With just a few weeks left until training camp arrives at the end of the month, the Indianapolis Colts are one of the more difficult teams to project.
The addition of a first-year head coach and enticing (but inexperienced) rookie quarterback gives the Colts an extremely wide range of outcomes for the 2023 season.
From a record perspective, they could be one of the worst teams in the NFL or they could surprise everyone and compete for a wild-card spot.
Pro Football Focus recently ran simulations for every team, projecting their 2023 win total. It came out to 7.77 wins, which came out to be the eighth-fewest in the NFL. That means they would be holding the No. 8 overall pick in the 2024 NFL draft.
In the AFC South, the Jacksonville Jaguars led the way with 9.09 simulated wins. That was followed up by the Tennessee Titans at 8.56 simulated wins. The Colts were next at 7.77 while the Houston Texans projected to be the worst in the entire league with 5.93 simulated wins.
Much of the outlook for the Colts depends on the development of the rookie quarterback in Anthony Richardson. He has a long way to go as a passer simply because of his inexperience, but if he can get by using his legs while developing his passing, the Colts could be more competitive than most believe.
It’s a quarterback-driven league so it’s no shock that it all comes down to his development. But a 7-10 or 8-9 season would be considered pretty solid considering the heavy changes the offseason brought.
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