Sergio Perez's stint at Red Bull, according to popular belief, hinges upon his performances in the next two races on the Formula 1 calendar: the Hungarian and Belgian grands prix.
If Perez performs, quelling his dismal run of 15 points from the past six races, he saves Red Bull's management a considerable headache. This is the team's preferred option, as it gives the Mexican driver a positive mental outlook to enter the summer break with, and saves the outfit from having to bed in a new driver.
PLUS: The real choice Red Bull has to make about Perez's F1 future
In the event his poor form continues, then Red Bull has a choice to make, one being the difficult call to dispose of his services and bring someone else in. For 2024, that likely means promoting one of the RB drivers or giving Liam Lawson a whirl now that he's had RB20 experience in a test.
For 2025, finding a replacement is a somewhat easier task, as high-calibre drivers remain on the market. If Perez was to be cut loose, Carlos Sainz headlines the possible replacements, but the Spaniard's services cannot be called upon until next year.
But we've been through all this before. We've dissected the options that Red Bull has for this year and next, but not really the implications for Perez himself.
Ultimately, Perez should still have a future in F1. Although his stock may have been dented by a bruising recent time at Red Bull, he has enough credit in the bank to command a drive elsewhere should he wish to stay in the championship. Before him, Pierre Gasly and Alex Albon had similarly tormented spells at Red Bull, but nonetheless found homes outside of the energy drink manufacturer's stable.
Perez also has the pedigree in his pre-Red Bull career to lean on. Let's not forget his starring turns for Sauber and Force India/Racing Point, where he could be relied to pounce on atypical conditions and situations to capture occasional podium finishes against better machinery on the grid.
In those days, he was bestowed with the reputation of a 'tyre whisperer', an accolade that has rather faded versus Max Verstappen in frontrunning machinery. Regardless, it's a skill he retains to some degree and one that would be more of an asset to teams likely to attempt wilder strategies to break into the points.
On a point-to-point race, Perez was always going to struggle against Verstappen; the Dutchman is the best driver on the grid and, when leading, sets himself a pace target and knows exactly how to bring the tyres in to suit that. Perez doesn't have that particular tyre management string in his bow; his skills largely lie in keeping tyres alive while thrust in the context of midfield battles. The 2012 Canadian Grand Prix is one such example, where he dragged out a stint on a harder compound to make the race a one-stopper, and thus was rewarded with third place.
Pirelli's tyres are less capricious than they were in the early 2010s, but his abilities nonetheless offer midfield teams an element of strategic latitude. Expecting a long stint to overcome a congested midfield battle? Give it to Perez, he'll sort it. His maiden win at Sakhir 2020 rather followed those lines too: he extricated himself from the gravel trap following contact from Charles Leclerc and found his way through the order with just one more stop after coming in at the end of the first lap.
Technical feedback with knowledge accrued at Red Bull may also be viewed by the midfield teams as an opportunity to claim an advantage against their immediate rivals. There might only be one more year left of the current ruleset, but Perez can nonetheless indicate the areas that a team lower down the order might be lacking in compared to an outfit at the top of the pile.
In the performance stakes, the reduced pressure in a midfield environment would take the weight off his shoulders, and Perez may find that he's able to produce more consistent drives without the increasing scrutiny upon him. He'll have fewer opportunities to win races but, to be blunt, those chances aren't entirely presenting themselves at the moment.
Perez, if Red Bull decides not to keep him, will need to find a new home swiftly if he's to remain in F1 as options are fast dwindling.
Alpine, Williams, and Sauber seem to be the most suitable options available for him. Esteban Ocon is closing in on the vacant Haas seat and, although Perez could be pensioned off to RB alongside Tsunoda to keep his Mexican sponsors happy, one would suspect Perez would not fancy the chance of being dropped for Lawson or the likes of Isack Hadjar.
Alpine is seeking a driver of repute to join Gasly, and had also thrown its hat in the ring for Sainz as it considers options to replace Ocon next season. Williams has Valtteri Bottas in its sights if it cannot acquire Sainz, but Perez may be an equally valuable option - and the statement of intent for James Vowles' regeneration project. Either way, it would be mildly coincidental that Perez would partner another spurned ex-Red Bull driver at either team.
A return to Sauber may also be on the cards. It had appeared to put all of its eggs into the Sainz basket and, now that the Spaniard seems more unlikely to join the soon-to-be-Audi project by the day, it remains unclear which direction the Swiss team will look towards. Perez would be a neat option, with the pedigree that the Audi chiefs might look favourably upon. He and Nico Hulkenberg would present a proven partnership, and the duo combined well at Force India between 2014-16.
Of course, Perez might want to look elsewhere - but, if he wishes to remain in F1, there are still plenty of homes for him to consider if his Red Bull deal starts to look doubtful...
