Alaska’s at-large congressional election will pit incumbent Democratic Rep. Mary Peltola against at least two Republicans – 2022 congressional candidate Nick Begich and Alaska Lt. Gov. Nancy Dahlstrom – in the state’s four-way ranked-choice vote.
The three candidates easily claimed the top three spots in Tuesday’s primary, with nine others each with less than 1 percent of the vote vying for last November ballot position in the nonpartisan primary. That winner had not been called Wednesday morning, and may not be for days since ballots postmarked by Tuesday are counted if they are received within 10 days.
The Associated Press called the contest for the top three at 1:08 a.m. Eastern Time on Wednesday, with Peltola claiming nearly 51 percent of the vote — a significant threshold if it holds and she can repeat it in November with fewer opponents. Begich finished second with 27 percent and Dahlstrom had 20 percent when counting stopped around 5 a.m.
The seat is vital to Republicans’ push to increase their slim House majority. It is one of five districts President Donald Trump won in 2020 that are currently held by Democrats.
In 2020, Alaska voters approved a ballot measure to implement ranked-choice voting and a nonpartisan top-four primary. Voters in November will rank the four contenders in order of preference, assuming no one withdraws before then. If the leader does not get more than 50 percent in the first tally, the fourth-place finisher is eliminated and his or her votes are added to the voter’s second choice until one candidate gets a majority.
The system helped Peltola win her seat in a 2022 special election after the death of longtime Republican Rep. Don Young. She then won the regular general election later that fall. In both races, former vice presidential candidate Sarah Palin and Begich split the Republican vote and Peltola received a majority after two rounds of ranked choice elimination.
It appears that Begich, grandson of former Democratic Alaska Rep. Nick Begich, will remain in the race, having finished ahead of other Republican candidates. He pledged in April to drop out if he was not the top Republican vote getter, as part of a larger push to consolidate support for Republican candidates in ranked-choice races.
Dahlstrom, who received an endorsement in June from Trump, was focused all along on the general election, her campaign told Roll Call prior to the primary. Republicans backing her, convinced the ballot process confuses voters, plan a “rank the red” campaign to encourage people to choose the two Republican candidates ahead of Peltola.
The fourth spot was up for grabs, with a slew of candidates led by Republican Matthew Salisbury all with 600 votes or less.
Peltola had a clear fundraising advantage ahead of the primary. As of July 31, she had $2.8 million on hand, compared to Dahlstrom’s $317,000 and Begich’s $172,000.
Outside spending in the race included support for Peltola from Center Forward Committee, a super PAC funded in large part by Chevron and ConocoPhillips. The Congressional Leadership Fund, a super PAC associated with Republican congressional leadership, spent in favor of Dahlstrom. The fundraising arm of the House Freedom Caucus spent in support of Begich.
Vote Alaska Before Party, a liberal Super PAC, spent $924,000 on the race and aired an ad that attacked Dahlstrom, Begich and Republican Gerald Heikes, a perennial candidate, for their opposition to abortion rights.
While ostensibly an attack, it also may have been intended to raise Heikes’ profile among voters who might otherwise support Dahlstrom or Begich. That did not happen however: With an estimated 87 percent of the vote counted, Heikes had 371 votes and was running seventh.
Inside Elections with Nathan L. Gonzales rates the November race as Tilt Democratic.
Niels Lesniewski and Herb Jackson contributed to this report.
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