SCOTLAND’S population is expected to grow thanks to the domestic migration – but fall as a share of the UK, new projections from the National Records of Scotland (NRS) have said.
The NRS data, published on Tuesday, said that Scotland’s population is expected to grow by 4.4% over the 10 years from 2022, from 5.4 million to 5.7 million.
Over a 25-year period, from 2022 to 2047, the Scottish population is projected to grow by 6.2% to some 5.8 million people.
However, the NRS said that “all of the projected population increase comes from inward migration to Scotland [from elsewhere in the UK]”.
“The projections suggest Scotland’s population will not experience ‘natural growth’, as there are more deaths than births projected each year going forward.”
Last November, NRS data showed that the nation's fertility rate is at its lowest ever point and deaths are outnumbering births by the highest recorded margin.
Across the UK, new figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) projected the UK population growing by almost five million over the next decade to reach 72.5 million by mid-2032, also because of migration.
By mid-2047, the UK population is projected to be 76.6 million, up 13.2% on the 2022 figure.
According to these figures Scotland’s share of the UK population could fall from 8.1% to 7.6% in the same time period, the NRS said.
NRS head of population and migration statistics Andrew White said: “The country has an ageing population, and this is projected to continue. It is projected that there will be around one third of a million more people aged 75 and older by mid-2047, as the 1960s baby boom generation gets older.
“Our projections suggest that by the middle of 2047 people of working age will make up 64% of the population, just a little less than now. In the same time period, the number of young people aged 0 to 15 is projected to fall by 9% or almost 80,000 people. The number aged 16 to 29 is projected to fall by 6% or more than 57,000 people.”
Equalities Minister Kaukab Stewart responded to the figures, saying: “These projections suggest that Scotland will continue to be an attractive country for people to live, work, study and settle in. We welcome people from around the world and other parts of the UK who want to build their lives here.
“While our population is projected to continue aging, all projected growth will come from inward migration. This shows just how crucial migrants are to ensuring Scotland has a greater proportion of people of working age to fill skills gaps, sustain public services, contribute to communities, and grow the economy.
“Within our devolved powers, we are supporting communities to retain and attract people as far as possible. We have launched Scotland’s Migration Service to help individuals and businesses navigate the immigration system, while our Addressing Depopulation Action Plan is supporting local action to help communities facing population decline.”
The UK Government has ruled out working with the SNP Government to produce a bespoke visa route for Scotland, whether through the Rural Visa Pilot proposal or John Swinney's plans for a Scottish graduate visa.
