From Prince of Darkness to deputy prime minister to Your Excellency. It is fair to say that the latest incarnation of the politician with nine lives is not a universally acclaimed appointment. In conversation with a cabinet minister a couple of weeks ago, I brought up the idea of Peter Mandelson becoming the UK’s man in Washington. The minister arched a sceptical eyebrow before saying: “We already have a very good ambassador there.”
There were considerable qualms within government about giving such a pivotal role to one of the most controversial figures in British politics and quite a lot of support for extending the term of the well-regarded Dame Karen Pierce. Sir Keir Starmer was ultimately persuaded that it will take more than the skills of a career diplomat to handle relations with the US during a second Trump term which everyone expects to be a noisy and perilous ride. “I think it is a super smart appointment,” remarks one government loyalist. “My instinct is that Trump respects serious operators and we all know what an operator Peter is.” A friend of Lord Mandelson reports: “He knows what his job is going to be. It is to be the voice of Britain in the president’s ear.” The calculation at Number 10 is that Donald Trump, a man bored by conventional diplomatic types, will be sufficiently intrigued by a figure as vivid as Lord M to pay him attention.
The attractions of the job to its recipient are self-evident. This is a significant and glamorous role. It comes with an extremely grand and recently refurbished Lutyens-designed residence on Massachusetts Avenue. He loves being at the centre of events as he also has a penchant for razzle-dazzle and a taste for the finer things in life. Helping Sir Keir to navigate the second Trump presidency presents complex challenges and Lord M fancies himself one of the sharpest problem-solvers in the business. It will give him influence not just in Washington, but also in London. One well-connected Labour figure predicts that “he will become the most persuasive adviser to Keir on how to deal with America”. Left for politically dead on more than one occasion in a career peppered with triumphs and disasters, this comeback adds another extraordinary line to his CV. A man who has never been shy of the limelight will be relishing a return to it.
His relations with the prime minister have not been especially close. During the early years of the Starmer leadership, Lord M shared Tony Blair’s doubts that Sir Keir had what it took to get Labour back into power. He would privately snort at the notion that there was anything which could be described as a “Starmer project” to compare with the Blair one. Some of his more acerbic private remarks are likely to have got back to Sir Keir. He didn’t much like it when, before the election, Lord M publicly declared that the Labour leader “needs to shed a few pounds”. His mischievousness and waspishness are among the hazards of giving him such a sensitive role, but Sir Keir concluded the risks were outweighed by the potential rewards of having a highly savvy personality with relevant expertise in the post. Crucially, he had a powerful promoter in Morgan McSweeney, the Number 10 chief of staff who first cut his campaigning teeth as an assistant to Lord M.
This appointment tells us that the Starmer government is a lot more fretful than it likes to let on in public about the wildness of the weather it may face when Typhoon Orange sweeps back into the White House. Despite the many domestic issues groaning on his plate, Mr McSweeney flew to the US this month for getting-to-know-you talks with key members of the Trump team. He was accompanied by Jonathan Powell, the national security adviser. These encounters reinforced the feeling that they needed a player in Washington who was a shrewd networker. Lord Mandelson is one of those people who possesses almost total recall of names, faces, dates, meetings and conversations. Though he long ago acquired his reputation as a master of the darker arts of politics, he can turn on the charm when he wants to. He also comes to the job with a record as an artful strategist “who can see round corners”. One of his tasks will be anticipating, and trying to defuse, potential points of combustion between London and Washington. The new ambassador will play an important role in trying to persuade the Americans not to sell out Ukraine. Another challenge will be convincing them that sustaining the Nato alliance is in the US’s interests as much as it is in Europe’s. He will also be there to try to influence the Trump regime’s posture towards China and the Middle East. Downing Street believes the most essential thing to know about the incoming president is that he is hyper-transactional. “Peter knows the art of the deal,” says one senior Labour figure.
His most persuasive claim on the job is his expertise in an area of potential great danger to the UK’s prosperity during Trump 2.0. Trade negotiations are a speciality subject after being trade secretary twice during the New Labour years and, even more importantly, EU commissioner for trade. Number 10 thinks it needs that experience when the president-elect has vowed to start introducing sweeping tariffs on imports into the US from his first day in office. The Starmer government is rightly perturbed –terrified might be a better word – about the hit that will be inflicted on our economy if the UK finds itself stuck in the middle of a global trade war. Lord M gave a glimpse of his approach when he recently suggested the UK should attempt to shimmy its way through conflict between the EU and the US. “We have got to find a way to have our cake and eat it.”
This appointment comes with a lot of risk. “It is a big throw of the dice,” observes one cabinet member. In his 71 years on this earth, Lord Mandelson has made many more enemies than is average for a politician. The Labour left have reacted by reaching for the garlic. “Ugh!” exclaimed Diane Abbott. “Mandelson repeatedly referred to as a ‘big hitter’ or ‘big beast’, even by himself!” He’s got a host of enemies among the British media. No profile ever forgets to mention that Tony Blair, though his best friend in politics, twice ejected him from the cabinet over scandals. His business connections, especially those with China, will come under intense scrutiny. Both British and American journalists will pay a lot more attention to the activities of our ambassador in Washington than they would normally do. If he makes missteps, they will be widely reported and with much relish by his many detractors.
Like a lot of Labour people, he has attacked the once and future US president in the past, once describing Donald Trump as “little short of a white nationalist and racist”, “anathema to mainstream British opinion”, and “reckless and a danger to the world”. Mr Trump may care – or he may choose not to. In JD Vance, he’s got a vice-president who has said more damning things than that. A fascinating question is whether the Trump court will be engaged by the Mandelson style or repelled by it. He loathed Brexit, he’s liberal and he’s internationalist, which is not a natural fit with the Maga crowd. He is a supple and sinuous personality, not character traits associated with Trump or Trump people. He is highly opinionated and can be stunningly indiscreet, which would normally be considered disqualifications for a role in diplomacy. He is ideologically flexible, entirely comfortable in the company of plutocrats and not averse to a glass of something on the deck of a superyacht. What are all vices in the eyes of many in his own party could be advantages in dealing with the Trump regime.
It will go badly for him if he can’t sustain a productive relationship with the infamously capricious and erratic next occupant of the White House. It will be extremely dangerous for him and potentially disastrous for Sir Keir if the relationship turns toxic. Says an old friend: “It is hard to know how Peter will cope if Trump starts to diss him in public. As a politician, when someone is rude about you, you’re rude about them back, but you can’t do that as a diplomat. You have to bite your tongue.”
Tongue-biting is not a skill with which Peter Mandelson is well acquainted. He will have to learn it if he is to be a success as the UK’s man in Washington.
• Andrew Rawnsley is the Chief Political Commentator of the Observer
