.
Skenes worked into the ninth inning in his last outing, and he’s pitched at least seven innings in each of his three starts in July.
Plus, the rookie’s stuff is straight up nasty. Skenes ranks in the 96th percentile in strikeout percentage this season, and he's in the 98th percentile in pitching run value.
He’s also struck out at least eight hitters in five straight starts. As good as Houston is at avoiding the punchout, Skenes isn’t like any other pitcher in baseball. Let’s ride this trend again on Monday.
Pick: Paul Skenes OVER 7.5 Strikeouts (+125)
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
This article was originally published on www.si.com as Pirates vs. Astros Prediction, Odds and Probable Pitchers for Monday, July 29 (Bet on Paul Skenes).
