Maybe we all got a little too caught up in the Geno Smith hype. While Smith’s play this season overall has vastly exceeded even the most-hopeful projections, it’s no longer possible to ignore the decline he’s gone through over the last several weeks.
On film, Smith is simply not taking care of the ball as well as he was early in the season. For a while now Smith has too often appeared over-aggressive, trying to throw dimes tight windows at a high rate, extending plays too long and not maintaining ball security in the red zone. It hasn’t worked out well for him or his team. These numbers from Pro Football Focus illustrate how much Smith’s recklessness with the ball has hurt Seattle.
According to Pro Football Focus, Smith has lost more expected points to interceptions, sacks and fumbles than any other QB since Week 5.
Geno Smith
Weeks 1-4: 5th in EPA/play, 30.9 total EPA
Weeks 5-14: 18th in EPA/play, 29.7 total EPAMistakes have been killers, with Geno losing more expected points to INTs, sacks and fumbles since Week 5 than any other quarterback pic.twitter.com/1GximK1y3v
— Kevin Cole (@KevinColePFF) December 12, 2022
To be fair, Smith is still producing offense consistently. Yesterday’s game against Carolina was a good example of how he’s played since midseason. Smith posted 264 yards and three touchdown passes. However, he threw two interceptions and could have had four.
Smith was at his best early in 2022 when he had a healthy balance between taking shots and taking what the defense gave him. He needs to shift his instincts back in the latter direction.
Smith has four games remaining this season to correct course and protect the ball better. If he doesn’t, then Seattle may start thinking about that deep 2023 draft class of quarterbacks again.
