In a recent article predicting where its top-50 free agents will land this offseason, Pro Football Focus believes Tennessee Titans linebacker and pending free agent, David Long, will land with the New York Giants.
Here’s what PFF’s Arjun Menon and Brad Spielberger had to say about the prediction:
2023 team prediction: New York Giants
The Titans don’t have much cap space heading into free agency, and while Long was a huge part of their No. 1-ranked run defense in 2022, they’ll likely let him walk, especially with Zach Cunningham’s deal on the books. The Giants just had one of the league’s worst linebacker rooms, starting a playoff game with Jaylon Smith and Jarrad Davis. They desperately need to upgrade the position, and Long would be that guy. In the regular season, Long posted the seventh-best run stop percentage among all linebackers, while recording a 1.1-yard average depth of tackle (best). The Giants’ run defense was pretty bad in 2022, so adding Long would help to shore that part of the defense up heading into 2023.
While Menon and Spielberger point out Cunningham’s deal being on the books as a potential deterrent for the Titans re-signing Long, the reality is Tennessee will likely cut the veteran to save money, so that isn’t an issue.
That, along with how important Long has been to the defense, could make the Titans more motivated to keep him than not, as they’d otherwise be looking at two new starters at inside linebacker in 2023.
That said, there is a big concern with Long, who has developed into a very good, starting-quality player overall during his four years in the NFL when on the field.
The West Virginia product has never played a full season. In the last two, Long has missed seven and five games, respectively, mostly due to soft-tissue injuries.
Long was even specifically mentioned by head coach Mike Vrabel as one of the repeat offenders with such injuries, along with cornerback Kristian Fulton.
Mike Vrabel mentioned Kristian Fulton and David Long Jr as soft tissue injury repeat offenders when he was asked how the #Titans have had injuries pile up. Said he wants them to find ways to avoid those soft tissue injuries.
— TURRON DAVENPORT (@TDavenport_NFL) January 9, 2023
With the Titans looking to turn over a new leaf with injuries (they’ve been the most injured team in the NFL the past two years), Long’s return is probably 50/50 and will likely greatly depend upon what it’ll cost to keep him.
Spotrac estimates Long will garner a deal worth $4.9 million annually, which if accurate should be a no-brainer move for Tennessee, even with the injury concerns.
However, I tend to believe he’ll get a few million more than that on the open market when multiple teams are likely to get involved.
Putting the injury issues aside, Long would be a good fit for the Giants, as his aggressive play style and prowess against the run would provide a boost to a New York run defense that ranked 27th in the NFL.
Long’s coverage skills aren’t his best suit, but he’s certainly improved in that area over the past few seasons.
If our own prediction comes to fruition, Long will stay in Nashville for at least one more year, but there’s no telling what will happen once free agency rolls around and teams with more money than the Titans begin throwing their weight around.
