It didn’t take long for Conservative Party strategists to show the weakness of their position. While most voters are pleased to see the back of Boris Johnson, they allowed his successor to repeat the fiction that he’s done a great job.
Never mind partygate, forget the enormous number of Covid deaths that occurred because he didn’t act quickly enough and put to one side the support he gave to MPs like Owen Paterson and Chris Pitcher who disgraced their office.
For Ms Truss and the bulk of the party members who voted for her, the important points are that Johnson “got Brexit done”, rolled out the Covid vaccine and supported Ukraine against the Russian invaders. Yet failing to distance herself from Mr Johnson will not, I believe, endear her to the population as a whole.
Read more: New Prime Minister Liz Truss faces first PMQs as new Cabinet meet for the first time - live updates
People want a fresh start and will not be impressed by someone who wants to cling to past glories. Brexit no longer has the allure that it once did to people in so-called red wall seats inhabited by former Labour voters who switched to the Tories on the promise that they would be “levelled up”.
“Levelling up” has become such a failed concept that Ms Truss didn’t even bother to mention it in her first speech as Prime Minister. Those living in the red wall seats are ready to vote Labour again, having come to the correct conclusion that it was no more than an empty election campaign slogan that had no association with reality.
Equally, the public mood is unforgiving when it comes to partygate. Most of us suffered to one degree or another during the pandemic, some much more than others. Many lost relatives whom they had not been able to visit as they were dying.
The vaccine was a boon, of course, and people’s sympathies may be with Ukraine, but don’t associate the war against Russia with Mr Johnson. People have moved on and the preoccupation of almost everyone now is the cost of living crisis.
The crisis has sharpened people’s empathy with the less fortunate in a way that didn’t happen several years ago. When Labour launched a campaign against the so-called bedroom tax - where social housing residents on benefits had their benefits cut if they were considered to be living in too large a home - it didn’t translate into widespread outrage.
The reason for that was that relatively few people were personally affected. I remember discussing this with the late First Minister Rhodri Morgan, who agreed that apart from those whose benefit was cut because of the new rule, social workers and other professionals who saw the impact on individuals were the only kind of people who would be shocked - and they were unlikely to be Tory voters anyway.
It’s certainly the case that the bedroom tax issue didn’t persuade many not to vote Conservative. The cost of living crisis has changed all that.
Yesterday a press release was put out by the British Association of Social Workers (BASW), which bluntly asserted that people will die this winter because they won’t be able to afford to heat their homes or even to eat.
According to BASW, the cost of living crisis will have a “catastrophic” impact, with more children coming into care and increased domestic violence, crime, social unrest and deaths.
The press release stated: “It’s hard to think of a profession that works more closely with people and communities at the forefront of the cost of living crisis than social work – so what social workers say about it should make those in power sit up and listen.
“Some 242 social workers were surveyed by BASW:
- 95% strongly agreed with the statement that vulnerable people may die this winter due to the cost of living crisis;
- 95% strongly agreed that domestic violence will increase;
- 75% strongly agreed that more children will come into care due to the cost of living crisis;
- 55% strongly agreed that caseloads will become unmanageable;
- 43% of social workers fear they will struggle to pay their own bills;
- 20% of them expect to use a food bank themselves soon, while 9% have already used a food bank recently.
BASW chief executive Ruth Allen said: “Social workers are among the best placed professionals to comment on the cost of living crisis. What they have told us is shocking and an important insight into the impact on real lives.
“To hear of social workers being forced to use food banks shows how deeply poverty and governmental neglect has penetrated.”
Ms Allen said she had written to the new Prime Minister highlighting the urgency of the situation.
She added: “This winter thousands of children and adults will be cold in their own homes and that simply is not acceptable in 2022. The time for talking is over. We need action from the government.”
This story will cut through because - unlike with the bedroom tax - nearly everyone is deeply worried about the impact of energy price increases on their personal finances.
Meanwhile a Conservative MS, Dr Altaf Hussain, reacted on Twitter to the new Prime Minister’s first address to the nation in the following tone-deaf way: “Great speech. Watch it from my second home in Srinagar, Kashmir.”
There is speculation that Ms Truss may announce a scheme that would see part of people’s electricity bills paid by the UK Government, possibly as a loan to be repaid over a number of years.
She is also, of course, touting tax cuts as a way to stimulate the economy - a measure that would disproportionately help those who are well off. The fact is, in my view, that people have made their minds up about the Conservatives. They are beyond redemption and are heading for defeat.
Boris Johnson’s tenure as PM was short. Liz Truss’s will be shorter.
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