SAN DIEGO — As Dave Dombrowski packed his garment bag Wednesday and checked out of the Manchester Grand Hyatt, he might have considered borrowing a line from Michael Corleone near the end of The Godfather.
”Today, I settled all family business.”
Because when Dombrowski led the Phillies’ delegation of executives and scouts to the winter meetings this week, the National League champions had a list of offseason needs that included a shortstop, a middle-of-the-rotation starting pitcher, and help for the bullpen. And in a span of 32 hours — for a total of $387 million — they crossed off each item.
Trea Turner. Check.
Taijuan Walker. Check.
Matt Strahm. Check.
Happy holidays, joyous New Year, see everyone on Feb. 13 in Clearwater, Fla.
These meetings were supposed to be marked by Aaron Judge’s big decision, with the home-run king finally choosing between staying with the New York Yankees or going to play for his hometown San Francisco Giants. That answer finally came on Wednesday, the final day of the meetings, when Judge re-signed with the Yankees for $360 million.
But the Phillies dominated the meetings from start to finish. One month after their postseason thrill ride ended in Game 6 of the World Series, they made their intentions clear: They plan on making Red October an annual thing at Citizens Bank Park, and the next time they go deep in the playoffs, it won’t be such a surprise.
It was vintage Dombrowski, the star-hunting president of baseball operations who acts swiftly and decisively when he’s able to home in on a target at a specific position. It was classic John Middleton, the owner and former competitive wrestler who will spare virtually no expense in search of the two wins that separated the Phillies from the third World Series championship in their 140-year history.
And it was another reminder that there’s no better owner-executive match in baseball. Middleton and Dombrowski are seemingly made for each other.
“Both Dave and I really appreciate the difference that true greatness can mean to an organization,” Middleton said by phone Monday night, hours after the Phillies agreed on an 11-year, $300 million contract with Turner. “I said, ‘I’m supporting you. If your baseball judgment is this guy is a significant difference-maker, just get him and we’ll clean up those details later.’ ”
That’s life among baseball’s heavyweights.
A few other takeaways from two days in San Diego:
The Phillies are a destination again
Turner chose the Phillies’ offer over $342 million from the San Diego Padres. He will get a chance to explain that decision when he receives a red-pinstriped No. 7 jersey at a news conference Thursday at Citizens Bank Park.
It may have had to do with teaming up with good pal Bryce Harper again or reuniting with hitting coach Kevin Long. Geography may have played a part, with some people within baseball believing Turner strongly preferred being closer to his family in Florida and his wife’s in New Jersey.
But a source familiar with Turner’s thinking said the Phillies impressed the 29-year-old two-time All-Star by making clear that he was their first choice from among a star-studded shortstop market that featured Carlos Correa, Xander Bogaerts, and Dansby Swanson.
In turn, Phillies officials said they heard from several free agents that they were eager to experience the electric playoff atmosphere in South Philly that they saw on television. Turner presumably was of that opinion.
”A number of guys have used the phrase, ‘You can feel it through the TV,’ ” general manager Sam Fuld said. “Most of the guys we talked to were glued to the TV watching, through the playoffs.”
Innings mattered in the pitching pursuit
The Phillies didn’t pursue Jacob deGrom or Justin Verlander at the top of the pitching market. After landing Turner, they wouldn’t sign another player who was tied to a qualifying offer to avoid forfeiting additional draft picks or international bonus money. That eliminated Tier 2 starters Carlos Rodón and Chris Bassitt.
But there was one thing they craved: innings.
Once Zach Eflin, Kyle Gibson, and Noah Syndergaard became free agents, the Phillies needed to replace 288 innings in the starting rotation. They believe half may come from some combination of 19-year-old phenom Andrew Painter, lefties Bailey Falter and Cristopher Sánchez, and possibly prospects Griff McGarry and Mick Abel.
Walker is coming off back-to-back seasons of at least 155 innings. Since 2020, the 30-year-old right-hander ranks 37th among all pitchers with 369 2/3 innings while posting an ERA+ of 105, meaning he was 5% better than league average.
In a market in which Eflin got $13.3 million from the Tampa Bay Rays despite topping 130 innings only once in his career, Walker’s relative reliability enabled him to get $18 million per year. The Phillies also talked with Jameson Taillon, who reportedly got $17 million per year for four seasons from the Chicago Cubs.
But the price for free-agent pitching also raises this question: How much more than that will Aaron Nola make in his next contract?
The Phillies may find out if, as expected, they discuss an extension with him later in the offseason. Nola, who leads the majors in starts since 2018 (143) and has a 117 ERA+ and two top-four Cy Young Award finishes, will make $16 million next year.
Money remains the Phillies’ top asset
As much as anything this year, the Phillies were encouraged by the progress made by young, homegrown players such as Alec Bohm, Bryson Stott, Ranger Suárez, Seranthony Domínguez, and Connor Brogdon.
Next up: Painter, who reminds Dombrowski of 2001 Josh Beckett and is expected by some in the organization to be the No. 5 starter coming out of spring training.
But the Phillies have bought their way back to contention since 2018, and ownership’s willingness to keep spending is evidence of its commitment to winning over the next handful of years.
Once Turner, Walker, and Strahm pass physicals and finalize their contracts, the projected 2023 payroll will stand at approximately $238 million, $5 million over the initial luxury-tax threshold and $5 million shy of where the Phillies finished 2022.
The question now isn’t whether the Phillies will pay the tax for a second consecutive year but rather how close they will get to the second threshold of $253 million, as they look to add another reliever and depth on the margins.
They also have $185.5 million in commitments for 2024, according to the salary tracker at Cot’s Baseball Contracts, and $154.9 million for 2025.
Their intention couldn’t be clearer: Go for it.
“If you’ve identified the people accurately, just get them,” Middleton said. “If we go after somebody, we’re serious.”
